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Thread: Possible Celtic/Shamrock Rovers deal.

  1. #121
    First Team seand's Avatar
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    Great news for Rovers, bad news for the rest of the league. Rovers and Desmond have two ways to make money, the academy farm which is clearly working well already and has potential to do even better, and European money with Rovers pretty much guaranteed qualification for the foreseeable future unless something goes terribly wrong. Unlike the Drogs and Bohs bubbles there's no potential land grab. From what I can see the only way Desmond can make money (which is obviously the only reason for investment) is by Rovers making money

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    The Cheeto God Real ale Madrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ezeikial View Post
    That resistance to any type of outside investment will change too if the current disparity between Cork and the top two is maintained or grows even wider.
    What evidence do you have that Cork City are resistant to outside investment? If the right offer came along there isn't a club in the country that wouldn't listen. Unfortunately they are not exactly banging down our door and weren't while we were winning trophies either.

    Listen - I'm genuinely happy if the league is subject to outside investment. I'm all for it. But the fact remains that there is no money to be made in LOI football and investors require returns so proceed with caution. Rovers are in a good spot here with this I think. The hybrid model looks a good fit for progression. But if Rovers had a bad season - crowds would disappear and investors lose patience quickly, so long as a strong healthy supporters group remain hand in hand to pick up any pieces then risk is minimised.
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    First Team seand's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid View Post
    What evidence do you have that Cork City are resistant to outside investment? If the right offer came along there isn't a club in the country that wouldn't listen. Unfortunately they are not exactly banging down our door and weren't while we were winning trophies either.

    Listen - I'm genuinely happy if the league is subject to outside investment. I'm all for it. But the fact remains that there is no money to be made in LOI football and investors require returns so proceed with caution. Rovers are in a good spot here with this I think. The hybrid model looks a good fit for progression. But if Rovers had a bad season - crowds would disappear and investors lose patience quickly, so long as a strong healthy supporters group remain hand in hand to pick up any pieces then risk is minimised.
    Genuine question though... what happens if Rovers do have 2 or 3 bad seasons and Desmond loses interest? He sells his shares for less than he bought? It's not like he has the option of selling the ground or asset-stripping. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see a whole lot of downside here for Rovers. He's not in a position to siphon off huge chunks of profit/income (unlike, I dunno, Peak6 at Dundalk)

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    I'm not sure what to think, if I'm 100% honest.
    The money involved is not going to change things wholesale at Rovers, in my view, but it does give a degree of security for the immediate future of the club.
    I also don't think this is necessarily bad news for the rest of LOI as investment into the league can have a knock on effect (provided it's not just invested in players wages!!). Desmond clearly didn't fancy investing in cork and dundalk have peak6 so who else was credible?
    Pat's have kelliher and both bohs and shels have the ongoing stadium issue so not the best time at the moment for them I guess.
    The Rovers board are fairly hard nosed at this stage and won't accede power of the club to any flash Harry who turns up. The memory of 20+ years of nomadic existence has not been forgotten by any means.
    And now that O'Donnell is there you'd expect pat's to get dundalk cast offs instead of Rovers!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid View Post
    What evidence do you have that Cork City are resistant to outside investment? If the right offer came along there isn't a club in the country that wouldn't listen. Unfortunately they are not exactly banging down our door and weren't while we were winning trophies either.

    Listen - I'm genuinely happy if the league is subject to outside investment. I'm all for it. But the fact remains that there is no money to be made in LOI football and investors require returns so proceed with caution. Rovers are in a good spot here with this I think. The hybrid model looks a good fit for progression. But if Rovers had a bad season - crowds would disappear and investors lose patience quickly, so long as a strong healthy supporters group remain hand in hand to pick up any pieces then risk is minimised.
    I think there is definitely money to be made in the LOI - at one or possibly two clubs.

    The route to doing it is to qualify for Europe annually and then aim to get to the money tree that is European group stages on a semi-regular basis.

    The first task in that - qualifying for Europe regularly - does not take a huge sum in the LOI. The tough bit is getting through the rounds to group football - but the returns form doing so would appear to make it worthwhile to try.

