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Thread: Premier Division & First Division odds 2018.

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    Reserves ToberonaTornado's Avatar
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    Premier Division & First Division odds 2018.

    As suggested on another thread.(open one)

    First division seems wide open.

    Premier not so much so.

    Division 1

    Galway 5/2
    Longford 5/1
    Shelbourne 6/1
    UCD 7/1
    Cobh8/1
    Harps 8/1
    Cabo 9/1
    Drogs 12/1
    Wexford 50/1
    Athlone 80/1
    =======================
    Premier:
    Dundalk 11/8
    Cork 6/4
    Shams 6/1
    Derry 20/1
    Waterford 25/1
    Pats 25/1
    Bray 40/1
    Sligo 50/1
    Bohs 66/1
    Lims 66/1
    ======================
    http://www.paddypower.com/football/i...and-division-1
    http://www.paddypower.com/football/i...emier-division
    Last edited by ToberonaTornado; 23/01/2018 at 7:49 AM.

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    Youth Team Bunny Kelly's Avatar
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    I know everyone is critical of the 10 team split but at least now we have a proper first division, 8 teams with 1 or 2 strong sides was dreadful at least now there as some decent matches, not that it will get any media coverage

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    Seasoned Pro Ezeikial's Avatar
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    The Premier Division betting suggests that only Rovers have little to play for, being nailed on for a Europa League spot from finishing 3rd or 4th

    Little separates Cork & Dundalk in the betting - Presidents Cup match on 11 Feb might give some more insights

    Derry / Waterford / St Pats all close in the betting. A savvy bet might be to have a punt on your preference of one of these to finish 3rd or ahead of Rovers. Unlikely to happen, but worth a look at the odds.

    The bottom four are also interesting and there is some potential value in predicting who among these has the potential for a top five finish.

    First Division is the usual lottery for those like me who don't know enough about the strengths of the teams. My hunch is that there is little value in the close odds between 7 of the 10 teams, with maybe there being some possible limited value with Drogheda at 12/1

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    The smart bet is to get some money on now on Dundalk , those odds will look good when Peak6 bring in a few strong players over the next couple of weeks.
    Rovers 6 to 1 looks good compared to Corks 6/4 if you look at the two teams post Maguire, plus we won't have 9 guys making their debuts this year in the first match.
    The next few weeks will be interesting , if Dundalk sign some "galacticos" by Irish standards youd have to be worried about how competitive it will be

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    Seasoned Pro El-Pietro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sbgawa View Post
    The smart bet is to get some money on now on Dundalk , those odds will look good when Peak6 bring in a few strong players over the next couple of weeks.
    Rovers 6 to 1 looks good compared to Corks 6/4 if you look at the two teams post Maguire, plus we won't have 9 guys making their debuts this year in the first match.
    The next few weeks will be interesting , if Dundalk sign some "galacticos" by Irish standards youd have to be worried about how competitive it will be
    I would suggest that 7 or 8 of our starting XI for the game against Pats will have been here last season. We've signed a lot of players but it mainly gives us depth and options. We will be able to make more changes from game to game but our squad is more settled than it would seem given how many changes we've made.
    Its also telling how Cork City signing players will mean we're unsettled but if Dundalk sign them they become massive favourites. Keep writing us off, it suits us.

    As things stand Dundalk have lost 3 of their starting XI from the cup final, Vemmelund, McEleney and McMillan. We have lost just two, Delaney and Dooley, and we had Dooleys replacement in the squad for the second half of last season.

    Dundalk have very clearly replaced McMillan (and Kilduff), but have they replaced Vemmelund/McEleney. McGrath and Connolly might combine to replace McEleney, but I don't think they have anyone as of yet ready to replace Vemmelund.

    Delaney will be a loss for us, but we have Aaron Barry and Danny Kane as their replacements. One who already knows the league.

    The players we have brought in are
    Peter Cherrie - competition for McNulty but not first choice
    Colm Horgan and Tobi - only one of those can realistically start, and may have to beat Stephen Beattie out to get that right back spot. Both give us a lot of depth for full back positions though.
    Aaron Barry and Danny Kane, one or both of these could start the first game either alongside Alan Bennett, or each other. Benno is class but isn't gonna start every week.
    Barry McNamee - brilliant, can't wait to see him in competitive games. Not guaranteed a first team place as Garry Buckley is one of those players who always seems to be in the team but very likely to start most games.
    Graham Cummins and Josh O'Hanlon - Cummins is currently first choice, Josh is clearly sub. We are still trying to sign a striker but most likely another backup.

