It would be great to see more clubs in the league, but as I see it, there are four obvious issues with expansion:
1: a club needs a population base to sustain even an amateur club and infrastructure;
2: a club can’t neighbour an existing club;
3: a club can’t be in the heartland of other sports as the cost of competition would too much at start-up;
4: it would require FAI and other investment.
The 2016 census (and including Derry), shows 30 towns with over 15,000 population - I accept it’s an arbitrary figure since Cobh, Longford and Finn Harps have smaller towns. Dublin, Cork, (Derry), Limerick, Galway, Waterford, Drogheda, Dundalk, Bray, Athlone, Wexford and Sligo are top 30 LoI towns, leaving:
- North Dublin: Swords, Balbriggan, Malahide. Arguably there is room for a team but, as Sporting Fingal and (though not quite the same area) Dublin City showed, an ambitious existing club may fare better than a franchise. GAA and rugby are rivals, and does Dublin need another club?
- Kildare: Newbridge, Naas, Celbridge, Leixlip. Has the population at county level, but the Kildare County experiment ended badly. No LoI competitor in the county, but it is GAA country.
- Meath: Navan – GAA country and within Drogheda’s catchment area.
- Wicklow: Greystones - Bray’s catchment area.
- Midlands: Portlaoise, Mullingar (Tullamore is outside the top 30). Some potential in Portlaoise, but there is a strong GAA and rugby presence. Mullingar perhaps, but do many Athlone or Longford fans travel from here?
- South/South-east/South midlands: Carrigaline, Kilkenny, Carlow, Clonmel. Carrigaline is between Cork and Cobh, so it’s a non-runner. Both could go it alone, but Kilkenny and Carlow have promise as a Kilkenny-based club with scholarship link to Carlow IT, but it’s Hurling Central, and home to a defunct team. Is there appetite and goodwill for a reboot? Clonmel is a sporting town – football, GAA, cricket, rugby, rowing – which suggests either a potential fanbase or a fragmented one. Has a Limerick IT campus which could help with a scholarship link. No obvious LoI competitor.
- South-west: Ennis, Tralee. Tralee has A Championship experience (for good and ill) and an IT for scholarship links. Ennis, likewise, has a Limerick IT campus, albeit limited. Both are GAA counties. Could create an interesting Atlantic corridor from Kerry to Sligo.
- North: Letterkenny. Too close to Finn Harps who presumably draw fans from it.
So with an admittedly crude analysis, the only geographically viable areas I can see are:
North Dublin
Kildare
Portlaoise
Kilkenny-Carlow
Clonmel
Ennis
Tralee
There may be an appetite in Monaghan or for county-level teams (e.g. Mayo League) and smaller towns with a football tradition – e.g Tullamore and Castlebar– could step up, but the caveats regarding GAA dominance and proximity to existing clubs apply.
Funding is the biggie: getting a non-league ground up to standard is a luxury when so many league grounds need renovation. You could throw a million at every club and see little for it. The real funding would have to be reduced entry and running costs for clubs, increased league regional marketing and PR spend by a multiple, and new, more valuable sponsorships for clubs and competitions. There would have to be a socio-economic argument to show the benefits to each town and region of participating – level of increased economic activity, sport and education links, social amenity (especially in disadvantaged areas) – and how non-sporting state and private investment could be allocated. That's a lot of hard work and I can't see too many takers.
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