    So I can absolutely see how money can be made at 1 or 2 clubs in the LOI. Three clubs maybe at an absolute push - but they'd all need to be qualifying for Europe almost every year.

    Same goes for every other league in Europe with very little money in it e.g. Wales, NI, Iceland, Luxembourg, Albania.

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    Seasoned Pro Ezeikial's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid View Post
    What evidence do you have that Cork City are resistant to outside investment? If the right offer came along there isn't a club in the country that wouldn't listen. Unfortunately they are not exactly banging down our door and weren't while we were winning trophies either.
    None as regards Cork City & FORAS, but my comment related to Cork folk being especially cautious as a result of the Arkaga experience and how supporters resistance may soften further as the reality of the current disparity becomes more obvious.



    Quote Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid View Post

    Listen - I'm genuinely happy if the league is subject to outside investment. I'm all for it. But the fact remains that there is no money to be made in LOI football and investors require returns so proceed with caution. Rovers are in a good spot here with this I think. The hybrid model looks a good fit for progression. But if Rovers had a bad season - crowds would disappear and investors lose patience quickly, so long as a strong healthy supporters group remain hand in hand to pick up any pieces then risk is minimised.
    Of course investors want a Return On Investment, that's what sets them apart from benefactors.

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    The Cheeto God Real ale Madrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seand View Post
    Genuine question though... what happens if Rovers do have 2 or 3 bad seasons and Desmond loses interest? He sells his shares for less than he bought? It's not like he has the option of selling the ground or asset-stripping. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see a whole lot of downside here for Rovers. He's not in a position to siphon off huge chunks of profit/income (unlike, I dunno, Peak6 at Dundalk)
    So long as Rovers (or any club) make long term commitments to players and staff that are sustainable post investment then there is no risk. But if clubs start giving long term contracts etc and investors cannot or will not follow though on commitments then the problems start. Hand in hand with a robust supporters group then the risk is mitigated. But if Peak 6 for example pull the plug in the morning on Dundalk, do Dundalk have the abilty to make good on commitments made to contracts and suppliers etc. They probably do - but that is just an example. A downturn in fortunes can turn a great business model into something unsustainable pretty quickly.
    If a dog weighs under 50 lbs it's a cat, and cats are useless.

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    Quote Originally Posted by placid casual View Post
    I'm not sure what to think, if I'm 100% honest.
    The money involved is not going to change things wholesale at Rovers, in my view, but it does give a degree of security for the immediate future of the club.
    I also don't think this is necessarily bad news for the rest of LOI as investment into the league can have a knock on effect (provided it's not just invested in players wages!!). Desmond clearly didn't fancy investing in cork and dundalk have peak6 so who else was credible?
    Pat's have kelliher and both bohs and shels have the ongoing stadium issue so not the best time at the moment for them I guess.
    The Rovers board are fairly hard nosed at this stage and won't accede power of the club to any flash Harry who turns up. The memory of 20+ years of nomadic existence has not been forgotten by any means.
    And now that O'Donnell is there you'd expect pat's to get dundalk cast offs instead of Rovers!
    That`s a fair enough summary. Pats are suckers for Rovers rejects though.!

    Shels probably have potential for an "investor", I also think that Drogs have huge potential for a potential investor.

    We were told at an info meeting last year that approaches by unnamed suitors had been made to invest in Bohs, I doubt that it was a serious proposal tbh, and wouldnt have got a hearing from the membership. Anyway, potential European qualification without investor baggage has worked out for this season anyway

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    I have come to believe that the best ownership model in LOI circles is one that allows two main things - 1) attract & develop the best (or best of the rest) youth players and 2) give them a pathway to professional experience in return for a medium term contract. Competitive wages to attract senior players is a possible third but far less important in my opinion.