    So of our 8 signings so far we could be looking at as few as 2 new starters, Barry/Kane and Cummins, or as many as 5. Horgan/Tobi, Barry, Kane, McNamee and Cummins. I think we will be closer to 2/3 though, and I think we will be much more settled than you might think, especially as most of these signings know the club or the league.
    Last edited by El-Pietro; 23/01/2018 at 10:04 AM.

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    Seasoned Pro outspoken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sbgawa View Post
    The smart bet is to get some money on now on Dundalk , those odds will look good when Peak6 bring in a few strong players over the next couple of weeks.
    Rovers 6 to 1 looks good compared to Corks 6/4 if you look at the two teams post Maguire, plus we won't have 9 guys making their debuts this year in the first match.
    The next few weeks will be interesting , if Dundalk sign some "galacticos" by Irish standards youd have to be worried about how competitive it will be
    Apparently this season will be more of a bedding in period, hard to see who they’d get in at this stage.

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    Reserves ToberonaTornado's Avatar
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    whats the usual terms(cant see it on the pp site) is it half the odds 1st or 2nd?
    Fancy Shels @ 6's

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    Quote Originally Posted by sbgawa View Post
    The next few weeks will be interesting , if Dundalk sign some "galacticos" by Irish standards youd have to be worried about how competitive it will be
    No galacticos this week anyway!

    James Rogers@jamesdundalk
    @jamesdundalk


    No transfer activity expected at Oriel Park this week but Dundalk manager Stephen Kenny says he is hopeful of at least one new arrival in the next fortnight
    https://twitter.com/jamesdundalk/sta...51724903555072

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    Quote Originally Posted by El-Pietro View Post
    I would suggest that 7 or 8 of our starting XI for the game against Pats will have been here last season. We've signed a lot of players but it mainly gives us depth and options. We will be able to make more changes from game to game but our squad is more settled than it would seem given how many changes we've made.
    Its also telling how Cork City signing players will mean we're unsettled but if Dundalk sign them they become massive favourites. Keep writing us off, it suits us.

    .
    Theres a glaring maguire shaped hole in your team.
    Once he left last season you were mediocre at best.
    Thats probably why the odds are on dundalk, and not the league & cup champions
    League Specialists.

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    First Team patrickccfc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by placid casual View Post
    Theres a glaring maguire shaped hole in your team.
    Once he left last season you were mediocre at best.
    Thats probably why the odds are on dundalk, and not the league & cup champions
    Dundalk also have a glaring Mceleney and McMillan shaped hole. So both teams have lost very influential players. We lost maguire half way through the season but never replaced him and therefore struggled the final third of the season. Both teams have recruited well I think so it's just a matter of how quickly the new players gel.

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    First Team jinxy lilywhite's Avatar
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    Don't know what you mean lads. Baby steps for dundalk this season. Rovers league to lose for bradser

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    Lol prince's and paupers before you even sign your galacticos

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    International Prospect osarusan's Avatar
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    What are the relegation odds?

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    Not Entirely Sure nigel-harps1954's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by osarusan View Post
    What are the relegation odds?
    Odds on that someone will get relegated.

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    Biased against YOUR club pineapple stu's Avatar
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    That's a rarity for the league.

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    Not Entirely Sure nigel-harps1954's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple stu View Post
    That's a rarity for the league.
    Relegated/demoted/going bust. It all falls into a similar category.

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    Quote Originally Posted by osarusan View Post
    What are the relegation odds?

    Turn the odds for winning the league on their head.

    So its Limerick 11/8 Bohs at 6/4 Sligo 6/1 etc


    Obviously that's not quite scientific

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToberonaTornado View Post
    Premier:
    Dundalk 11/8
    Cork 6/4
    Rovers 6/1
    Derry 20/1
    Waterford 25/1
    Pats 25/1
    Bray 40/1
    Sligo 50/1
    Bohs 66/1
    The team that must not be named 66/1
    Just fixed some small errors you had

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    Quote Originally Posted by sbgawa View Post
    Turn the odds for winning the league on their head.

    So its Limerick 11/8 Bohs at 6/4 Sligo 6/1 etc


    Obviously that's not quite scientific
    Not one bit scientific, if Powers were to put up a book for last place true you would expect them to invert the winners book, but consider this, Powers give us a 2% chance, and Bohs a 1.5% of winning the league, while they give ye a 14% and Cork a 39% chance (albeit in an overound book) meaning there would be a few takers for your 6/1 about us for last place.
    If I have 10 minutes tomorrow I will price it up.

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    First Team dong's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bunny Kelly View Post
    I know everyone is critical of the 10 team split but at least now we have a proper first division, 8 teams with 1 or 2 strong sides was dreadful at least now there as some decent matches, not that it will get any media coverage
    Its not so much the number of teams but the constant tinkering that bugs me.

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