TONIGHT'S games 25th OCT

[Nesta99]

Agreed as always the transfers in our league over the winter will be pivotal.
The league is shaping up to be better next year, Derry will improve as will Sligo in buckos second year,cork have to improve and shels with some money behind them should be better than ucd.
I expect harps to stay up.

I dunno, I fancy Drogheda to win the play-off. They have momentum, pace and can score. I know Harps have the guile and experience in play-offs but they struggle to score and a side going at them with pace especially on the wings and up top so can trouble them. It's an odd way to predict a game but I think the weather will determine the outcome - Harps are a stronger side so heavy pitches after days of rain will suit them better especially in a wind swept Finn Park. The small pitch in United Park is a disadvantage to Drogheda imo and Harps can use that to keep it compact. I'm assuming the premier side gets home advantage first(?), if Drogheda are behind going back to United Park they will have a job against a packed defensive setup. I dont like this play-off pairing as I like Harps but having the Louth Derby back would be good also. Purely from a crowd perspective for Dundalk there is more advantage to having Drogheda win, cuts a couple of ther longer away trips. 2-1 to the Drogs is my call.

[pineapple stu]

First Division side at home first

[Ezeikial]

100 years + of history, set records tonight for most wins most clean sheets and finished second, have to acknowledge dundalk performance this season.
Season was often shorter in the past which makes comparisons difficult but we are living in extraordinary times

Are the 'most wins' and 'most clean sheets' both all-time club records?

I'll save you the bother of any further trawling through the history books. It seems that the Rovers manager has confirmed that the 21 clean sheets for Alan Mannus is a record

“We’re broken our own record of clean sheets which is what we wanted to do as one of our targets at the beginning of the season,” purred Bradley. “

https://www.sseairtricityleague.ie/n...ictory/id-3085

The 21 clean sheets is impressive, even if it is a bit behind what Gary Rogers managed this season

[marinobohs]

Agreed as always the transfers in our league over the winter will be pivotal.
The league is shaping up to be better next year, Derry will improve as will Sligo in buckos second year,cork have to improve and shels with some money behind them should be better than ucd.
I expect harps to stay up.

So everyone, bar Bohs, will improve Lets hope that's as accurate as our 'relegation' that you were predicting at the start of the season, truly the gift....

[sbgawa]

TBF i dont mention Waterford , Harps , Pats or Bohs as likely to improve, so i havent really singled you out.
Also unlike most of those teams you have had a good year so improvement is harder to achieve.
I'm not always out to get you Marino
I don't remember predicting Bohs to go down this year , i presume you are talking about when i said it was Shels long term plan to get promoted and become the anchor tenant in the new Stadium but that was never about this year (2019).
Your board made a good start on shoring up the team by resigning a bunch of players so you would'nt have the mass exodus that happened last year so they are awake and thats a good start to 2020 for you.

[SkStu]

TBF i dont mention Waterford , Harps , Pats or Bohs as likely to improve, so i havent really singled you out.
Also unlike most of those teams you have had a good year so improvement is harder to achieve.
I'm not always out to get you Marino
I don't remember predicting Bohs to go down this year , i presume you are talking about when i said it was Shels long term plan to get promoted and become the anchor tenant in the new Stadium but that was never about this year (2019).
Your board made a good start on shoring up the team by resigning a bunch of players so you would'nt have the mass exodus that happened last year so they are awake and thats a good start to 2020 for you.

They are awake and notoriously woke.

I said earlier in the season that they havent shown a "plan" to be afraid of and i dont know how they would ever position themselves as "anchor tenants" in a new Dalymount, whatever that means. It will clearly be a shared stadium and Bohs have spent the last 5 years putting down deep roots in the community and surrounds. Those will not be easily ripped out. If there is one thing we know, private investment does not constitute a long term plan in LOI.

[sbgawa]

I'm actually on your side Stu , no love for Shels,
By Anchor tenant i mean "most successful" and likely to attract the floating fan.
Whichever club bohs or Shels is most successful on the pitch will be the one that gets the most attention and corporate interest going forward.
I fully expect to see more private investment in Shels now they are up.
Long did a great job this year and qualifying for europe will give extra budget to fend off shels so the timing for a great season was perfect.

