Euro 2020 Qualifying Group D

[davidatrb]

According to my own reading of the rules for the play offs, at the half way stage of the qualifiers only 1 Group A team I think is in danger of not qualifying, ie Iceland, who are currently level on points with Turkey in 3rd place in Group H

I am also assuming that both Germany and Holland will eventually overtake Northern Ireland, and if this scenario happens then should Denmark and Switzerland overtake us for places one and two, we will finish up in a play off with

Iceland
Ireland
N Ireland
Isreal

Should Iceland qualify directly, pushing Turkey into third, then Turkey will take a place in the Group B play off making the Group A play off look like this

Ireland
Northern Ireland
Isreal
Romania

(a dream scenario which would mean Ireland would have a home semi and final if they qualified in the play offs)


A real fly in the ointment at the moment, could be the Czech Republic overtaking Kosovo meaning Ireland could still end up in a Group B play off with Bosnia/Wales/Slovakia

All in all though, it would take an absolute crazy set of results to ensure Ireland won't get the minimum of a play off if they do not go through automatically

I think there will be a draw for the League A playoff not just next 4 teams.
With these conditions, the draw procedure is as follows, starting with League D and working up to League A:[6]

Form a path with four teams from the same league.
If there are more than four teams qualified in a given league, draw which teams will participate in the play-off path of that league.
Remaining teams are drawn into a path of a higher league.

[Insidetherock]

The only way I see an anomaly happening here, is if all 12 Group A winners qualify, and 6 of the Group B qualifiers also qualify. This would mean that next 4 teams in Group B, would play off against each other to have at least 1 team qualify via the Group B pathway, but with the group A pathway empty of teams, and having to be filled by teams further down, you could have a scenario like I said where the two Irelands could be in a play off with two teams from Group C, even though they finished behind the other 4 Group B teams in the rankings at the end of the Nations League.

What I think could happen in that scenario, i.e. assuming that Group A is empty and there are for example 6 teams not qualified from Group B, the best two ranked teams from B, would go up to A, and the next four B teams would play off. Then the two teams that went up to A, would be joined by two more from C, giving better ranking teams the advantage of playing lower ranked teams.

If that is the case, then Ireland should be hoping Iceland are beaten to qualification by Turkey, because none of the teams that finish in the four play off spots in B, can go up to play a team unqualified in a higher group.

Realistically I'd prefer a play off with for example

Iceland/Ireland/N Ireland/Isreal over one with Bosnia/Wales/Czech Rep/Slovakia/Turkey

What this is also really showing is the huge importance of the Nations League for qualifying for competitions

Get back into the B group and you're almost guarenteed a play off spot for every Euro's

[Stuttgart88]

I think there will be a draw for the League A playoff not just next 4 teams.
With these conditions, the draw procedure is as follows, starting with League D and working up to League A:[6]

Form a path with four teams from the same league.
If there are more than four teams qualified in a given league, draw which teams will participate in the play-off path of that league.
Remaining teams are drawn into a path of a higher league.

I thought we established (Geysir was certain anyway) that there is no draw. It’s purely mechanical based on ranking. The discussion - all about the rules and possible anomalies - was in the Wales NL match thread which Tets closed and locked. I’d quite like all the relevant posts moved to a separate UEFA 2020 Qualification Process thread if that’d be possible.

[davidatrb]

I thought we established (Geysir was certain anyway) that there is no draw. It’s purely mechanical based on ranking. The discussion - all about the rules and possible anomalies - was in the Wales NL match thread which Tets closed and locked. I’d quite like all the relevant posts moved to a separate UEFA 2020 Qualification Process thread if that’d be possible.

Thanks. I hadn’t seen that thread. Painful reading! I don’t want to bring it all up again.

Can I just show an example of what I understand. The concept of drawing teams is mentioned on Wikipedia.

[tetsujin1979]

I thought we established (Geysir was certain anyway) that there is no draw. It’s purely mechanical based on ranking. The discussion - all about the rules and possible anomalies - was in the Wales NL match thread which Tets closed and locked. I’d quite like all the relevant posts moved to a separate UEFA 2020 Qualification Process thread if that’d be possible.

Sure, link to the relevant posts and I'll move them into a new thread

[DannyInvincible]

Anyone have a working stream for the Georgia-Denmark game, by any chance?

