Stephen Kenny

[Diggs246]

Fortunately I'm not kicking the ball in this case, so what I believe is utterly irrelevant.

And Ireland are routinely ranked top five in rugby - it says a lot about how little that game is played that we couldn't beat the world number one for decades. And in real competition (World Cup), we still can't beat them or get past the quarter-finals despite all the belief the players may have.

So pointing out that the suggestion that progress means "we should beat Greece home and away and take four points off France/Holland or if we fail to do that then we should qualify through the play-offs and perform well at the finals" is utter gibberish isn't throwing in the towel.

There's a shade in between black and white here.

Do you think winning a series in New Zealand is not a big deal? not a real thing per say?

Irish fans seem to be very much we have no hope and that's my point. of course is a terrible draw Im not blind

Its football... things happen Greece won the f**king thing

[John83]

Maybe you're talking at cross-purposes a bit. Pineapple means by expectations the outcome you'd be happy to bet on at evens. Us qualifying is not evens. Saying that is not to say we have no hope at all of qualfiying. It's just saying that you'd be stupid to bet on it at evens.

[pineapple stu]

I actually think we have no hope of qualifying from this group, and all the belief in the world here won't change what happens on the pitch. No more than all the belief in the world here hasn't turned Aaron Connolly/Aaron Drinan/Ryan Cassidy/Danny Mandroiu into 45-goal international strikers. But I will still go to the games hoping we will win for what that's worth.

But my post was directed at samhaydenjr when he said (across two posts) -

None of those - if we are to show genuine progression at this point, six points from Greece (and Gibraltar!) and four from twelve against Holland and France.

If we were making good progress I think it would actually be attainable. That's why I think that it should be a benchmark for judging Kenny's performance[...]Now if we fall short of this mark, I would still be OK with Kenny staying on if he manages to get us in via the playoffs and we perform well in the Finals

That's fanciful stuff.

[Diggs246]

I actually think we have no hope of qualifying from this group, and all the belief in the world here won't change what happens on the pitch. No more than all the belief in the world here hasn't turned Aaron Connolly/Aaron Drinan/Ryan Cassidy/Danny Mandroiu into 45-goal international strikers. But I will still go to the games hoping we will win for what that's worth.

But my post was directed at samhaydenjr when he said (across two posts) -


That's fanciful stuff.

"all the belief in the world here won't change what happens on the pitch"

You should look into becoming a motivational speaker. !!

[pineapple stu]

Or a writer of fantasy?

[Diggs246]

Or a writer of fantasy?

Id rather be gene roddenberty than Nietzsche !

[elatedscum]

I'd give us a 5% chance of qualifying directly. I'd give us a 70-30 chance of coming ahead of Greece and a 35-65 chance of taking 6 points off them.

We're probably about 50/50 to reach the playoffs and there's probably a 50-50 shot that there'll be one really strong team in our playoff - generally there's one good side who fails to deliver amongst the top 10 (if for example, Ukraine finished ahead of either Italy or England). So I'd give us maybe a 15% shot of actually getting through the playoffs if we get there (25% shot, less the chance we play against a really good side).

Which basically gives us a 5% shot of getting in via the groups and a 7.5% shot of getting in via the playoffs, so a 1 in 8 shot in total

[SkStu]

I'd give us a 5% chance of qualifying directly. I'd give us a 70-30 chance of coming ahead of Greece and a 35-65 chance of taking 6 points off them.

We're probably about 50/50 to reach the playoffs and there's probably a 50-50 shot that there'll be one really strong team in our playoff - generally there's one good side who fails to deliver amongst the top 10 (if for example, Ukraine finished ahead of either Italy or England). So I'd give us maybe a 15% shot of actually getting through the playoffs if we get there (25% shot, less the chance we play against a really good side).

Which basically gives us a 5% shot of getting in via the groups and a 7.5% shot of getting in via the playoffs, so a 1 in 8 shot in total

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

1. Played 28 Won 7 Drawn 7 Lost 14.
2. Played 28 Won 7 Drawn 11 Lost 10.

Ian Baraclough has been sacked as Northern Ireland manager with record number 1 above. He was introducing young players and attempting to build for the future.

Stephen Kenny has record number 2 above but with far superior players. It's incredible that not only he hasn't been sacked but even calls for him to be sacked have been few and far between.

[passinginterest]

Last 12 games they won 3 drew 3 lost 6 as far as I can see. We?ve won 6 drawn 3 lost 3 so on form it?s fairly clear there?s a big difference.

[CraftyToePoke]

Last 12 games they won 3 drew 3 lost 6 as far as I can see. We?ve won 6 drawn 3 lost 3 so on form it?s fairly clear there?s a big difference.