    Rovers are doing it their way through a hybrid model already (Wilson was the first step, now DD) and we will ultimately see what conditions the DD investment carries and the consequences of those in relation to the above 2 elements. It is a quick path that does open the club up to some (undetermined level of) risk. I see the risk being around the youth side and whether Rovers will become just another Irish club that trafficks in young Irish players and not get what they could/should in terms of compensation. It is the potential for a different type of asset stripping.

    For contrast, Bohs are, it seems, fully committed to a 100% member owned model and have made progress on both the above elements year over year. If we are fortunate enough to qualify for europe this season and reinvest the prize money wisely in 1) and 2) above (heavily in #2 would be my preference), we will further stabilize and become more competitive. It is a slower path and the risk it carries is the dependency on some level of success in order to grow.

    Ultimately, both models are workable and it is up to Rovers to decide who/what they want to be when they grow up. Hopefully both models will work for both clubs, except Rovers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkStu View Post
    I have come to believe that the best ownership model in LOI circles is one that allows two main things - 1) attract & develop the best (or best of the rest) youth players and 2) give them a pathway to professional experience in return for a medium term contract. Competitive wages to attract senior players is a possible third but far less important in my opinion.
    This is basically the model that Derry follow. The conveyor belt of talent continually coming through at the club is genuinely impressive.

    Where it falls down a bit is the length of contract though. Young players are always in a hurry to get on. Anything beyond a year feels like a lifetime at that age. And it's very difficult for clubs to stand in their way over transfer fees even if they have a longer contract.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EatYerGreens View Post
    This is basically the model that Derry follow. The conveyor belt of talent continually coming through at the club is genuinely impressive.

    Where it falls down a bit is the length of contract though. Young players are always in a hurry to get on. Anything beyond a year feels like a lifetime at that age. And it's very difficult for clubs to stand in their way over transfer fees even if they have a longer contract.
    This is where the big conundrum comes. At what age should a player be tied to a medium term contract and what is the optimum length of contract? Obviously the terms have to be attractive enough for the player to sign and he must believe that he has prospects to improve his talents and profile.

    There are very few 18/19 year olds who are ready for regular LOI first team football and with no competitive football after u-19's their progress can easily stagnate. Even if an 18 year old was attracted by decent money to sign a 3 year contract, the rate of attrition for promising 18 year olds is fairly high.

    It really is no coincidence that the most successful LOI of recent times has had almost no players progressing from underage. On the other hand the biggest conveyor belt for young talent have consistently struggled to achieve or maintain a presence in the premier division.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ezeikial View Post
    This is where the big conundrum comes. At what age should a player be tied to a medium term contract and what is the optimum length of contract? Obviously the terms have to be attractive enough for the player to sign and he must believe that he has prospects to improve his talents and profile.

    There are very few 18/19 year olds who are ready for regular LOI first team football and with no competitive football after u-19's their progress can easily stagnate. Even if an 18 year old was attracted by decent money to sign a 3 year contract, the rate of attrition for promising 18 year olds is fairly high.

    It really is no coincidence that the most successful LOI of recent times has had almost no players progressing from underage. On the other hand the biggest conveyor belt for young talent have consistently struggled to achieve or maintain a presence in the premier division.
    Shamrock Rover beware!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by EatYerGreens View Post
    This is basically the model that Derry follow. The conveyor belt of talent continually coming through at the club is genuinely impressive.

    Where it falls down a bit is the length of contract though. Young players are always in a hurry to get on. Anything beyond a year feels like a lifetime at that age. And it's very difficult for clubs to stand in their way over transfer fees even if they have a longer contract.
    Most players in LOI want more than one year contract. If that's the experience at Derry (players only wanting one year) you are well nigh unique. Unless the players is amateur or playing for buttons multi year contracts are sought after.

    All clubs develop young players (except elite one or two that buy in the finished article).

