I think first off, as with any discussion forum, it's just my opinion and I don't obviously expect that everyone has to agree.
The budget difference isn't really relevant; the gap didn't reflect the budget gap, but that doesn't mean Rapid weren't the better team. Dundalk certainly did better than I would have expected, but that's not the argument here. Rapid were a little bit fortunate to win it, but the flip side is they pulled through in the last 10 and were 4-2 up before a last-kick penalty put a bit of a different gloss on the scoreline.
But I will note that you made no mention of the Dundalk opener being (a) really fortunate and (b) offside. That gave Dundalk something to hold on to from the start. What would have happened had Rapid gone 1-0 up with their long-range strike instead? Confidence changes on both sides and it's a different game potentially.
Yes, Duffy should have scored alright, but if you argue Sloggett should have scored his header, you have to factor in Rapid's very similar one I think which was also just wide. I think you're unduly biased towards Dundalk chances in your analysis, and I don't think you can evaluate a game just by counting your chances.
On balance of play, I thought Rapid were pressing more, created more, and always looked the more dangerous. I thought they pressed Dundalk into more defensive mistakes than Molde did. The
stats for the game show Dundalk scored with every shot they had on target (which included two penalties), but Rapid had 23 shots compared to 10, 62% of possession, and 8 corners to 5.
I know you can read too much into stats, and I know Dundalk will argue that they won't have such a bad night in nets again (even though it's been pointed out as a weakness for years...) but it certainly ties into what I felt watching the game, which is that Rapid were controlling it more than Dundalk. Yes, they won narrowly and I'm not arguing that 4-1 would have been a fairer score. But I do think that if I were Rapid looking at the return game, I'd be focussing on cutting out the crap at the back, and I'm not sure Dundalk (a) can raise their attacking game a huge amount or (b) will get that lucky in front of goal again. I would imagine that Rapid's improvement is easier to come by than Dundalk's.
All speculation of course - welcome to foot.ie. But that's my reasoning for it.
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