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Thread: Euro 2020 qualifying

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    Switzerland are a good bit ahead of the rest in the group but in the end its just two games between us and them, us getting 3 or even 4 points off them wouldnt be the biggest shock ever, they arent like a Germany (not the current side though!) who you would expect to win this group 8-0-0 Switzerland will definitely come top 2 in the group and almost certainly finish top but unless the rest of the teams collapse I think this group will go similarly to our WC group for 2018, Ireland (if we improv that is) and Denmark are alot better than anything Switzerland played in their WC group bar Portugal so I would expect them to win 4 from 4 from the minnows and then get 2 wins out of 4 or so from us and Denmark.

    I think the schedule is amazing, not just because of our start to the campaign but Denmark travel to Switzerland first up and if they lose their they could find themselves under alot of pressure coming into the Ireland match and going into that we will be a complete unknown quantity and we could catch them on the hop. Win that and the Danes have an absolute mountain to climb and we have some wiggle room which Mick would love to have. Next we have Gibralter but after that we get Switzerland at home and if we managed to win that game we would have one foot in the finals almost.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuttgart88 View Post
    I think the Swiss are a fair bit ahead of us in quite a few ways, not least their ability to navigate qualifying pretty effectively down the years, but yes, the Sweden and NI games suggest that there may be something to be gained from them.
    Over 8 games yes but in a one off match or home and away matches Ireland and Denmark would definetly fancy their chances.

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    Fixture list added to the Group D wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_E...ifying_Group_D

    We could easily be top of the group in June after playing Gibraltar twice and Georgia, but it's a really tough end to the group. The "easiest" fixture in the last four games is away to Georgia. We'll be facing the top seeds twice. Denmark play Gibraltar at home three days before facing us, with the Swiss going to Faro* the same night we finish against Denmark at home. Even the free date in September comes after the qualifier against Switzerland, if it was the other way around we could see some experimentation ahead of the qualifier.

    * assuming Gibraltar continue to play their qualifiers in Faro
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    Yep, we aren't playing on on match days 6 and 9, both next season - Sept (a month before Georgia away) and November (3 days before Denmark at home). It'd have been handy to have a couple of friendlies earlier in the sequence than that, but the September friendly will be useful to prepare for Georgia away.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuttgart88 View Post
    I think the Swiss are a fair bit ahead of us in quite a few ways, not least their ability to navigate qualifying pretty effectively down the years, but yes, the Sweden and NI games suggest that there may be something to be gained from them.
    Don't forget Switzerland have done so well in qualifying partly because they were gaming the system - avoiding friendlies to keep their world ranking up and ensure a top seeding. Their record in finals tournaments is solid but not spectacular; never past the last 16 in recent years. I think we can acknowledge they're a good team while still being happy to have drawn them as top seeds

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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    Don't forget Switzerland have done so well in qualifying partly because they were gaming the system - avoiding friendlies to keep their world ranking up and ensure a top seeding. Their record in finals tournaments is solid but not spectacular; never past the last 16 in recent years. I think we can acknowledge they're a good team while still being happy to have drawn them as top seeds
    Yep, apart from Poland they were the best seeded team to get

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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    Don't forget Switzerland have done so well in qualifying partly because they were gaming the system - avoiding friendlies to keep their world ranking up and ensure a top seeding. Their record in finals tournaments is solid but not spectacular; never past the last 16 in recent years. I think we can acknowledge they're a good team while still being happy to have drawn them as top seeds
    also were pretty fortunate to beat NI over 2 legs in the WC playoff. apologies if this was previously mentioned.

