Switzerland are a good bit ahead of the rest in the group but in the end its just two games between us and them, us getting 3 or even 4 points off them wouldnt be the biggest shock ever, they arent like a Germany (not the current side though!) who you would expect to win this group 8-0-0 Switzerland will definitely come top 2 in the group and almost certainly finish top but unless the rest of the teams collapse I think this group will go similarly to our WC group for 2018, Ireland (if we improv that is) and Denmark are alot better than anything Switzerland played in their WC group bar Portugal so I would expect them to win 4 from 4 from the minnows and then get 2 wins out of 4 or so from us and Denmark.
I think the schedule is amazing, not just because of our start to the campaign but Denmark travel to Switzerland first up and if they lose their they could find themselves under alot of pressure coming into the Ireland match and going into that we will be a complete unknown quantity and we could catch them on the hop. Win that and the Danes have an absolute mountain to climb and we have some wiggle room which Mick would love to have. Next we have Gibralter but after that we get Switzerland at home and if we managed to win that game we would have one foot in the finals almost.
Fixture list added to the Group D wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_E...ifying_Group_D
We could easily be top of the group in June after playing Gibraltar twice and Georgia, but it's a really tough end to the group. The "easiest" fixture in the last four games is away to Georgia. We'll be facing the top seeds twice. Denmark play Gibraltar at home three days before facing us, with the Swiss going to Faro* the same night we finish against Denmark at home. Even the free date in September comes after the qualifier against Switzerland, if it was the other way around we could see some experimentation ahead of the qualifier.
* assuming Gibraltar continue to play their qualifiers in Faro
Yep, we aren't playing on on match days 6 and 9, both next season - Sept (a month before Georgia away) and November (3 days before Denmark at home). It'd have been handy to have a couple of friendlies earlier in the sequence than that, but the September friendly will be useful to prepare for Georgia away.
Don't forget Switzerland have done so well in qualifying partly because they were gaming the system - avoiding friendlies to keep their world ranking up and ensure a top seeding. Their record in finals tournaments is solid but not spectacular; never past the last 16 in recent years. I think we can acknowledge they're a good team while still being happy to have drawn them as top seeds
Ok people.. this may have been the saddest post I ever wrote.. but this is how I think the whole qualifying process is going to turn out, and what the implications of it are for Ireland.. who I think will finish third in Group D
Group A
England (A1)
Czech Rep (B8)
Bulgaria (C6)
Montenegro (C10)
Kosovo (D1)
Likely qualifiers:
England
Czech Republic/Bulgaria Irelands preference: Bulgaria, and hope for Czech Republic to move into Group B play offs
Group B
Portugal (A1)
Ukraine (B1)
Serbia (C1)
Lithuania (C15)
Luxembourg
Likely qualifiers:
Portugal
Ukraine/Serbia Irelands preference: Makes no odds, top 3 all topped groups so will play in their own play off groups if they don’t qualify automatically
Group C
Netherlands (A1)
Germany (A11)
Northern Ireland (B12)
Estonia (C14)
Belarus (D1)
Likely qualifiers:
Netherlands
Germany Ireland preference: Makes no odds, Estonia won’t make play offs, Belarus are in Group D play off already, and WCS Northern Ireland will move to Group A play off
Group D
Switzerland (A1)
Denmark (B1)
Ireland (B11)
Georgia (D1)
Gibraltar
Likely qualifiers:
Switzerland
Denmark/Ireland Irelands preference: Automatic qualification. Assuming Switzerland and Denmark qualify, Russia move up into the Group B play off spot vacated by Denmark. If Georgia do not qualify automatically, they play in the Group D play off.
Group E
Croatia
Wales (B7)
Slovakia (B9)
Hungary (C7)
Azerbijan (D7)
Likely qualifiers:
Croatia
Wales/Slovakia/Hungary Irelands preference: Croatia and Wales or Slovakia. The lower of those two, would then likely take a place in the B group play off
Group F
Spain
Sweden (B1)
Norway (C1)
Romania (C5)
Faroe Islands
Malta
Likely qualifiers:
Spain
Sweden/Norway/Romania Irelands preference: Norway or Romania. If Sweden do not finish second, they will play in the B play offs. If Norway do not finish second, they will play in the C play offs. If any of Scotland, Norway, Serbia or Finland finish second in their group, Romania will play in the C play off.
