Stephen Kenny

**SkStu** · 27/02/2023, 4:42 PM

The Pineapple Stu scenario is the middle ground option between both the scenarios in ES post. If he is trending to less than that 9 point middle ground, he doesn't get the lucky outcome that is possible in ES second option. If he is trending to it (or even slightly better than), what is the outcome? It is truly hard to say but I think it is likely that interpretation of performances in the big games are the kicker in what decision is made. I'm struggling to see a scenario along those lines where he is given more time but it is not impossible he is staying on with some mid-ground results. That all assumes he makes it past the first round of games relatively unscathed...

**paul_oshea** · 27/02/2023, 4:48 PM

Not many managers have had the opportunity of 2/3 failed campaigns and then still leading into the next one. I think he'd be very lucky to have that opportunity. But I really dont trust the current FAI board. Money people not football people.

**Razors left peg** · 27/02/2023, 4:59 PM

IF we finish 3rd, is there chance of playoffs based on Nations League? Kinda like what happened last time, where we were crap in group and nations league but still managed to get playoff against Slovakia?

**elatedscum** · 27/02/2023, 5:09 PM

Originally Posted by BOOMSHAKALAKA

Could we have got a better draw if results were better over the last two years? We mightn't even get a playoff, isn't that down to recent results also?

Yes and no... going back to NI's group - they're 5th seeds and they got that ridiculous group. The 4th seeds in that group Kazakstan are guaranteed a playoff, probably against Turkey, Greece and Georgia (unless any were to qualify directly, in which case Luxembourg would be the next team up)

So had we done worse, say got relegated instead of Bulgaria, and won the group with Georgia, Gibraltar and Macedonia, we'd possibly be in a better position re the playoffs and, as luck would have it, in the groups too. So yeah, if we'd done better or worse, we'd probably have gotten a better draw.

Originally Posted by Razors left peg

IF we finish 3rd, is there chance of playoffs based on Nations League? Kinda like what happened last time, where we were crap in group and nations league but still managed to get playoff against Slovakia?

Yep

**Razors left peg** · 27/02/2023, 5:11 PM

Originally Posted by elatedscum

Yes and no... going back to NI's group - they're 5th seeds and they got that ridiculous group. The 4th seeds in that group Kazakstan are guaranteed a playoff, probably against Turkey, Greece and Georgia (unless any were to qualify directly, in which case Luxembourg would be the next team up)

So had we done worse, say got relegated instead of Bulgaria, and won the group with Georgia, Gibraltar and Macedonia, we'd possibly be in a better position re the playoffs and, as luck would have it, in the groups too. So yeah, if we'd done better or worse, we'd probably have gotten a better draw.

Yep

So if we are crap but qualify based on NL playoff would that be enough for him to keep his job?

**paul_oshea** · 27/02/2023, 5:18 PM

Hed still have to win 2(competitive) games in a row. Something he hasnt done so if he achieved that I think he would assuming we dont end up with only 2 wins in the other group.

Put another way if we qualified for the Nations league and didnt lose to Greece and 1 result each of France and Holland I'm sure hed be kept on. Id be happy with that too.

**elatedscum** · 27/02/2023, 5:28 PM

Originally Posted by Razors left peg

So if we are crap but qualify based on NL playoff would that be enough for him to keep his job?

i'd say if we are really crap, he'll probably lose his job during or at the end of the group (like only picking up the 6 points against Gibraltar). Playoffs are in March, so wouldn't be ideal for a new manager's first games to them - but if we come third, i'd be pretty confident he'd at least keep the job until March. Either way, if he qualifies us, he obviously stays for the euros at the very least.

**Razors left peg** · 27/02/2023, 6:05 PM

To be honest Im just playing Devils advocate a bit. Finishing 3rd is a minimum for him, and we have to play well in most game. If that gets us a playoff then he will get the chance to keep his job by winning that playoff.

**liamoo11** · 27/02/2023, 6:44 PM

Originally Posted by Razors left peg

To be honest Im just playing Devils advocate a bit. Finishing 3rd is a minimum for him, and we have to play well in most game. If that gets us a playoff then he will get the chance to keep his job by winning that playoff.

Look if he qualifies us through the playoffs he definitely keeps his job and takes us through the world Cup qualifiers . If he qualifies us through the group he gets a 4 year contract through to end of next euros campaign

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 27/02/2023, 6:50 PM

Originally Posted by elatedscum

Yes and no... going back to NI's group - they're 5th seeds and they got that ridiculous group. The 4th seeds in that group Kazakstan are guaranteed a playoff, probably against Turkey, Greece and Georgia (unless any were to qualify directly, in which case Luxembourg would be the next team up)

So had we done worse, say got relegated instead of Bulgaria, and won the group with Georgia, Gibraltar and Macedonia, we'd possibly be in a better position re the playoffs and, as luck would have it, in the groups too. So yeah, if we'd done better or worse, we'd probably have gotten a better draw.

Yep

But you don't go out to do worse, we did bad enough as it was. What if we topped the group with Ukraine and Scotland? Could we have been second seeds for the Euro draw?

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 27/02/2023, 6:51 PM

Originally Posted by Razors left peg

IF we finish 3rd, is there chance of playoffs based on Nations League? Kinda like what happened last time, where we were crap in group and nations league but still managed to get playoff against Slovakia?

There's a chance we could get a playoff but the chances aren't great because we have dropped down the rankings.