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    Ok people.. this may have been the saddest post I ever wrote.. but this is how I think the whole qualifying process is going to turn out, and what the implications of it are for Ireland.. who I think will finish third in Group D

    Group A

    England (A1)
    Czech Rep (B8)
    Bulgaria (C6)
    Montenegro (C10)
    Kosovo (D1)

    Likely qualifiers:
    England
    Czech Republic/Bulgaria Irelands preference: Bulgaria, and hope for Czech Republic to move into Group B play offs


    Group B

    Portugal (A1)
    Ukraine (B1)
    Serbia (C1)
    Lithuania (C15)
    Luxembourg

    Likely qualifiers:
    Portugal
    Ukraine/Serbia Irelands preference: Makes no odds, top 3 all topped groups so will play in their own play off groups if they don’t qualify automatically


    Group C

    Netherlands (A1)
    Germany (A11)
    Northern Ireland (B12)
    Estonia (C14)
    Belarus (D1)

    Likely qualifiers:
    Netherlands
    Germany Ireland preference: Makes no odds, Estonia won’t make play offs, Belarus are in Group D play off already, and WCS Northern Ireland will move to Group A play off




    Group D

    Switzerland (A1)
    Denmark (B1)
    Ireland (B11)
    Georgia (D1)
    Gibraltar

    Likely qualifiers:
    Switzerland
    Denmark/Ireland Irelands preference: Automatic qualification. Assuming Switzerland and Denmark qualify, Russia move up into the Group B play off spot vacated by Denmark. If Georgia do not qualify automatically, they play in the Group D play off.


    Group E

    Croatia
    Wales (B7)
    Slovakia (B9)
    Hungary (C7)
    Azerbijan (D7)

    Likely qualifiers:
    Croatia
    Wales/Slovakia/Hungary Irelands preference: Croatia and Wales or Slovakia. The lower of those two, would then likely take a place in the B group play off

















    Group F

    Spain
    Sweden (B1)
    Norway (C1)
    Romania (C5)
    Faroe Islands
    Malta

    Likely qualifiers:
    Spain
    Sweden/Norway/Romania Irelands preference: Norway or Romania. If Sweden do not finish second, they will play in the B play offs. If Norway do not finish second, they will play in the C play offs. If any of Scotland, Norway, Serbia or Finland finish second in their group, Romania will play in the C play off.


    Group G

    Poland (A10)
    Austria (B6)
    Israel (C8)
    Slovenia (C13)
    Macedonia (D1)
    Latvia

    Likely qualifiers:

    Any 2 from top 4 Ireland’s preference: Poland and Austria. This would clear play off spots in both Group A and B that Ireland could potentially move into.








    Group H
    France
    Iceland (A12)
    Turkey (B10)
    Albania (C12)
    Moldova
    Andorra

    Likely Qualifiers:
    France
    Iceland/Turkey/Albania Ireland’s preference: France, Turkey. I don’t think Iceland will qualify direct, but more than 8 Group A teams will, meaning they will be in the Group A play off. If Iceland do qualify, then Turkey will either play in the B or A play offs, depending on other results.


    Group I

    Belguim
    Russia (B5)
    Scotland (C1)
    Cyprus (C7)
    Kazakhstan
    San Marino

    Likely qualifiers:
    Belguim
    Russia Ireland’s preference: Belguim and Scotland, with Russia to go to Group B play offs. Unlikely though, Russia will be favourites to qualify directly. Scotland will then go to Group C play offs

    Group J

    Italy
    Bosnia (B1)
    Finland (C1)
    Greece (C9)
    Armenia
    Lichtenstein

    Likely qualifiers:
    Italy
    Bosnia/Finland/Greece Ireland’s preference: Italy, Greece, with Bosnia and Finland going to the B and C play offs respectively
    My Call:

    Direct qualifiers

    England, Czech Republic, Portugal, Serbia, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Croatia,
    Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Austria, France, Turkey, Belguim, Russia, Italy, Bosnia

    Play off groups.