[SkStu]

I am definitely not having a go at you sbgawa, just continue to be baffled by this "plan" of theirs.

Bohs have had little to no on-the-pitch success over the last 7 years other than surviving as a top flight club. During that time we have managed to grow our membership, grow our core and have captured more than our fair share of the floating fan / football tourist market. Our brand is far stronger than Shels and our platform is more sustainable. I agree that investment in Shels is something of a risk but i dont see it the same way as you do - it is not an either/or. If they are successful they will attract more fans but they will not eat into our fanbase or be able to materially hijack the brand that Bohs have built. At the height of Shels' success earlier this century, they were only attracting around 2k fans to league games iirc. What will change?

To what extent will they continue to be invested in do you think? To achieve meaningful success, they have to break through the ceiling of Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers which is going to require a lot more than what it takes to be best in the first division. I dont know how serious their backers are. I really dont.

I also dont know if they are doing the basics right (marketing, community outreach, youth model) and if they are not, it really just means that it will all come crashing down around them, again, sooner or later.

[Ezeikial]

Any short term move into Tolka Park while Dalymount is being re-developed is likely to bring it's own set of challenges for Bohs, the off-pitch momentum and progress that they have made over the last few years is little short of extraordinary. The average attendance from Owen Heary's final season in 2014 to Keith Long's 5th season in 2019 has increased by 100% from around 1400 to over 2800 per match.

Qualifying for Europe may bring it's own set of pressures by creating new expectations for Bohs in the coming seasons, but it also brings new finance and new excitement for fans in the short term.

Shelbourne being back in the premier division hardly has much bearing on the progress at Bohs other than the positive potential of adding another local rivalry into the mix. Shelbourne will have plenty of big challenges in the seasons ahead - if they should be watching Bohs closely, that perhaps that should be focused on learning how to grow a club in the community and create positive matchday experiences

[joey B]

Drogheda will bring a one goal advantage to Finn Park on Friday. Drogheda deserved to win but we are still in with a shout,we had our 2 best chances after going behind Cretaro hitting the woodwork with the best one.
The next goal is obviously crucial,whoever gets it will win the tie I feel........

[Dalymountrower]

Any short term move into Tolka Park while Dalymount is being re-developed is likely to bring it's own set of challenges for Bohs, the off-pitch momentum and progress that they have made over the last few years is little short of extraordinary. The average attendance from Owen Heary's final season in 2014 to Keith Long's 5th season in 2019 has increased by 100% from around 1400 to over 2800 per match.

Qualifying for Europe may bring it's own set of pressures by creating new expectations for Bohs in the coming seasons, but it also brings new finance and new excitement for fans in the short term.

Shelbourne being back in the premier division hardly has much bearing on the progress at Bohs other than the positive potential of adding another local rivalry into the mix. Shelbourne will have plenty of big challenges in the seasons ahead - if they should be watching Bohs closely, that perhaps that should be focused on learning how to grow a club in the community and create positive matchday experiences

Agree with the above, although no particular strong feelings about Shels one way or the other, it will be an extra four "derby" games. I grew up around Tolka and other than match days there has never been a Shels " presence " around Drumcondra. Hope they do well , as our next manager is learning the ropes there, but not at our expense.

[sbgawa]

I am definitely not having a go at you sbgawa, just continue to be baffled by this "plan" of theirs.

Bohs have had little to no on-the-pitch success over the last 7 years other than surviving as a top flight club. During that time we have managed to grow our membership, grow our core and have captured more than our fair share of the floating fan / football tourist market. Our brand is far stronger than Shels and our platform is more sustainable. I agree that investment in Shels is something of a risk but i dont see it the same way as you do - it is not an either/or. If they are successful they will attract more fans but they will not eat into our fanbase or be able to materially hijack the brand that Bohs have built. At the height of Shels' success earlier this century, they were only attracting around 2k fans to league games iirc. What will change?

