Adam Idah F. Celtic b.2001

[Eirambler]

I think you are doing him a bit of disservice - he did everything pretty much right with the exception of actually putting the ball in the net and in situations like that you need the bit of luck with the bounce of the ball (which he didn't get with the shot but did with the rebound). Irrespective of whether he actually scored the goal or not - he was responsible for it - and he has now been the key figure in scoring two crucial goals for Celtic in the past few months. Last night's goal guarantees Celtic a minimum of £1m bonus as well as a further £800K for improving the league position. It is still possible for Celtic get get seeded for the knockout which would significantly improve their chances of progressing and getting to the last 16 is worth £11m. Idah repaid a nice chunk of the transfer fee last night.

Now - none of this takes away from his lack of goals - but Idah was and never will be a prolific goalscorer. His best attributes are the rest of the stuff he does, when he has the motivation he gets through a tremendous amount of donkey work - and it is consistency in that department that I think is more important than scoring a stack full of goals from his perspective.

In fairness "putting the ball in the net" is the number one objective for a centre forward.

I don't know about the xG (or particularly care because I think it's a ridiculous "stat") but for me that needed to go through the keepers legs.

[Olé Olé]

Very unfair to say he fluffed it. He took the pass well, used his strength to get ahead of the defender and keep his balance, and got a good shot away. I've looked at replays and I think the keeper did exceptionally well, his positioning and anticipation were superb. Idah had no space to try to round him and very limited room to put the ball anywhere that wouldn't be saved. I think Idah deserves credit, and the luck he got.

Back to this old chestnut: what was the post shot XG? If it's high I'll lose all faith in that metric . Looking at the replays the keeper made himself the favourite in the situation imho.

Agreed. The keeper made the goal almost impossible. But they got one and, in reality, Idah made it happen.

[tetsujin1979]

Very unfair to say he fluffed it. He took the pass well, used his strength to get ahead of the defender and keep his balance, and got a good shot away. I've looked at replays and I think the keeper did exceptionally well, his positioning and anticipation were superb. Idah had no space to try to round him and very limited room to put the ball anywhere that wouldn't be saved. I think Idah deserves credit, and the luck he got.

Back to this old chestnut: what was the post shot XG? If it's high I'll lose all faith in that metric . Looking at the replays the keeper made himself the favourite in the situation imho.

Sofascore is saying 0.16. At least I think that's what it says
https://www.sofascore.com/football/m...tab:statistics

<EDIT>
Sorry, 0.16 is for the shot that was saved, the shot off the post at 81m had an xG of 0.02

[Stuttgart88]

Again last night Celtic, mainly via Maeda, got behind the full back and sent in dangerous low crosses that the striker failed to get on the end of. Kyogo the culprit. When he did connect he was carelessly offside. I was thinking at the time that if Idah had done everything Kyogo did or didn't do in the first half he'd be slaughtered. That's what having credit in the bank does.

[Stuttgart88]

Sofascore is saying 0.16. At least I think that's what it says
https://www.sofascore.com/football/m...tab:statistics

<EDIT>
Sorry, 0.16 is for the shot that was saved, the shot off the post at 81m had an xG of 0.02

So, does that confirm that the keeper had done his job well in advance of the shot, or does it say it was a rubbish shot?!

[seanfhear]

Again last night Celtic, mainly via Maeda, got behind the full back and sent in dangerous low crosses that the striker failed to get on the end of. Kyogo the culprit. When he did connect he was carelessly offside. I was thinking at the time that if Idah had done everything Kyogo did or didn't do in the first half he'd be slaughtered. That's what having credit in the bank does.

Kyogo was caught off-side poorly a few times ~ ~ Like a guy that knows, he doesn't have the pace against those defenders !

Fair dues to Idah for the goal ~ He kept himself on-side !

[Eirambler]

Well, Kyogo is on his way now, heading to Rennes. Would have to assume Adam will have some new competition for the centre forward spot by the end of the month.

Wondering if an Evan Ferguson loan might be a consideration.

[seanfhear]

Well, Kyogo is on his way now, heading to Rennes. Would have to assume Adam will have some new competition for the centre forward spot by the end of the month.

Wondering if an Evan Ferguson loan might be a consideration.

That would be a great opportunity for Evan Ferguson.

[pineapple stu]

So, does that confirm that the keeper had done his job well in advance of the shot, or does it say it was a rubbish shot?!

fbref says 0.31 xG and 0.42 PSxG.

So a decent chance (0.31 is reasonably high, although still far from a sure thing), Idah did ok out of it (PSxG higher than xG), and a good save from the keeper (from a 0.42 shot - that is, the keeper was still favourite). Sounds reasonable.

And as always, you don't have to believe those right down to the second decimal place.

[elatedscum]

fbref says 0.31 xG and 0.42 PSxG.