    A
    Iceland
    Northern Ireland
    Isreal
    Hungary

    B
    Ukraine
    Turkey
    Wales
    Ireland

    C
    Scotland
    Norway
    Finland
    Bulgaria

    D
    Georgia
    Macedonia
    Kosovo
    Belarus


    Ironically, in this simulation I believe 7 Nations League Group B teams will qualify directly, meaning the Republic of Ireland, as the 11th ranked team will then get the final Group B play off spot. Which will mean an away leg game against the highest ranking Group B team that didn’t qualify (in this case Ukraine). The winners of that game would play the winners of Wales/Turkey

    However, this also means that the 12th ranked Group B team, Northern Ireland, will be promoted upwards to the Group A play off, which only has Iceland unqualified automatically, and they would have a home leg play off semi final against Isreal, with the winners potentially having a home final against Iceland/Hungary.

    The best result for Ireland vis a vis play offs.. is for only 6 group B teams to qualify automatically. This will mean that the next 4 will play in the group B play off, with Ireland going up to the the Group A play offs where there may even be no Group A team left unqualified.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Insidetherock View Post
    Ok people.. this may have been the saddest post I ever wrote.. but this is how I think the whole qualifying process is going to turn out, and what the implications of it are for Ireland.. who I think will finish third in Group D

    Group A

    England (A1)
    Czech Rep (B8)
    Bulgaria (C6)
    Montenegro (C10)
    Kosovo (D1)

    Likely qualifiers:
    England
    Czech Republic/Bulgaria Irelands preference: Bulgaria, and hope for Czech Republic to move into Group B play offs


    Group B

    Portugal (A1)
    Ukraine (B1)
    Serbia (C1)
    Lithuania (C15)
    Luxembourg

    Likely qualifiers:
    Portugal
    Ukraine/Serbia Irelands preference: Makes no odds, top 3 all topped groups so will play in their own play off groups if they don’t qualify automatically


    Group C

    Netherlands (A1)
    Germany (A11)
    Northern Ireland (B12)
    Estonia (C14)
    Belarus (D1)

    Likely qualifiers:
    Netherlands
    Germany Ireland preference: Makes no odds, Estonia won’t make play offs, Belarus are in Group D play off already, and WCS Northern Ireland will move to Group A play off




    Group D

    Switzerland (A1)
    Denmark (B1)
    Ireland (B11)
    Georgia (D1)
    Gibraltar

    Likely qualifiers:
    Switzerland
    Denmark/Ireland Irelands preference: Automatic qualification. Assuming Switzerland and Denmark qualify, Russia move up into the Group B play off spot vacated by Denmark. If Georgia do not qualify automatically, they play in the Group D play off.


    Group E

    Croatia
    Wales (B7)
    Slovakia (B9)
    Hungary (C7)
    Azerbijan (D7)

    Likely qualifiers:
    Croatia
    Wales/Slovakia/Hungary Irelands preference: Croatia and Wales or Slovakia. The lower of those two, would then likely take a place in the B group play off

















    Group F

    Spain
    Sweden (B1)
    Norway (C1)
    Romania (C5)
    Faroe Islands
    Malta

    Likely qualifiers:
    Spain
    Sweden/Norway/Romania Irelands preference: Norway or Romania. If Sweden do not finish second, they will play in the B play offs. If Norway do not finish second, they will play in the C play offs. If any of Scotland, Norway, Serbia or Finland finish second in their group, Romania will play in the C play off.


    Group G

    Poland (A10)
    Austria (B6)
    Israel (C8)
    Slovenia (C13)
    Macedonia (D1)
    Latvia

    Likely qualifiers:

    Any 2 from top 4 Ireland’s preference: Poland and Austria. This would clear play off spots in both Group A and B that Ireland could potentially move into.








    Group H
    France
    Iceland (A12)
    Turkey (B10)
    Albania (C12)
    Moldova
    Andorra

    Likely Qualifiers:
    France
    Iceland/Turkey/Albania Ireland’s preference: France, Turkey. I don’t think Iceland will qualify direct, but more than 8 Group A teams will, meaning they will be in the Group A play off. If Iceland do qualify, then Turkey will either play in the B or A play offs, depending on other results.