You can't be bringing rational credible context like that to any of the rabid swivel eyed loons of the SK out brigade passinginterest, it only upsets them more. It isn't good for their hearts.

[pineapple stu]

And six of those were in the lower division in the Nations League too, so weaker opposition.

That said, it is something I thought about as well when I saw he'd been sacked

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Last 12 games they won 3 drew 3 lost 6 as far as I can see. We?ve won 6 drawn 3 lost 3 so on form it?s fairly clear there?s a big difference.

What's your point here? Are we ruling out Kenny's first 16 games? There's no denying that Baraclough wasn't doing a good job, that's the point. He clearly had to be sacked, same as Kenny. Using the building for the future excuse doesn't wash.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

And six of those were in the lower division in the Nations League too, so weaker opposition.

That said, it is something I thought about as well when I saw he'd been sacked

Look at their squad and compare it to ours.

[passinginterest]

What's your point here? Are we ruling out Kenny's first 16 games? There's no denying that Baraclough wasn't doing a good job, that's the point. He clearly had to be sacked, same as Kenny. Using the building for the future excuse doesn't wash.

Fairly obvious, but I?ll spell it out a bit. One made a fairly decent start and has gone backwards.

The other had a horrible start, had overseen a massive transition and things are at least stabilising and could be considered to have improved somewhat significantly.

The stat the other day that for the first time in premier league history we don?t have a single player under 30 with more than 50 premier league appearances spells out the challenge Kenny has faced. It?s been pointed out numerous times but there?s a massive gap in the squad from players in their 30?s to players in their early 20?s. The fact that Collins is the next player likely to make 50 days it all.

And that?s not just a massive gap in age it?s a massive gap in experience. Previous managers gave little or no caps to any emerging players. Yes the options were poor, but potential backups never got a chance to even build up mid single figures levels of caps. There was zero in terms of forward planning.

[Diggs246]

Fairly obvious, but I?ll spell it out a bit. One made a fairly decent start and has gone backwards.

The other had a horrible start, had overseen a massive transition and things are at least stabilising and could be considered to have improved somewhat significantly.

The stat the other day that for the first time in premier league history we don?t have a single player under 30 with more than 50 premier league appearances spells out the challenge Kenny has faced. It?s been pointed out numerous times but there?s a massive gap in the squad from players in their 30?s to players in their early 20?s. The fact that Collins is the next player likely to make 50 days it all.

And that?s not just a massive gap in age it?s a massive gap in experience. Previous managers gave little or no caps to any emerging players. Yes the options were poor, but potential backups never got a chance to even build up mid single figures levels of caps. There was zero in terms of forward planning.

"had overseen a massive transition and things are at least stabilising and could be considered to have improved somewhat significantly"

We came 2nd last in a poor Nations league group a few weeks ago. When he said we would win it

[pineapple stu]

Look at their squad and compare it to ours.

Indeed. And the only teams he beat in 28 games were Malta, Estonia and Luxembourg in friendlies, and Lithuania (twice) and Kosovo in competitive games. There's been good draws in there too of course - the Italy draw stands out - but given he nearly took them down to League D, I guess that was a determinant. Despite your protestations, form and direction is absolutely something to consider. Their Elo has fallen by a lot more than Ireland in the same time for example (1678 -> 1540 as compared to 1729 -> 1683)

Lots of nuances, but you're bringing it down to just numerical record. (And I've said here before that if there's a break clause in Kenny's contract after the Nations League and I were in the FAI, that I'd be looking to see if there was a replacement available, so I'm not fully disagreeing with you either)

[passinginterest]

"had overseen a massive transition and things are at least stabilising and could be considered to have improved somewhat significantly"

We came 2nd last in a poor Nations league group a few weeks ago. When he said we would win it

Very true. And I don’t think things are great by any means. I don’t think there could be much complaint if Kenny was replaced. But I don’t think it will happen.

I’m simply pointing to the differences between him and his recently sacked NI equivalent.

And if we want to really try draw out some positives, if only to wind up some people a bit more, we’ve just won our first two games EVER in the nations league. Including a convincing win against higher ranked opponents for the first time in a very long time.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Fairly obvious, but I?ll spell it out a bit. One made a fairly decent start and has gone backwards.

The other had a horrible start, had overseen a massive transition and things are at least stabilising and could be considered to have improved somewhat significantly.

The stat the other day that for the first time in premier league history we don?t have a single player under 30 with more than 50 premier league appearances spells out the challenge Kenny has faced. It?s been pointed out numerous times but there?s a massive gap in the squad from players in their 30?s to players in their early 20?s. The fact that Collins is the next player likely to make 50 days it all.