[davidatrb]

I thought we established (Geysir was certain anyway) that there is no draw. It’s purely mechanical based on ranking. The discussion - all about the rules and possible anomalies - was in the Wales NL match thread which Tets closed and locked. I’d quite like all the relevant posts moved to a separate UEFA 2020 Qualification Process thread if that’d be possible.

(making some assumptions on who will qualify directly here btw)

League D
Georgia (gw)
Kosovo (gw)
Macedonia (gw)
Belarus (gw)

No draw required all go into Path D playoff.

League C teams not directly qualified that inherit one of the playoff spots
Scotland (gw)
Serbia (gw)
Norway (gw)
Bulgaria
Hungary
Israel
Romania

Scotland, Serbia and Norway go into Path C and one other team is drawn (say Hungary). The other 3 move into the Path B draw.

So Path C is
Scotland
Serbia
Norway
Hungary ( or whoever is drawn with group winners)

League B teams not directly qualified
Bosnia (gw)
Sloavakia
Ireland
N Ireland

So Bosnia as group winner goes into Path B and draw three of Slovakia, Ireland N. Ireland and also in the draw the three from League C that haven’t been placed yet.

So Path B could be:
Bosnia
Ireland (or whoever is drawn)
Romania (or whoever is drawn)
Israel (or whoever is drawn)

Path A will be what left.
Iceland
Slovakia (depending if not already drawn)
N Ireland (depending if not already drawn)
Romania (depending if not already drawn)

Do ppl not agree?

[geysir]

Thanks. I hadn’t seen that thread. Painful reading! I don’t want to bring it all up again.

Can I just show an example of what I understand. The concept of drawing teams is mentioned on Wikipedia.

The truth, the whole truth about the play off draw is in this thread, in this post.

[geysir]

Anyone have a working stream for the Georgia-Denmark game, by any chance?

This one is working right now
scroll down to the match, no commentary just crowd noise.

[geysir]

Time is moving at glacial speed.

[Eirambler]

Not sure whether I'm more encouraged by the poor performance from Denmark or terrified about us going to Tbilisi after that.

[geysir]

The good news is the result, the bad news is that Georgia look very good at home, we'll be doing well to get a point, never mind three.

[tetsujin1979]

Georgia have a good recent record in Tblisi, winning six of the last seven before this game. The seventh was the loss to Switzerland in March.

[TrapAPony]

The good news is the result, the bad news is that Georgia look very good at home, we'll be doing well to get a point, never mind three.

We will need to score early against them and burst their bubble. The longer it stays 0-0 the more confident they become.

[Insidetherock]

The good news is the result, the bad news is that Georgia look very good at home, we'll be doing well to get a point, never mind three.

We have the ability to make them fall asleep and catch them late on with a jammy goal by Mc Goldrick.. others teams problem is trying to play football against them

[samhaydenjr]

Not sure whether I'm more encouraged by the poor performance from Denmark or terrified about us going to Tbilisi after that.

The good news is the result, the bad news is that Georgia look very good at home, we'll be doing well to get a point, never mind three.

I think overall we've got to be very pleased with the result, as we can now go to Georgia knowing that a even defeat won't be a death blow to our chances (as long as we don't get beaten by a Swiss team who have just been beaten by Denmark), but a victory (especially if the Swiss beat the Danes) would leave us in a strong position. As a result of this game, it's looking more likely that we will still be in with a shout, at least, when we host Denmark in November.

[geysir]

At least Georgia have ensured that direct qualification is more in our own hands now.

[mark12345]

We will need to score early against them and burst their bubble. The longer it stays 0-0 the more confident they become.

The only chance we have of beating them is with set piece goals. The more corners and free kicks in decent range we get, the better are our chances of finding the net.
They are a very good team in terms of constructing moves and holding possession and we will, once again, be chasing shadows for most of the night.
Three points in Tbilisi will require a top drawer performance.

[pineapple stu]

Who gets to play at home in the play off final is decided by a throw of the dice, in your dream scenario that could be Windsor Park.

Yep. Specifically from wiki -

The host of the final will be decided by a draw in November 2019 between the two semi-final pairings.

Given the semis are three days before the final, we won't know the venue for the final (if we get there of course) until three days beforehand.

[Stuttgart88]

Sure, link to the relevant posts and I'll move them into a new thread

thanks Tets. This is the thread I think
https://foot.ie/threads/235119-Wales...league+2018-19

There are lots of nerdy posts about the NL / 2020 rules.