Group G
Poland (A10)
Austria (B6)
Israel (C8)
Slovenia (C13)
Macedonia (D1)
Latvia
Likely qualifiers:
Any 2 from top 4 Ireland’s preference: Poland and Austria. This would clear play off spots in both Group A and B that Ireland could potentially move into.
Group H
France
Iceland (A12)
Turkey (B10)
Albania (C12)
Moldova
Andorra
Likely Qualifiers:
France
Iceland/Turkey/Albania Ireland’s preference: France, Turkey. I don’t think Iceland will qualify direct, but more than 8 Group A teams will, meaning they will be in the Group A play off. If Iceland do qualify, then Turkey will either play in the B or A play offs, depending on other results.
Group I
Belguim
Russia (B5)
Scotland (C1)
Cyprus (C7)
Kazakhstan
San Marino
Likely qualifiers:
Belguim
Russia Ireland’s preference: Belguim and Scotland, with Russia to go to Group B play offs. Unlikely though, Russia will be favourites to qualify directly. Scotland will then go to Group C play offs
Group J
Italy
Bosnia (B1)
Finland (C1)
Greece (C9)
Armenia
Lichtenstein
Likely qualifiers:
Italy
Bosnia/Finland/Greece Ireland’s preference: Italy, Greece, with Bosnia and Finland going to the B and C play offs respectively
My Call:
Direct qualifiers
England, Czech Republic, Portugal, Serbia, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Croatia,
Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Poland, Austria, France, Turkey, Belguim, Russia, Italy, Bosnia
Play off groups.
A
Iceland
Northern Ireland
Isreal
Hungary
B
Ukraine
Turkey
Wales
Ireland
C
Scotland
Norway
Finland
Bulgaria
D
Georgia
Macedonia
Kosovo
Belarus
Ironically, in this simulation I believe 7 Nations League Group B teams will qualify directly, meaning the Republic of Ireland, as the 11th ranked team will then get the final Group B play off spot. Which will mean an away leg game against the highest ranking Group B team that didn’t qualify (in this case Ukraine). The winners of that game would play the winners of Wales/Turkey
However, this also means that the 12th ranked Group B team, Northern Ireland, will be promoted upwards to the Group A play off, which only has Iceland unqualified automatically, and they would have a home leg play off semi final against Isreal, with the winners potentially having a home final against Iceland/Hungary.
The best result for Ireland vis a vis play offs.. is for only 6 group B teams to qualify automatically. This will mean that the next 4 will play in the group B play off, with Ireland going up to the the Group A play offs where there may even be no Group A team left unqualified.
I'm not happy with the group, but I'm happy with the fixtures. If we were in a normal Ireland cycle, we'd look at the group and think that it's winnable. We're not in a normal cycle, but the group gives us an opportunity to get some pride back into set up. The fixture schedule gives us an opportunity to get off to a good start, bed in a couple of players, with little danger of not winning the game. It gives time on the training ground to focus on ourselves and one opponent, rather than 2 opponents. The 2nd game is exactly the game we needed too.
Likewise with the June fixtures, we can focus solely on Denmark which is brilliant. As others have said, if we could leave June with 10 points it would be super.
Here they come! It’s the charge of the “Thanks” Brigade!
Perfectly sane my good man haha.. the Nations League has thrown up quite a few anomalies that might need ironing out in the future.
Like, they have decreed that each Group (ABCD) must provide a qualifier.. but what if All 12 group A teams qualify (a not unreasonable assumption, given that they are the 12 top ranked teams in the nations league)
And the "feeding up" process could see Ireland or Northern Ireland potentially in an easier play off than teams that finished higher than them in the Nations League.
For example, let me take my own example a step further.. I assumed that France and Turkey would qualify from Group H, leaving Ireland to play in the Group B play offs...
But, assume Iceland qualify instead of Turkey, and all 12 Group A teams go through automatically.. then with no one in Group A play offs, and Turkey going back to the Group B play offs as one of the best four non qualifiers..
