NI Westminster Election 2017

[TheBoss]

Is it just me or does Theresa May actually want to win this election. She was not in favour of leaving the European Union and so perhaps wants Labour to do the messy negotiations rather than her.

[DannyInvincible]

Is it just me or does Theresa May actually want to win this election. She was not in favour of leaving the European Union and so perhaps wants Labour to do the messy negotiations rather than her.

The Brexit negotiations will certainly be a poisoned chalice and I've encountered this conspiracy theory elsewhere, but surely a party wouldn't go as far as throwing an election? Would they?

An interesting video here: https://www.facebook.com/EvolvePolit...2367818348490/

It features Tory MP Amber Rudd at a hustings in her constituency of Hastings and Rye having the independent candidate's speech shut down as he spoke about Rudd's involvement in selling weapons to Saudi Arabia. She passed a note to the chair who eventually got up and took the microphone off the candidate. Astonishing.

[backstothewall]

The UDA endorsed Nigel Dodds in North Belfast today. Dodds has been asked if he rejects the endorsement and, oddly, hasn't said yes.

Then he went on the UTV leaders debate in place of Arlene Foster.

All in all the DUP are behaving in exactly the manner I would expect them too if they thought Dodds was very close to losing his seat. Not being on the debate makes Foster look terribly weak, and the UDA thing will likely cost them a few thousand votes. The only way it makes sense to do that is if a few hundred UDA votes in North Belfast will ultimately be worth more than a few thousand votes across the north.

[BonnieShels]

This is a great read.

https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2016...undary-review/

[CraftyToePoke]

Exit polls looking hilarious, can it be.

[Stuttgart88]

Oh what a night....

[osarusan]

DUP potential/likely kingmakers FFS.

[Mr A]

There are times you look at Northern Ireland and feel they deserve every misfortune that befalls them.

[backstothewall]

DUP potential/likely kingmakers FFS.

I wouldn't worry about it

[BonnieShels]

It's gonna be gas.

[backstothewall]

It's going to be a hell of a couple of months

[DannyInvincible]

It's amusing seeing the DUP being referred to as "the Irish DUP" in the British and international media. Bet they're loving that!

More seriously though, I hope they're finding the extra scrutiny and exposure to a more widespread audience uncomfortable. It's certainly demonstrating the scale of the chasm between the British values of most Britons and the regressive values of northern unionism.

If the DUP can influence/govern via direct rule, what then is the incentive for them to work towards re-establishing the devolved institutions at Stormont and involve others who won't be as congenial to their wishes as their new Tory partners in Westminster?

Also, surely the DUP's influence/presence in government at Westminster is incompatible with the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement. I don't regard the British government as a neutral player when it comes to northern affairs anyway, but they have at least claimed to be a neutral "broker" or "mediator" in recent decades. Now that the DUP will have a role in the next UK government, however, it will make a total mockery of any such notions of governmental neutrality. What safeguards might be put in place to protect the rights and interests of the nationalist community? What if Jeffrey Donaldson was to become secretary of state for the north, for example?

Interestingly, the DUP allege that they didn't actually promise an Irish language act at St. Andrew's (so they say there's no duty on them to facilitate it) and claim that it was actually the British government that promised it. The St. Andrew's Agreement stated:

"The Government will introduce an Irish Language Act reflecting on the experience of Wales and Ireland and work with the incoming Executive to enhance and protect the development of the Irish language."

If the DUP are now going to form part of or play a role in the next British government, however, won't they be obliged to deliver on that promise? Maybe they're unwittingly putting themselves in a bit of a bind on that front...

The DUP also repeatedly claim to want a "frictionless border" in Ireland, but they were recklessly pro-Brexit and also reject the prospect of special status. One of their demands to the Tories - in return for offering the support of their ten MPs - is that the north will not be granted any special status that differentiates it from Britain's post-EU status. If you want the border to be "frictionless", some form of special status will be a prerequisite, however, so their stated wishes don't quite add up.