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    You may be right about most players, especially those who have returned from abroad or their age profile doesnt fit a move at this stage but even at Dundalk where contracts are likely to be competative not all have signed multiple year contracts. I think Benson tends toward 1 year extensions as an example but open to correction. Younger players again are dazzled by even the most tenuous interest from England. It is quite possible that Michael Duffy signed a 3 year contract as he had players around him that could talk about the realities of moving to England - McEleney, Hoban and O'Donnell for starters. Then cite the example of Towell as a shining prospect playing in L2 now. Duffy is still young enough to move but will have that bit more under his belt if he does. Interesting about the rumours of Burnley interest in Duffy and Gannon even though Gannon is 28 which would trump the trend. Though more recent Burnley rumours of interest in a former Dundalk player a couple of years ago certainly never came to anything and the player nearly ended up clubless. This is the first season that Dundalk have in a serious way brought through players from U19s given them FT contracts and given them game time although that has been more since the league was bagged. Lot of potential and probably need to go out on loan for more game time next season especially with a fully healthy squad and any players coming in.

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    Seasoned Pro Ezeikial's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by marinobohs View Post
    Most players in LOI want more than one year contract. If that's the experience at Derry (players only wanting one year) you are well nigh unique. Unless the players is amateur or playing for buttons multi year contracts are sought after.

    All clubs develop young players (except elite one or two that buy in the finished article).
    At what point does a contract become financially attractive and move from the "buttons" category.

    Is it €20,000?

    If a club sign only 3 promising 19 year olds each year on 3 year deals they will very quickly have salary commitments of €180k per year and have a coterie of young players many of whom will not have regular competitive football. It is probably lower cost to sign the pick of these players at 21/22 when they are out of contract and more physically developed.
    Last edited by Ezeikial; 10/10/2019 at 6:52 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nesta99 View Post
    You may be right about most players, especially those who have returned from abroad or their age profile doesnt fit a move at this stage but even at Dundalk where contracts are likely to be competative not all have signed multiple year contracts. I think Benson tends toward 1 year extensions as an example but open to correction. Younger players again are dazzled by even the most tenuous interest from England. It is quite possible that Michael Duffy signed a 3 year contract as he had players around him that could talk about the realities of moving to England - McEleney, Hoban and O'Donnell for starters. Then cite the example of Towell as a shining prospect playing in L2 now. Duffy is still young enough to move but will have that bit more under his belt if he does. Interesting about the rumours of Burnley interest in Duffy and Gannon even though Gannon is 28 which would trump the trend. Though more recent Burnley rumours of interest in a former Dundalk player a couple of years ago certainly never came to anything and the player nearly ended up clubless. This is the first season that Dundalk have in a serious way brought through players from U19s given them FT contracts and given them game time although that has been more since the league was bagged. Lot of potential and probably need to go out on loan for more game time next season especially with a fully healthy squad and any players coming in.


    Lido Lotefa was the only one who got a first pro contract at Dundalk for 2019, when he signed in the last close season at 18 years old. Both he and Mark Hanratty made their league debuts in recent weeks, after the league was secured - hardly a strong commitment to developing u19's

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    Capped Player SkStu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ezeikial View Post
    At what point does a contract become financially attractive and move from the "buttons" category.

    Is it €20,000?

    If a club sign only 3 promising 19 year olds each year on 3 year deals they will very quickly have salary commitments of €180k per year and have a coterie of young players many of whom will not have regular competitive football. It is probably lower cost to sign the pick of these players at 21/22 when they are out of contract and more physically developed.
    You wont get them all right but your youth systems should be identifying these candidates from early on and there should be a pathway to them being tested in first team action as early as possible. Even still you wont get it 100% right. Bohs were forced by circumstance into something very similar and tbh it makes me cringe to think that these kids can be snapped up tomorrow for buttons because we can't/couldn't offer them a decent 2 or 3 year deal. That is slowly changing (e.g. Mandroiu got eventually signed to a 2 year deal) at Bohs but we havent fully integrated it with our youth systems yet.

    But, even if you dont get it 100% right, an approach to awarding contracts to any footballers always carries a decent chunk of risk so clubs need to do as much as possible in the early years (16-19) through your youth system to pick out (and test) those that they think will make a career as a professional and/or carry potential sell-on value.

    For a club like Bohs without investors, it really is the only model worth pursuing. I get that it would be different for a Dundalk - but we are not competing in the same market.

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