Historically, I would say it is. Only once in a play off have we qualified after playing at home in the first leg (2002), and in 1997 and 1999 we failed to qualify after a home play off. In 2011 and 2015 we qualified after playing away from home first. There's an argument that the qualifying group for the 1966 world cup was effectively a play off after Syria pulled out, leaving ourselves and Spain as the only teams. Both sides won their home games, leading to a one off game in Paris that Spain won.
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