    Group I

    Belguim
    Russia (B5)
    Scotland (C1)
    Cyprus (C7)
    Kazakhstan
    San Marino

    Likely qualifiers:
    Belguim
    Russia Ireland’s preference: Belguim and Scotland, with Russia to go to Group B play offs. Unlikely though, Russia will be favourites to qualify directly. Scotland will then go to Group C play offs

    Group J

    Italy
    Bosnia (B1)
    Finland (C1)
    Greece (C9)
    Armenia
    Lichtenstein

    Likely qualifiers:
    Italy
    Bosnia/Finland/Greece Ireland’s preference: Italy, Greece, with Bosnia and Finland going to the B and C play offs respectively
    My Call:

    Direct qualifiers

    England, Czech Republic, Portugal, Serbia, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Croatia,
    Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Austria, France, Turkey, Belguim, Russia, Italy, Bosnia

    Play off groups.

    A
    Iceland
    Northern Ireland
    Isreal
    Hungary

    B
    Ukraine
    Turkey
    Wales
    Ireland

    C
    Scotland
    Norway
    Finland
    Bulgaria

    D
    Georgia
    Macedonia
    Kosovo
    Belarus


    Ironically, in this simulation I believe 7 Nations League Group B teams will qualify directly, meaning the Republic of Ireland, as the 11th ranked team will then get the final Group B play off spot. Which will mean an away leg game against the highest ranking Group B team that didn’t qualify (in this case Ukraine). The winners of that game would play the winners of Wales/Turkey

    However, this also means that the 12th ranked Group B team, Northern Ireland, will be promoted upwards to the Group A play off, which only has Iceland unqualified automatically, and they would have a home leg play off semi final against Isreal, with the winners potentially having a home final against Iceland/Hungary.

    The best result for Ireland vis a vis play offs.. is for only 6 group B teams to qualify automatically. This will mean that the next 4 will play in the group B play off, with Ireland going up to the the Group A play offs where there may even be no Group A team left unqualified.
    A lot of effort in that post, not sure its sane but 10/10 for application

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    I'm not happy with the group, but I'm happy with the fixtures. If we were in a normal Ireland cycle, we'd look at the group and think that it's winnable. We're not in a normal cycle, but the group gives us an opportunity to get some pride back into set up. The fixture schedule gives us an opportunity to get off to a good start, bed in a couple of players, with little danger of not winning the game. It gives time on the training ground to focus on ourselves and one opponent, rather than 2 opponents. The 2nd game is exactly the game we needed too.
    Likewise with the June fixtures, we can focus solely on Denmark which is brilliant. As others have said, if we could leave June with 10 points it would be super.
    That's what I love about these high school girls, man. I get older, they stay the same age

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diggs246 View Post
    A lot of effort in that post, not sure its sane but 10/10 for application
    Perfectly sane my good man haha.. the Nations League has thrown up quite a few anomalies that might need ironing out in the future.

    Like, they have decreed that each Group (ABCD) must provide a qualifier.. but what if All 12 group A teams qualify (a not unreasonable assumption, given that they are the 12 top ranked teams in the nations league)

    And the "feeding up" process could see Ireland or Northern Ireland potentially in an easier play off than teams that finished higher than them in the Nations League.

    For example, let me take my own example a step further.. I assumed that France and Turkey would qualify from Group H, leaving Ireland to play in the Group B play offs...

    But, assume Iceland qualify instead of Turkey, and all 12 Group A teams go through automatically.. then with no one in Group A play offs, and Turkey going back to the Group B play offs as one of the best four non qualifiers..

