So it's Slovakia. They're currently struggling against Azerbaijan and are certainly no world beaters.
On the other side of the draw Bosnia have been poor as well and Germany are currently giving NI the hosing that's been coming their way for a while.
Qualification definitely looks a bit more doable with Wales now out of the picture, although we could do with us/Slovakia getting the home draw for the playoff final.
maybe we're not going to Bratislava after all.
Im reading elsewhere that an Emergency Panel in UEFA can change the order of Paths, and Ireland may yet be moved up to Path A, and with good reason.
The competition rules state that only the four group winners in each section, cannot be moved to a higher group, which in Path B, is Bosnia.
All of the other 3 left, can technically be moved.
Now, it might seem obvious with only 4 teams left in Path B, that these 4 should make up the semis.
However, as on one team is left in Path A, and one of the top 4 in Path C, Finland has also qualified, it looks like Path A will be made up of
Iceland, Isreal, Hungary, Romania (assuming Bulgaria take Finlands place)
This means that the 6th ran Path C team will get a home semi final draw, while Ireland who ranked 7 places higher than them must play away.
I think Ireland have a case to demand being pushed up to Path A and taking the next available home semi final, as the only three teams ranked above them, will already have semis.
Path A should then be completed by the two lowest ranking team eligible to play off, Hungary and Romania, to give Iceland the best chance as a Path A team.
By my accounting, Path A should be
Iceland v Romania
Ireland v Hungary
Path B
Bosnia v Isreal
Slovakia v N Ireland
Path C
Scotland v Isreal
Serbia v Bulgaria
This is the fairest outcome
Wow I never heard of anything so complicated in my life.
It is insane.
If we are getting Slovakia is it defo on the 26th???
Quick look at Slovakia: Dubravka of Newcastle is their 'keeper, good backline with a couple of Serie A players, one in the Bundesliga, one in La Liga, similar in midfield actually plus Hamsik, formerly of Napoli, but their frontline looks light. Rest of the squad plays mostly for middling teams around Europe. It looks doable, particularly if McCarthy, Brady and Long are back as viable options and two from Connolly, Parrott and Obafemi are playing regularly (and scoring). But everyone will have to be near their best, individually, and they'll have to click collectively also. At least now McGoldrick, Robinson, Maguire and Collins have all broken their international ducks.
Last edited by samhaydenjr; 20/11/2019 at 1:18 AM.
I hear the draws will be determined by quantum entanglement.
Goals scored in each game throughout the NL and qualifying campaign will be converted to the Kelvin scale and totals will be used to assign seeding for the tournament. A bold move.
What the hell is going on? I did pass maths in my Leaving Cert. This is just cruel
I don’t know where that came from. But according to their rules Ireland won’t be moved.
b. If four or more teams from a league enter the play-offs, a path with four teams from the league in question must be formed.
16.03 b
https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles...5_DOWNLOAD.pdf
The committee can still have a say in stuff like seeding principles and hosts restrictions. But don’t think they can or will mess with 1 of the only 2 fundamental rules that they published.
pretty sure Path B - ours - is set. We'll be away to Slovakia.
So is Path D, with the minnows.
Paths A and C will need a draw to decide where Bulgaria, Israel, Romania and Hungary go.
If I were them I'd prefer Path A.
I’ve done a bit of digging and ELO make Slovakia favourite vs Ireland and it makes sense along with the comments on this thread (how you’ve seen them play, and what level/league their players are at). Away ELO gives us 35% chance win vs Slovakia.
But its actually good news on the other teams, both ranked well below both Slovakia and Ireland.
When I run all the figures I get:
To Qualify
Slovakia 35%
Bosnia 30%
Ireland 20%
N. Ireland 15%
We go up to 25% if we would have home advantage for the final. We are better than Bosnia but they have a better chance of qualifying still now because they get the easier semi and home advantage in that semi.
I’m not sure exactly how accurate ELO predictions are but probably the best estimate we can get so far ....
[I see PP have predictions up as well, they are way too short on Bosnia in my opinion.]
Last edited by davidatrb; 20/11/2019 at 10:13 AM.
My brain has been done in since Monday with this.
What are the circumstances that we get a home final, Us and the themmuns win is it?
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
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