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Thread: Slovakia v Ireland - Euro 2020 Playoff Semi Final, 26 March 2020

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    Slovakia v Ireland - Euro 2020 Playoff Semi Final, 26 March 2020

    So it's Slovakia. They're currently struggling against Azerbaijan and are certainly no world beaters.

    On the other side of the draw Bosnia have been poor as well and Germany are currently giving NI the hosing that's been coming their way for a while.

    Qualification definitely looks a bit more doable with Wales now out of the picture, although we could do with us/Slovakia getting the home draw for the playoff final.
    Keane O'Shea Given Best Long Cox

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    maybe we're not going to Bratislava after all.

    Im reading elsewhere that an Emergency Panel in UEFA can change the order of Paths, and Ireland may yet be moved up to Path A, and with good reason.

    The competition rules state that only the four group winners in each section, cannot be moved to a higher group, which in Path B, is Bosnia.

    All of the other 3 left, can technically be moved.

    Now, it might seem obvious with only 4 teams left in Path B, that these 4 should make up the semis.

    However, as on one team is left in Path A, and one of the top 4 in Path C, Finland has also qualified, it looks like Path A will be made up of

    Iceland, Isreal, Hungary, Romania (assuming Bulgaria take Finlands place)

    This means that the 6th ran Path C team will get a home semi final draw, while Ireland who ranked 7 places higher than them must play away.

    I think Ireland have a case to demand being pushed up to Path A and taking the next available home semi final, as the only three teams ranked above them, will already have semis.

    Path A should then be completed by the two lowest ranking team eligible to play off, Hungary and Romania, to give Iceland the best chance as a Path A team.

    By my accounting, Path A should be

    Iceland v Romania
    Ireland v Hungary

    Path B

    Bosnia v Isreal
    Slovakia v N Ireland

    Path C

    Scotland v Isreal
    Serbia v Bulgaria

    This is the fairest outcome

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    International Prospect tricky_colour's Avatar
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    Wow I never heard of anything so complicated in my life.


    It is insane.

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    If we are getting Slovakia is it defo on the 26th???

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    Quote Originally Posted by Insidetherock View Post
    maybe we're not going to Bratislava after all.

    Im reading elsewhere that an Emergency Panel in UEFA can change the order of Paths, and Ireland may yet be moved up to Path A, and with good reason.

    The competition rules state that only the four group winners in each section, cannot be moved to a higher group, which in Path B, is Bosnia.

    All of the other 3 left, can technically be moved.

    Now, it might seem obvious with only 4 teams left in Path B, that these 4 should make up the semis.

    However, as on one team is left in Path A, and one of the top 4 in Path C, Finland has also qualified, it looks like Path A will be made up of

    Iceland, Isreal, Hungary, Romania (assuming Bulgaria take Finlands place)

    This means that the 6th ran Path C team will get a home semi final draw, while Ireland who ranked 7 places higher than them must play away.

    I think Ireland have a case to demand being pushed up to Path A and taking the next available home semi final, as the only three teams ranked above them, will already have semis.

    Path A should then be completed by the two lowest ranking team eligible to play off, Hungary and Romania, to give Iceland the best chance as a Path A team.

    By my accounting, Path A should be

    Iceland v Romania
    Ireland v Hungary

    Path B

    Bosnia v Isreal
    Slovakia v N Ireland

    Path C

    Scotland v Isreal
    Serbia v Bulgaria

    This is the fairest outcome
    This is a bigger mood-killer than VAR.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Insidetherock View Post
    maybe we're not going to Bratislava after all.

    Im reading elsewhere that an Emergency Panel in UEFA can change the order of Paths, and Ireland may yet be moved up to Path A, and with good reason.

    The competition rules state that only the four group winners in each section, cannot be moved to a higher group, which in Path B, is Bosnia.

    All of the other 3 left, can technically be moved.

    Now, it might seem obvious with only 4 teams left in Path B, that these 4 should make up the semis.

    However, as on one team is left in Path A, and one of the top 4 in Path C, Finland has also qualified, it looks like Path A will be made up of

    Iceland, Isreal, Hungary, Romania (assuming Bulgaria take Finlands place)

    This means that the 6th ran Path C team will get a home semi final draw, while Ireland who ranked 7 places higher than them must play away.

    I think Ireland have a case to demand being pushed up to Path A and taking the next available home semi final, as the only three teams ranked above them, will already have semis.

    Path A should then be completed by the two lowest ranking team eligible to play off, Hungary and Romania, to give Iceland the best chance as a Path A team.

    By my accounting, Path A should be

    Iceland v Romania
    Ireland v Hungary

    Path B

    Bosnia v Isreal
    Slovakia v N Ireland

    Path C

    Scotland v Isreal
    Serbia v Bulgaria

    This is the fairest outcome
    I'd fancy our chances against Hungary or Iceland

    But are Romania any good these days?