    Then the Group A qualifiers would be:

    Ireland
    Northern Ireland
    Israel
    Hungary

    while the Group B play offs would be:

    Ukraine
    Turkey
    Wales
    Romania

    (I made a slight error in the original post, the original group B playoffs should have read

    Ukraine
    Wales
    Ireland
    Northern Ireland

    whilst Group A would have been

    Iceland
    Israel
    Hungary
    Romania


    As you can see here.. both Ireland and Northern Ireland could conceivably end up in play offs against Group C teams, with home advantage in the semi finals.. while Wales who finished higher, could face two away ties to qualify against higher ranked Group B teams..

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  17. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diggs246 View Post
    Yep, apart from Poland they were the best seeded team to get
    The Swiss are the nr1 seeds, top of pot 1 . This Swiss team is the best Swiss team I have ever seen. They fell flat against Sweden but clearly they are a lot better than that performance, they have been making great strides with this coach they have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Insidetherock View Post
    Perfectly sane my good man haha.. the Nations League has thrown up quite a few anomalies that might need ironing out in the future.

    Like, they have decreed that each Group (ABCD) must provide a qualifier.. but what if All 12 group A teams qualify (a not unreasonable assumption, given that they are the 12 top ranked teams in the nations league)

    And the "feeding up" process could see Ireland or Northern Ireland potentially in an easier play off than teams that finished higher than them in the Nations League.

    For example, let me take my own example a step further.. I assumed that France and Turkey would qualify from Group H, leaving Ireland to play in the Group B play offs...

    But, assume Iceland qualify instead of Turkey, and all 12 Group A teams go through automatically.. then with no one in Group A play offs, and Turkey going back to the Group B play offs as one of the best four non qualifiers..

    Then the Group A qualifiers would be:

    Ireland
    Northern Ireland
    Israel
    Hungary

    while the Group B play offs would be:

    Ukraine
    Turkey
    Wales
    Romania

    (I made a slight error in the original post, the original group B playoffs should have read

    Ukraine
    Wales
    Ireland
    Northern Ireland

    whilst Group A would have been

    Iceland
    Israel
    Hungary
    Romania


    As you can see here.. both Ireland and Northern Ireland could conceivably end up in play offs against Group C teams, with home advantage in the semi finals.. while Wales who finished higher, could face two away ties to qualify against higher ranked Group B teams..
    That assumes Geysir's (perfectly reasonable) reading of the mechanism is correct. There's an alternative theory based on the actual written regulations (but which contains a degree of ambiguity) that suggests there'll be a draw among the B teams to determine which play off path they go into.

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    Great work above.

    Ultimately it still boils down to collectively how many As and Bs don't qualify, or put another way, how many Cs or Ds qualify directly. As long as 15 As and Bs qualify / 5 or fewer Cs/Ds qualify we get a reprieve of sorts. Then it boils down to the degree of difficulty of the play off path.

    I think it does look like the only A team that is at risk of not qualifying directly is Iceland. Of the Bs only really ourselves, NI, Bosnia, Wales, Slovakia or Turkey look a risk. But as long as it's either Wales or Slovakia, not both, then that'd be in our favour.

    Why do you say we'd prefer Norway or Romania to qualify over Sweden? Surely we prefer Sweden to vacate their B play off spot? Or are you being greedy and looking to be in the A play off path? Similarly, why do we want Russia not to qualify? I'd have thought we want as many Bs as possible to go straight through. If 8 go through then that means we must be in the B play off path (i.e., 4 Bs don't qualify so they all go into the B path). If 9 Bs go through there are only 3 B teams for the B path so a C gets bumped up, and 3-4 Cs may also go into the A path.

    Edit: I just read the explanation that ideally only 6 Bs qualify but all or nearly all !2 As do.
    Last edited by Stuttgart88; 03/12/2018 at 8:37 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by geysir View Post
    The Swiss are the nr1 seeds, top of pot 1 . This Swiss team is the best Swiss team I have ever seen. They fell flat against Sweden but clearly they are a lot better than that performance, they have been making great strides with this coach they have.
    Stop being lemon .You know well the following teams are better:
    Portugal, Holland, England, Belgium, France, Spain, Italy, Croatia

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  23. #96
    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
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    Switzerland are technically number 1 seeds for qualifying on account of topping the Nations League with the most points.