To what extent will they continue to be invested in do you think? To achieve meaningful success, they have to break through the ceiling of Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers which is going to require a lot more than what it takes to be best in the first division. I dont know how serious their backers are. I really dont.

I also dont know if they are doing the basics right (marketing, community outreach, youth model) and if they are not, it really just means that it will all come crashing down around them, again, sooner or later.

Bohs have averaged between 1500 and 2000 per year for the last 7 or 8 years and this year it jumped to 2800.
Having a successful season is a big part of the reason for that as much as any good work in the community so a poor season next year could see the attendance's drop off.
If anything expectations will be higher next year having qualified for Europe.
In that scenerio if Shels are having a better go of it on the pitch then they become the media darlings,
Ironically the ongoing dithering and pushing back of the stadium may dissuade any investment for a while.
Looking at Peak6 in Dundalk and Dermot Desmond in Rovers its not a stretch to say a club in Dublin with a new Stadium (i live in hope) might be investable and all the more investable with a bit of onfield success

[Ezeikial]

Bohs have averaged between 1500 and 2000 per year for the last 7 or 8 years and this year it jumped to 2800.
Having a successful season is a big part of the reason for that as much as any good work in the community so a poor season next year could see the attendance's drop off.
If anything expectations will be higher next year having qualified for Europe.

We all have access to the same data, courtesy of Nigel's attendance analysis; it is clear from this that the jump in attendance is not the one-season wonder that you present

2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
2856	2148	2006	1627	1724	1395

Although this years increase has been very impressive, it is easy to see the significant progression in the last 5 seasons. Using 2014 attendance as a reference point, it is easy to see the progress made, building up to a 44% increase in 2017 and 54% increase in 2018 etc

2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
205	154	144	117	124	100

Having a good season in 2019 was a big help to build on the off-pitch work including many Jodi sellouts, but Bohs were building attendances and supporter commitment right throughout Keith Longs managerial reign. One off colour season would not derail that

[SkStu]

Bohs have averaged between 1500 and 2000 per year for the last 7 or 8 years and this year it jumped to 2800.
Having a successful season is a big part of the reason for that as much as any good work in the community so a poor season next year could see the attendance's drop off.
If anything expectations will be higher next year having qualified for Europe.

A fair analysis of the data just doesn't prove the above out. In the last two seasons of the data below we were playing in and qualifying for European action. We weren't getting even 1500 per game. The jump from 2016-2019 is +1200 per game average attendance over that period, coinciding with a lot of the work that was being done in the community. We jumped ~400 in one season and ~850 over the next 2 with, admittedly, 700 of that in the last season. Our average attendance was around 3100 in the first series of games (when nobody knew how well we would do) before it tapered off during our most successful season in the last 8-9. I just don't see how you can draw the conclusions you have.

I agree that our challenge will be to sustain it at the 2700-2900 mark as we are fairly limited in how much more it can grow.

Bohs - 2,856 (2,148; 2,006; 1,627; 1,724; 1,395; 1,597; 1,496; 1,488)

In that scenerio if Shels are having a better go of it on the pitch then they become the media darlings,
Ironically the ongoing dithering and pushing back of the stadium may dissuade any investment for a while.
Looking at Peak6 in Dundalk and Dermot Desmond in Rovers its not a stretch to say a club in Dublin with a new Stadium (i live in hope) might be investable and all the more investable with a bit of onfield success

I just don't get that - it never helped them attract a decent, sustainable fanbase before. And even if it transpires that they become more successful than Bohs and Rovers and become these "media darlings" (and that is a really big "if"), it doesn't matter a damn if the foundations are not solid (and i have seen nothing to suggest they are).

Anyway, all Bohs should keep doing is all that they have been over the last 4-5 years.