And that?s not just a massive gap in age it?s a massive gap in experience. Previous managers gave little or no caps to any emerging players. Yes the options were poor, but potential backups never got a chance to even build up mid single figures levels of caps. There was zero in terms of forward planning.

There was no massive transition. That myth has been busted. Here are Kenny's first 10 team selections:

v bulgaria:
Darren Randolph Enda Stevens Shane Duffy John Egan Matt Doherty James McCarthy Adam Idah Jeff Hendrick Conor Hourihane Callum O'Dowda Aaron Connolly
v Finland
Darren Randolph; Enda Stevens, Shane Duffy John Egan, Matt Doherty; Robbie Brady, Harry Arter, Jayson Molumby; Callum O'Dowda Aaron Connolly Adam Idah
v Slovakia
Darren Randolph; Matt Doherty, Shane Duffy, John Egan, Enda Stevens; Jeff Hendrick, James McCarthy, Conor Hourihane; Callum Robinson, David McGoldrick, James McClean.
v Wales
Darren Randolph; Matt Doherty, Kevin Long Shane Duffy Enda Stevens; Conor Hourihane, Jeff Hendrick, Jayson Molumby Shane Long Robbie Brady James McClean
v Finland
Randolph; Doherty, Duffy (c), O'Shea, Stevens; Molumby, Hourihane, Horgan, Hendrick, Connolly; Maguire.
v England
Darren Randolph; Cyrus Christie, Matt Doherty, Shane Duffy, John Egan; Conor Hourihane, Jeff Hendrick, Alan Browne; Daryl Horgan, Callum O'Dowda, Adam Idah
v Wales
Randolph, Doherty, Duffy, O'Shea, Molumby, Hendrick, Horgan, Brady, McClean, Long, Idah
v Bulgaria
Darren Randolph; Ryan Manning, Kevin Long, Shane Duffy (capt), Dara O'Shea; Conor Hourihane, Jason Knight, Robbie Brady; Ronan Curtis, Daryl Horgan, James Collins.
v Serbia
Mark Travers; Seamus Coleman, Matt Doherty, Enda Stevens, Ciaran Clark, Dara O'Shea; Alan Browne, Jayson Molumby, Josh Cullen; Callum Robinson, Aaron Connolly.
v Luxembourg
Gavin Bazunu; Seamus Coleman, Dara O'Shea, Ciaran Clark; Matt Doherty, Enda Stevens, Josh Cullen, Jason Knight, Alan Browne; Callum Robinson, James Collins.

It was practically the same squad McCarthy had that nearly qualified us for the Euros. Kenny had them and a huge list of young talent to add to them. It also has to be pointed out again that results only improved slightly when Anthony Barry came on board to change the formation, coach the players the new system, style of play etc.

Also, you seem to be forgetting that McCarthy intruduced young players. Parrott and Connolly, since then Kenny had the advantage of these breakthroughs:

Bazunu: Moved to Rochdale and Portsmouth on loan and gained a premier league move to Southampton.
Kelleher: Started to get some game time with Liverpool although very limited.
Travers: Made a breakthrough at Bournemouth to become a regular.
Dara O'Shea: Became a premier league regular with West Brom and still a regular in the championship despite major injury.
Omobamidele: Made the breakthrough at Norwich in the premier league and now a championship regular despite injury.
Collins: Became a regular with Stoke which got him a premier league move with Burnley and then Wolves.
Cullen: Got a move to Anderlecht which helped his development hugely.
Knight: Became captain and championship regular with Derby.
Molumby: Got loan moves to become a regular at championship level and now signed by West Brom.
Idah: Made a breakthrough at Norwich to play a number of premier league games.
Obefami: Became a championship regular and started banging in the goals.

If any manager had been in charge these players would have been used. And McCarthy might have given emerging players more chances if they weren't being held back for u21 duty under...... Stephen Kenny.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Indeed. And the only teams he beat in 28 games were Malta, Estonia and Luxembourg in friendlies, and Lithuania (twice) and Kosovo in competitive games. There's been good draws in there too of course - the Italy draw stands out - but given he nearly took them down to League D, I guess that was a determinant. Despite your protestations, form and direction is absolutely something to consider. Their Elo has fallen by a lot more than Ireland in the same time for example (1678 -> 1540 as compared to 1729 -> 1683)

Lots of nuances, but you're bringing it down to just numerical record. (And I've said here before that if there's a break clause in Kenny's contract after the Nations League and I were in the FAI, that I'd be looking to see if there was a replacement available, so I'm not fully disagreeing with you either)

And Kenny has only beaten Azerbaijan, Qatar, Andorra, Scotland, Luxembourg, Lithuania and Armenia. All you're proving in that post is that both have done a rubbish job over a very similar time period. Which was my point so I think we're in agreement.