[backstothewall]

"I told her that there were a number of things that count to me more than the party. One of them is country, one of the others is LGBTI rights.
I asked for a categoric assurance that if any deal or scoping deal was done with the DUP, there would be absolutely no rescission of LGBTI rights in the rest of the UK, in Great Britain, and that we would use any influence that we had to advance LGBTI rights in Northern Ireland."

If I was labour i would be terribly worried about Ruth Davidson as Tory leader.

I'd sleep soundly in my bed facing David Davies or Boris on the other hand

[BonnieShels]

I appreciate how good she is in the grand scheme. But she's still a unionist. And she's still a Tory.

[backstothewall]

The deal is done so.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40236152

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords...

[CraftyToePoke]

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords...

Go on, expand on that. Please. You are usually very accurately and entertainingly ahead of the curve on here on these developments.

As an aside, as one who lives in England, it has been nothing short of repeatedly f**king hilarious these last two days watching the horror dawn on people of what DUP actually means. (& not the letters either)

[DannyInvincible]

The deal is done so.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40236152

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords...

No deal just yet. Yesterday's announcement was made by Downing Street in haste. Maybe they were eager to get things wrapped up before the DUP's day of rest today... Anyhow, negotiations are to continue through to next week.

The whole thing just goes to show how utterly desperate and craven May is. Word is that she'd prefer a formal coalition - obviously to secure her position more firmly - rather than a less formal "confidence and supply" arrangement, but, naturally, other Tories aren't so keen on forming a coalition with an outfit like the DUP. (Imagine climate-change denier Sammy Wilson as environment secretary!) No doubt, there are moves against May underway from within her own party. Boris Johnson is flat-out denying that he has any designs on taking over - he's probably overcompensating - so my money would be on him doing a Brutus and stabbing his leader in the back.

I'm sure the EU's Brexit negotiators are keeping a close eye on all this chaos and are finding developments more amusing than intimidating. They probably can't wait to get stuck in themselves.

Meanwhile, latest polling indicates that if another election was called, Labour would be likely to win relatively comfortably: https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...74408224862210

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45% (+5)
CON: 39% (-3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 3% (+1)

(via @Survation / 10 Jun)
Chgs. w/ GE2017

Corbyn still thinks there's a chance he could form a government regardless, based on the apparent precedent of 1974: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7783336.html

On 28 February 1974, Heath lost [the general election], but he messed around for a few days trying to cobble together a deal with the Liberal Party to stay in power. Like Theresa May, Heath was a stubborn man who liked the job. In the meantime the Labour leader, a wily old fox, simply ruled out any deals at all with other parties and sat and waited for Heath's efforts to collapse. They duly did.

Wilson then formed a minority government, and was careful to only introduce measures that wouldn’t immediately attract automatic and rabid opposition from the Tory benches. For their part, the Conservatives and the liberals were very unwilling to inflict another election on the public only a few weeks later. So Heath ordered his MPs to abstain, and Labour got their Budget through.

This is interesting as it shows how incompatible the Tories and DUP might prove to be based on their previous voting records: https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/10...gically-close/

Any pact will surely prove to be very fragile.

[CraftyToePoke]

Enda Kenny weighing in with a tweet that he has reminded May of her duty to the GFA and particularly now there is zero Nationalist voice in Westminster.

[DannyInvincible]

Crypto-Tory Peter Mandelson has been appealing to people (via a piece in the bloody Daily Mail!) to get behind Theresa May in the "national interest": http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...-stand-PM.html

I believe if she shows flexibility, most of the country will back her.

It would be churlish for people like me and other Remainers not to give her political backing.

There are Labour MPs who want to work in the national interest and will support her if she does the right thing for the country.

Mainstream Labour MPs, who worry about the impact of the continuing Corbyn revolution on centrist voters, should be prepared to stand by the wounded PM, and likewise she should welcome their approach in the national interest.

You couldn't make it up.

[osarusan]

I'd imagine Corbyn would be content in opposition for the time being, as the Tories stumble along through Brexit negotiations for a while, with increasing public astonishment at what the DUP is, probably a leadership change at some point.

The next few months are going to be nothing but negative headlines for the government, so Labour will be hoping to make hay...as long as they can keep their internal and grassroots energy and momentum going.