Then the Group A qualifiers would be:
Ireland
Northern Ireland
Israel
Hungary
while the Group B play offs would be:
Ukraine
Turkey
Wales
Romania
(I made a slight error in the original post, the original group B playoffs should have read
Ukraine
Wales
Ireland
Northern Ireland
whilst Group A would have been
Iceland
Israel
Hungary
Romania
As you can see here.. both Ireland and Northern Ireland could conceivably end up in play offs against Group C teams, with home advantage in the semi finals.. while Wales who finished higher, could face two away ties to qualify against higher ranked Group B teams..
That assumes Geysir's (perfectly reasonable) reading of the mechanism is correct. There's an alternative theory based on the actual written regulations (but which contains a degree of ambiguity) that suggests there'll be a draw among the B teams to determine which play off path they go into.
Great work above.
Ultimately it still boils down to collectively how many As and Bs don't qualify, or put another way, how many Cs or Ds qualify directly. As long as 15 As and Bs qualify / 5 or fewer Cs/Ds qualify we get a reprieve of sorts. Then it boils down to the degree of difficulty of the play off path.
I think it does look like the only A team that is at risk of not qualifying directly is Iceland. Of the Bs only really ourselves, NI, Bosnia, Wales, Slovakia or Turkey look a risk. But as long as it's either Wales or Slovakia, not both, then that'd be in our favour.
Why do you say we'd prefer Norway or Romania to qualify over Sweden? Surely we prefer Sweden to vacate their B play off spot? Or are you being greedy and looking to be in the A play off path? Similarly, why do we want Russia not to qualify? I'd have thought we want as many Bs as possible to go straight through. If 8 go through then that means we must be in the B play off path (i.e., 4 Bs don't qualify so they all go into the B path). If 9 Bs go through there are only 3 B teams for the B path so a C gets bumped up, and 3-4 Cs may also go into the A path.
Edit: I just read the explanation that ideally only 6 Bs qualify but all or nearly all !2 As do.
Last edited by Stuttgart88; 03/12/2018 at 7:37 PM.
Switzerland are technically number 1 seeds for qualifying on account of topping the Nations League with the most points.
Obviously that's just UEFA being UEFA...
Anyone who actually watches football knows full well that Switzerland was the 2nd best draw we could have gotten. Worth remembering that a lot if this ranking is down to them cheating the system and not playing friendlies.
The other forum are back in my good books!!
https://forum.ybig.ie/will-monkey-at...opic56734.html
Yeah, it's kind of mental how my mind is working on this, but assuming that we don't qualify directly, then I think being in the A play off would probably afford a better chance of qualifying than being in the B one.
I mean right now, I'd fancy us to beat Iceland.. but not Sweden/Russia/Ukraine/Wales/Turkey etc.. so assuming 6 B teams qualify.. the next 4 get the play off spots.. and we get bumped up.
Like I said, it's not way beyond the bounds of possibility, especially if Iceland qualify ahead of Turkey leaving Turkey in a B play off spot, that we could conceivably be in the A play off with NI and two C teams.
I mean, lets all play a game here..
Everyone go through the groups and pick ye're top two.. once that is done, you can calculate the play offs yourselves... or I'll do it.
Here are the final placements of teams in all 4 Nations League groups.. so this will be what is used to place teams into the play off paths at the end of qualifying.
Group A - Top 4, but assuming 11-12 of them qualify, the Top 4 will be made from promoted teams.
Group B - Bosnia, Ukraine, Denmark, Sweden... then Russia, Austria, Wales, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Turkey, Rep. Ireland, Norn Ireland.
As teams qualify their places in the play off spots are taken by the next team in the rankings, until all 4 spots are taken from the order above.. so like I said.. if 6 of the first 10 qualify, the other 4 go into the play offs and us and Norn Ireland lose out.
But if there are spaces left in A, then we go up to A to fill those spaces until they have four spaces filled too.
So if seven qualify directly, the next 4 spaces would include us, being the 11th in Group B.
Here are the final rankings of the groups..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E...tions_League_A
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E...tions_League_B
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E...tions_League_C
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E...tions_League_D
The whole thing makes the Nations League a very important mini league every couple of years because if you can get back into Group B, you'll pretty much guaranteed a play off spot at the least.
We'll be in C next time, but that'll decide seedings for the world cup draw. It's almost imperative that we win our next nations league group to get back into B going into the seedings for Germany 2024
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