So a decent chance (0.31 is reasonably high, although still far from a sure thing), Idah did ok out of it (PSxG higher than xG), and a good save from the keeper (from a 0.42 shot - that is, the keeper was still favourite). Sounds reasonable.

And as always, you don't have to believe those right down to the second decimal place.

Stu, ow can sofascore and fbref have such wildly different numbers? Means at least one set of numbers is a total farce

[tetsujin1979]

So, does that confirm that the keeper had done his job well in advance of the shot, or does it say it was a rubbish shot?!

It's more a description of how hard it is to score from the situation Idah was in.
My understanding of xG is that it's the chance of a shot from that situation resulting in a goal, going from zero - no player in this situation has ever scored - to one - every single shot that's ever been taken in this situation has gone in.
Idah's first shot had an xG of 0.02 - so if 100 players were in the same situation, standing in that spot on the pitch, shooting with the same foot, with the opposition goalkeeper in the same position, it would result in two goals (2/100=0.02)

Stu, ow can sofascore and fbref have such wildly different numbers? Means at least one set of numbers is a total farce

Could be working off different data sets, or have a different method of calculating the value.
SkySports have similar numbers to sofascore for Idah's two shots - 0.025 and 0.161
https://www.skysports.com/football/c.../report/521717
(scroll down to xG race - Idah's shots are the last two dots on the graph)

[pineapple stu]

Stu, ow can sofascore and fbref have such wildly different numbers? Means at least one set of numbers is a total farce

Don't know tbh. I think there is a complication in instances like this where there's a rebound - that is, two shots in one, but the xG can't be the sum of the two shots because it wasn't possible for the two shots to go in. It could be one model is more refined than the other and is adjusting for that. It may be that 0.16 (per Sky Sports) is the xG of Idah's shot, but 0.31 (per fbref) is the xG of the chance as a whole, which includes the rebound. I can see other shots are more evenly scored - so Darian Males had shots on 62 and 63 which were scored 0.09/0.29 on fbref and 0.086/0.278 on Sky Sports, while the penalty is scored 0.79 by both, and Kuhn's early chance is 0.204 on Sky Sports v 0.22 on fbref.

But I won't pretend to be an expert on it of course.

[Stuttgart88]

There are a couple of books about it, though I won't be recommending either for my wife's book club. Here and here.

But regardless of the number of decimal places and the actual methodology, the numbers suggest "fluffed" would be a particularly unfair assessment of how Idah fared in the situation he was in?

[pineapple stu]

I read this one by Rory Smith recently. Same idea - and yeah, it was a little bit stodgy, a lot of people in third-world countries spending hours tagging a single game for reasonable pay (for the region; cheap by Western standards of course) - and a lot of secrecy around what exactly was being captured, which rather took away from the point of reading the book.

But there's a lot of money being spent in the area, there's data analysts being hired by top clubs for a reason, and there's data clubs (like Brighton, as mentioned on the Cashin thread) who seem to be doing quite well out of it. I don't think it can be dismissed as quackery.

And a football optics basis and FWIW, I agree with you it's a bit unfair to say Idah fluffed his chance. Though he clearly got a bit lucky with the rebound, but that's football.

[CraftyToePoke]

The stats are interesting, and it wasn't a tap in of course, but if that ball spins away into space off the keeper or if the defender manages to hack it away or even get himself out of the way, the whole mood music is different today about that chance lads.

But it didn't, and I am delighted for Idah, a CL winning contribution in a pressure game, late on in what would have been, again, very different coverage today had they not won.

So moving on, this can't be a blip or buying a bit of pressure space, he needs to score again soon and then again after that. He can't relax on this.

[pineapple stu]

100% on all of that.

[elatedscum]

there's a lot of money being spent in the area, there's data analysts being hired by top clubs for a reason, and there's data clubs (like Brighton, as mentioned on the Cashin thread) who seem to be doing quite well out of it. I don't think it can be dismissed as quackery.

My understanding is there’s a huge difference between the data clubs have and the data that is available to the public. And that the majority of premier league clubs pay for proprietary data systems or have built their own.

I feel to a certain extent they’ve got HD cameras capturing every movement and we’re here arguing with packs of crayons arguing over what it all means

[samhaydenjr]

I'm going to call it a "forced own goal" as his run had the defenders scrambling back and his shot was good enough at close quarters to force the keeper to kick it into the path of the retreating defender. And it turned a draw into a victory, to earn Celtic an extra €1,400,000, plus sealed a spot in the knockout round play-off, adding €1,000,000 to the Celtic Kitty. 60,000 at Parkhead for the home tie should add a few million more. And Celtic fans were beginning to wonder if Idah was worth the money.

[tetsujin1979]

Some reports are saying Celtic will clear £34m from the champions League

[pineapple stu]

Enough money to buy a replacement for Idah