[Ezeikial]

Ironically the ongoing dithering and pushing back of the stadium may dissuade any investment for a while.
Looking at Peak6 in Dundalk and Dermot Desmond in Rovers its not a stretch to say a club in Dublin with a new Stadium (i live in hope) might be investable and all the more investable with a bit of onfield success

It's interesting to note that the current Bohs attendance figures are ahead of what Rovers recorded 2 seasons ago, while their 2019 league performance also shows Bohs ahead of where Rovers finished in 2017 (60 points v 54 points; 1.67 points per match v 1.64).

If Rovers can't maintain their recent momentum in the next few years, is it possible Bohs might present a greater threat to Rovers claim to be Dublin No 1 club?

[dejadem]

1st leg goal, Chris Lyons

https://twitter.com/DroghedaUnited/s...40758202748928

[wexfordned]

It's interesting to note that the current Bohs attendance figures are ahead of what Rovers recorded 2 seasons ago, while their 2019 league performance also shows Bohs ahead of where Rovers finished in 2017 (60 points v 54 points; 1.67 points per match v 1.64).

If Rovers can't maintain their recent momentum in the next few years, is it possible Bohs might present a greater threat to Rovers claim to be Dublin No 1 club?

Bohs problem is that they were turning away fans this season and will find it difficult to keep increasing avg attendances purely due to limitations of capacity in the ground.

For all the talk you hear about "the project" in Tallaght and their brilliant academy Bohs not Shamrock Rovers are the example on how to put down roots in the local community. The are almost like a rural GAA club in how they have established such a strong link in the local community.

The link up with St Kevins has been a success for both parties with clear links for promotion from underage teams and real opportunities for regular 1st team football for young players

[nigel-harps1954]

Drogheda will bring a one goal advantage to Finn Park on Friday. Drogheda deserved to win but we are still in with a shout,we had our 2 best chances after going behind Cretaro hitting the woodwork with the best one.
The next goal is obviously crucial,whoever gets it will win the tie I feel........

Harps were really awful. Drogheda were marginally better. It was an awful game between two really poor teams.

Harps would want to attempt to play some football on Friday night.

[sbgawa]

A fair analysis of the data just doesn't prove the above out. In the last two seasons of the data below we were playing in and qualifying for European action. We weren't getting even 1500 per game. The jump from 2016-2019 is +1200 per game average attendance over that period, coinciding with a lot of the work that was being done in the community. We jumped ~400 in one season and ~850 over the next 2 with, admittedly, 700 of that in the last season. Our average attendance was around 3100 in the first series of games (when nobody knew how well we would do) before it tapered off during our most successful season in the last 8-9. I just don't see how you can draw the conclusions you have.

I agree that our challenge will be to sustain it at the 2700-2900 mark as we are fairly limited in how much more it can grow.

Bohs - 2,856 (2,148; 2,006; 1,627; 1,724; 1,395; 1,597; 1,496; 1,488)



I just don't get that - it never helped them attract a decent, sustainable fanbase before. And even if it transpires that they become more successful than Bohs and Rovers and become these "media darlings" (and that is a really big "if"), it doesn't matter a damn if the foundations are not solid (and i have seen nothing to suggest they are).

Anyway, all Bohs should keep doing is all that they have been over the last 4-5 years.

Shels don't have to have the biggest crowds to be successful , look at dundalk for example, peak 6 don't care about an extra few hundred at the game hence the lack of even a gew relatively easy improvements in oriel, tbe attendance money is chicken feed
Compared to Euro money etc.
I agree the bohs approach is more sustainable ,but cheque book investors like peak 6 don't need to worry unduly about crowds.
The off season this year is goin gv to be interesting.
Will pats go again?
Will shels go full time?
Only 3 and a half months till the league starts
I might even turn up in the Jodi for your home game against shels
I'm not putting down the work bohs have done in the community I'm just making the point that 650 of the 1200 growth has come in one season thus I think more likely link is to success this year.
The work going on should mean your new floor is 2000 + rather than 1500 and that is positive and allows a board to plan

[nigel-harps1954]

Why wouldn't Dundalks investors care about a drop in attendances? They still need to run the club week to week. If there's only 1,700 paying in rather than 2,700, you're looking at a drop of around €8,000. That'd put a right dent in anyones wage bill, Europe or no Europe.