    Obviously that's just UEFA being UEFA...

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    Anyone who actually watches football knows full well that Switzerland was the 2nd best draw we could have gotten. Worth remembering that a lot if this ranking is down to them cheating the system and not playing friendlies.

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  26. #98
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    The other forum are back in my good books!!
    https://forum.ybig.ie/will-monkey-at...opic56734.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuttgart88 View Post
    Great work above.

    Ultimately it still boils down to collectively how many As and Bs don't qualify, or put another way, how many Cs or Ds qualify directly. As long as 15 As and Bs qualify / 5 or fewer Cs/Ds qualify we get a reprieve of sorts. Then it boils down to the degree of difficulty of the play off path.

    I think it does look like the only A team that is at risk of not qualifying directly is Iceland. Of the Bs only really ourselves, NI, Bosnia, Wales, Slovakia or Turkey look a risk. But as long as it's either Wales or Slovakia, not both, then that'd be in our favour.

    Why do you say we'd prefer Norway or Romania to qualify over Sweden? Surely we prefer Sweden to vacate their B play off spot? Or are you being greedy and looking to be in the A play off path? Similarly, why do we want Russia not to qualify? I'd have thought we want as many Bs as possible to go straight through. If 8 go through then that means we must be in the B play off path (i.e., 4 Bs don't qualify so they all go into the B path). If 9 Bs go through there are only 3 B teams for the B path so a C gets bumped up, and 3-4 Cs may also go into the A path.

    Edit: I just read the explanation that ideally only 6 Bs qualify but all or nearly all !2 As do.
    Yeah, it's kind of mental how my mind is working on this, but assuming that we don't qualify directly, then I think being in the A play off would probably afford a better chance of qualifying than being in the B one.

    I mean right now, I'd fancy us to beat Iceland.. but not Sweden/Russia/Ukraine/Wales/Turkey etc.. so assuming 6 B teams qualify.. the next 4 get the play off spots.. and we get bumped up.

    Like I said, it's not way beyond the bounds of possibility, especially if Iceland qualify ahead of Turkey leaving Turkey in a B play off spot, that we could conceivably be in the A play off with NI and two C teams.

    I mean, lets all play a game here..

    Everyone go through the groups and pick ye're top two.. once that is done, you can calculate the play offs yourselves... or I'll do it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuttgart88 View Post
    That assumes Geysir's (perfectly reasonable) reading of the mechanism is correct. There's an alternative theory based on the actual written regulations (but which contains a degree of ambiguity) that suggests there'll be a draw among the B teams to determine which play off path they go into.
    Here are the final placements of teams in all 4 Nations League groups.. so this will be what is used to place teams into the play off paths at the end of qualifying.

    Group A - Top 4, but assuming 11-12 of them qualify, the Top 4 will be made from promoted teams.

    Group B - Bosnia, Ukraine, Denmark, Sweden... then Russia, Austria, Wales, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Turkey, Rep. Ireland, Norn Ireland.

    As teams qualify their places in the play off spots are taken by the next team in the rankings, until all 4 spots are taken from the order above.. so like I said.. if 6 of the first 10 qualify, the other 4 go into the play offs and us and Norn Ireland lose out.

    But if there are spaces left in A, then we go up to A to fill those spaces until they have four spaces filled too.

    So if seven qualify directly, the next 4 spaces would include us, being the 11th in Group B.

    Here are the final rankings of the groups..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E...tions_League_A

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E...tions_League_B

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E...tions_League_C

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E...tions_League_D

    The whole thing makes the Nations League a very important mini league every couple of years because if you can get back into Group B, you'll pretty much guaranteed a play off spot at the least.

    We'll be in C next time, but that'll decide seedings for the world cup draw. It's almost imperative that we win our next nations league group to get back into B going into the seedings for Germany 2024

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