Referendum on the 8th amendment.

**jbyrne** · 24/05/2018, 2:59 PM

Originally Posted by sbgawa

No voters are as likely to not bother going to the polls as its a foregone conclusion as yes voters.

tripe

**OwlsFan** · 24/05/2018, 3:06 PM

Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

Comparing the difficult choice that some women have to make in sometimes terrible or extenuating circumstances- to a holocaust is deeply offensive. You would want to take a good long hard look at yourself.

I am voting for life. I have no problem looking at myself.

**sbgawa** · 24/05/2018, 3:47 PM

Originally Posted by jbyrne

tripe

Why is it more likely that Yes voters won't bother voting as opposed to it being equally split.

**backstothewall** · 24/05/2018, 8:53 PM

Originally Posted by sbgawa

Why is it more likely that Yes voters won't bother voting as opposed to it being equally split.

Because yes voters tend to be drawn from a younger demographic and are more likely to be female. No voters are more likely to be the opposite.

No voters will have an easier time getting to the polling station because they are more likely due to their age to be retired. With work taking up a smaller chunk of the day (on average) even if something crops up it is less likely to prevent them from getting to the polls. Yes voters have less of the day to vote in. Is something happens it is happening within a smaller window of available time to vote in. Something is also more likely to crop up for these people. Typically they have more family responsibilities and are more likely to be drawn away by other issues such as sick children, having to work late, being stuck in a traffic jam on the M50, kids football practice etc.

No matter what happens in this referendum, if you could do a count at lunchtime tomorrow it would almost certainly show No ahead at that stage of the day.

**mark12345** · 25/05/2018, 12:06 AM

Originally Posted by OwlsFan

I am voting for life. I have no problem looking at myself.

Fair play to you Owls Fan

**NeverFeltBetter** · 25/05/2018, 8:19 AM

Voted this morning in Ashtown. Place was heaving. After two months of pretending it wasn't happening everyone in my office is spontaneously talking about voting Yes.

**Kingdom** · 25/05/2018, 12:44 PM

I don't think the yes vote is going to romp home at all. The large swathe of people who don't use social media are no voters. Outside of Dublin I suspect there'll be an overwhelming majority of No votes.

the day of the poll being reliable is over. The MD of IPSOS was on the radio the other day and made reference to not really considering the undecided voters, as in previous forms of polling. I feel that most undecided voters are going to vote No. I think if you're anyway a yes voter, then you'll have decided clearly enough a long time ago. On that train of thought, if the undecided is approx. 25%, then that's a serious wedge of voter who probably will vote no.

In Crumlin this morning they were blown away with the polling at our station. They had huge number turn out before 9am.

**osarusan** · 25/05/2018, 1:22 PM

Originally Posted by Kingdom

I don't think the yes vote is going to romp home at all.

Neither do I.

Thinking back to the SSM referendum, there were 38% who voted no.

I can see many of those No voters being No voters this time too (almost all I'd imagine), but it would be naive to assume that all 62% of Yes voters then will be Yes voters now - for some people, this is simply a step too far.

On the other hand, the youth vote does seem to have been mobilised fairly well this time, as it was last time.

**NeverFeltBetter** · 25/05/2018, 2:05 PM

Turnout is looking quite large, with parts of Dublin hitting near 50% already. I can only assume this is good for Yes?

Edit: As an example, on the back of the turnout betting companies are slashing odds on Yes.

**pineapple stu** · 25/05/2018, 4:05 PM

Exit poll on boards.ie is showing 80% Yes from 1000 votes.

Obviously that's not good enough for statistical purposes as it's a relatively narrow cross-section (and could include foreign people, bots, etc), but it's interesting still.

Would have thought boards is mostly male as well, which you would expect to vote a lower Yes or even a No.

**BonnieShels** · 25/05/2018, 4:12 PM

Originally Posted by OwlsFan

I am voting for life. I have no problem looking at myself.

But only if "life" remains intact in Ireland and be damned if these women have to get a flight or ferry to Britain?

---

Everyone is entitled to their vote and choices in that regard but I just can't even quantify what it would be like to be a no voter knowing what is actually happening anyway.

Shipping the problem abroad is not an answer along with the other issues pertaining to bodily autonomy and general health. But alas...

This is as easy a yes as I'll ever give to anything. Marriage equality was a cinch, this is easier.

**NeverFeltBetter** · 25/05/2018, 9:27 PM

IT Exit Poll (4'000 surveyed outside polling places) predicts massive Yes, bigger than SSM. Yes winning all demographics bar over 65's, all geographical areas. Even rural areas it's a landslide.

**Fizzer** · 25/05/2018, 9:43 PM

Wow! I think we can say there is a genuine revolution happening in this country,our society is actually properly growing up.I never thought I would see such changes but flippin hell, if we carry on like this,then this generation will hand over the country to the next in a far far healthier state than we found it.

**NeverFeltBetter** · 25/05/2018, 10:25 PM

RTE's B&A poll is marginally higher than IT's. I'm going to retract my previous statement, with a popular majority this high every on-the-fence TD will be jumping at the proposed legislation. The rest might be wondering about their base for future GE.

**sbgawa** · 25/05/2018, 10:54 PM

This was Always a foregone conclusion just happy it's over.

**The Donie Forde** · 26/05/2018, 7:51 AM

Landslide Yes vote, by all exit poll indicators - not too far shy of 70-30.

**NeverFeltBetter** · 26/05/2018, 10:12 AM

Only Donegal on course to vote No I believe.

**nigel-harps1954** · 26/05/2018, 2:45 PM

Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter

Only Donegal on course to vote No I believe.

Donegal constituency has returned a 51%-49% in favour of No. Some parts of rural Donegal were as high as 60%-70% no. Urban Donegal voted Yes.

Ridiculously, a fair chunk of South Donegal is part of the Sligo/Leitrim constituency. That part of South Donegal returned 63.6% Yes. That would have swung a Donegal vote much closer to the yes. Only around 1,000 votes of a difference.

**The Fly** · 26/05/2018, 6:09 PM

Referendum result is 66.4% to 33.6% in favour or repeal. I don't like to compare the two, but...that's higher than the 62.07% to 37.93% split in the referendum on same-sex marriage.

I thought it would be something like 58% to 42% in favour of repeal, but there you go.

**osarusan** · 26/05/2018, 6:12 PM

I think that younger people, and people usually not engaged with politics, got involved with the SSM referendum, and perhaps a lot of them are a bit more engaged in general (don't know if election voting stats will bear that out though).

The rural-urban divide was nowhere near as pronounced as we might have expected.