**samhaydenjr** · 28/02/2023, 2:51 AM

There seems to be some misunderstanding about whether our performance in the main qualifiers will impact our ability to make it to the playoffs. I just want to clear that up - it almost certainly won't (more on that later) as the play-off participants will be chosen based on the Nations League rankings of the teams left after the main qualifying tournament. The results of the other groups will have more of an effect in determining our fate

We are ranked 26th, Germany qualify as hosts and Estonia, as highest ranked League D team, will be moved into the playoff path of any League that has fewer than four teams left (most likely League A). What this means is that if 20, 19, or 18 of the qualifiers from the main tournament are ranked above us in the Nations League, then we secure a play-off spot. However, if three of the qualifiers are ranked below us (say Turkey, Sweden and Romania), then we are out.

The ideal scenario would see fifteen of the qualifiers come from League A (plus Germany) and five from the League B teams ranked above us. In this case, the other four League B teams above us would form the League B path and we would be moved into the League A path with Estonia, Albania and Montenegro. Alternative scenarios would include us remaining in the League B path with three higher-ranked League B teams or being forced to face two League A teams and Estonia.

Now I did say that our performances in the main qualifying group would almost certainly have no impact. But there is a potential scenario which could have a very interesting effect. If we don't qualify from the group and Greece do, then they become one of the three lower-ranked qualifiers who could block our way to the play-offs. This could create a rather perverse incentive for us. Imagine that Greece shock the Netherlands (who have been below par all tournament) in October to pull three points clear of them, with a final game at home to France, who have already qualified. The Netherlands might need to win both of their final games to prevent Greece from qualifying in second place. Their second-last game is against... guess who? It would actually help us to lose that game, possibly by a lot. So... do we take the chance to give a bunch of debuts to U17 players? Do we stick Obafemi in goal? Or will we be naturally bad enough to achieve this important defeat?

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 28/02/2023, 7:24 AM

Good stuff Sam, well explained and could be an interesting twist. You know your stuff so can you tell me if we had topped the Nation's League group with Ukraine and Scotland, could we have been second seeds for the Euro 2024 draw? I read some newspaper articles from around that time stating we could but I haven't seen it confirmed.

**pineapple stu** · 28/02/2023, 7:32 AM

Well you can't top a group with two other teams.

But Scotland are second seeds so yep, had we won our group outright we'd have been second seeds.

**Eirambler** · 28/02/2023, 8:00 AM

Yes, the four Group B winners and the best ranked second placed team were all second seeds in the draw. We missed a massive opportunity there.

Our current problems were basically created in one international window a year ago. Kenny made a complete hames of the Armenia away/Ukraine (second team) at home fixtures. It should have been 6 points, it ended up being zero. His team setup in those games was awful and put us in the mess we're in now in terms of qualification for the Euros. He's paying the price for his errors in this campaign. Unfortunately, so are the rest of us.

**BOOMSHAKALAKA** · 28/02/2023, 8:16 AM

Originally Posted by Eirambler

Yes, the four Group B winners and the best ranked second placed team were all second seeds in the draw. We missed a massive opportunity there.

Our current problems were basically created in one international window a year ago. Kenny made a complete hames of the Armenia away/Ukraine (second team) at home fixtures. It should have been 6 points, it ended up being zero. His team setup in those games was awful and put us in the mess we're in now in terms of qualification for the Euros. He's paying the price for his errors in this campaign. Unfortunately, so are the rest of us.

So the position we're in was self inflicted then. No real point talking about an unlucky draw when our awful performances have put us in this position. We now have to come ahead of either France or Holland or hope other teams do us a favour to even have a play off to get to the Euros. Why is this manager still in a job again?

**elatedscum** · 28/02/2023, 11:26 AM

It is worth noting that Ukraine have Mudryk who Chelsea just bought for �95m, Zabarnyi who Bournemouth just bought for �24m as a 20 year old, Zinchenko who cost Arsenal �30m and Mykolenko who was a steal for Everton at �17m. They also have Lunin, Yarmalenko, Stepanenko, Shaparenko - all quality. There�s not many Irish players that would get into their team and there�s not a god given right to finish above them.

**Eirambler** · 28/02/2023, 11:52 AM

Yes, but when we played them at home they were in the early stages of the war, they had just come off a World Cup playoff loss to Scotland and picked a far from full strength team for the Dublin game. They were basically saying to us that night - on you go lads, this game isn't a priority for us, we'll give you it. And we lost to them anyway.

**elatedscum** · 28/02/2023, 12:26 PM

it still had Mudryk, Mykolenko, Sharapenko and Lunin - it was a weird night.

I genuinely think the FAI giving 2000 tickets to the ukraine fans, plus the other however many thousand ukraine fans were in the stadium really changed things (i know my section was about 50/50 irish ukraine - and that wasn't the block where they gave 2000 tickets). It genuinely felt like an away game. There was so much positivity towards Ukraine - the ukraine fans were louder, screaming and chanting the whole way through and we were just dead - there was absolutely no atmosphere from us.

**Diggs246** · 28/02/2023, 12:30 PM

Originally Posted by elatedscum

it still had Mudryk, Mykolenko, Sharapenko and Lunin - it was a weird night.

I genuinely think the FAI giving 2000 tickets to the ukraine fans, plus the other however many thousand ukraine fans were in the stadium really changed things (i know my section was about 50/50 irish ukraine - and that wasn't the block where they gave 2000 tickets). It genuinely felt like an away game. There was so much positivity towards Ukraine - the ukraine fans were louder, screaming and chanting the whole way through and we were just dead - there was absolutely no atmosphere from us.

Would it not be fair to say the atmosphere from us was dire, because our team was dire.

Unfortunately under Stephen poor performances isn't weird