    Also. Can it go to penalties? Is it worth naming Dave O'Leary on the bench just in case?

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    Quick look at Slovakia: Dubravka of Newcastle is their 'keeper, good backline with a couple of Serie A players, one in the Bundesliga, one in La Liga, similar in midfield actually plus Hamsik, formerly of Napoli, but their frontline looks light. Rest of the squad plays mostly for middling teams around Europe. It looks doable, particularly if McCarthy, Brady and Long are back as viable options and two from Connolly, Parrott and Obafemi are playing regularly (and scoring). But everyone will have to be near their best, individually, and they'll have to click collectively also. At least now McGoldrick, Robinson, Maguire and Collins have all broken their international ducks.
    Last edited by samhaydenjr; 20/11/2019 at 2:18 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Insidetherock View Post
    maybe we're not going to Bratislava after all.

    Im reading elsewhere that an Emergency Panel in UEFA can change the order of Paths, and Ireland may yet be moved up to Path A, and with good reason.
    Where are you reading?

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    International Prospect tricky_colour's Avatar
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    I hear the draws will be determined by quantum entanglement.

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    Goals scored in each game throughout the NL and qualifying campaign will be converted to the Kelvin scale and totals will be used to assign seeding for the tournament. A bold move.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkStu View Post
    Goals scored in each game throughout the NL and qualifying campaign will be converted to the Kelvin scale and totals will be used to assign seeding for the tournament. A bold move.
    You fell for the insidetherock scenario, now you're a gullible ex pat trying to extricate yourself from the deranged by resorting to add in gobbeldygook into the mix. You and insidetherock are as one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tricky_colour View Post
    I hear the draws will be determined by quantum entanglement.
    My Cat ; Schrodinger looks a little confused about that !
    Last edited by seanfhear; 20/11/2019 at 4:25 AM.

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    What the hell is going on? I did pass maths in my Leaving Cert. This is just cruel

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    I don’t know where that came from. But according to their rules Ireland won’t be moved.

    b. If four or more teams from a league enter the play-offs, a path with four teams from the league in question must be formed.

    16.03 b

    https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles...5_DOWNLOAD.pdf

    The committee can still have a say in stuff like seeding principles and hosts restrictions. But don’t think they can or will mess with 1 of the only 2 fundamental rules that they published.

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    pretty sure Path B - ours - is set. We'll be away to Slovakia.
    So is Path D, with the minnows.

    Paths A and C will need a draw to decide where Bulgaria, Israel, Romania and Hungary go.
    If I were them I'd prefer Path A.

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    Quote Originally Posted by samhaydenjr View Post
    Quick look at Slovakia: Dubravka of Newcastle is their 'keeper, good backline with a couple of Serie A players, one in the Bundesliga, one in La Liga, similar in midfield actually plus Hamsik, formerly of Napoli, but their frontline looks light. Rest of the squad plays mostly for middling teams around Europe. It looks doable, particularly if McCarthy, Brady and Long are back as viable options and two from Connolly, Parrott and Obafemi are playing regularly (and scoring). But everyone will have to be near their best, individually, and they'll have to click collectively also. At least now McGoldrick, Robinson, Maguire and Collins have all broken their international ducks.
    I watched the Wales game away in Slovakia last month. They've some tidy players but yep are definitely beatable. I felt Wales should have beaten them, although Wales' attacking options are far better than ours.

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    I’ve done a bit of digging and ELO make Slovakia favourite vs Ireland and it makes sense along with the comments on this thread (how you’ve seen them play, and what level/league their players are at). Away ELO gives us 35% chance win vs Slovakia.

    But its actually good news on the other teams, both ranked well below both Slovakia and Ireland.

    When I run all the figures I get:

    To Qualify
    Slovakia 35%
    Bosnia 30%
    Ireland 20%
    N. Ireland 15%

    We go up to 25% if we would have home advantage for the final. We are better than Bosnia but they have a better chance of qualifying still now because they get the easier semi and home advantage in that semi.

    I’m not sure exactly how accurate ELO predictions are but probably the best estimate we can get so far ....

    [I see PP have predictions up as well, they are way too short on Bosnia in my opinion.]
    Last edited by davidatrb; 20/11/2019 at 11:13 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Insidetherock View Post
    Path B

    Bosnia v Isreal
    Slovakia v N Ireland

    Path C

    Scotland v Isreal
    Serbia v Bulgaria
    I know Israel likes stealing other people's land, but now they're taking another country's playoff place.

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    My brain has been done in since Monday with this.

    What are the circumstances that we get a home final, Us and the themmuns win is it?
    DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?

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    Quote Originally Posted by BonnieShels View Post
    My brain has been done in since Monday with this.

    What are the circumstances that we get a home final, Us and the themmuns win is it?
    There will be a draw Friday morning, so decide which semi final winners have home advantage in the final

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