Aye, but then it's one of many marginal factors. Another is that if Prod pensioners vote (often by post), Taig youngsters may have had to move away from NI for work. So, short term at least, Unionist vote share rises in many rural western areas.Originally Posted by BttW
The Lucid Talk poll suggests that 'others' (ie maverick Nationalists and Nationalists, rump Socialists and dope smokers, single-issue indeps) will manage only 0.7%. That must be an understatement, it was 4.5% last year.
UKIP show at 1% down from 1.5%, although contesting only ONE seat. They'll get about 0.3% but their intending voters still have plenty of choice
Michelle Gildernew tried that, but alas the 'Summertime Blues' principle applies: primary school children don't have a vote
Last edited by Gather round; 02/03/2017 at 9:25 AM.
Well I would have thought as the largest political party in Ireland that SF would not be keen on wasting resources on non-voters. They may have cash but seems it would be akin to burning it. Best to just buy some pellets instead and wait for the kids to mature along with the rest of the electorate.
On a side note, Sammy Wilson was putting up posters in Larne as late as yesterday evening. Wasn't knocking on doors in Baylands mind you. It's almost like he didn't want confrontation.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
As more likely to facilitate the 'Orange' vote?
Try to stay 'classy'?
The first sentence doesn't make any sense even for you and no point to the Krappers anymore, thanks to Brexit. That the North didn't want!The Lucid Talk poll suggests that 'others' (ie maverick Nationalists and Nationalists, rump Socialists and dope smokers, single-issue indeps) will manage only 0.7%. That must be an understatement, it was 4.5% last year.
UKIP show at 1% down from 1.5%, although contesting only ONE seat. They'll get about 0.3% but their intending voters still have plenty of choice
When are we likely to know ?
Is there a link for the emerging vote count / updates which you fine chaps would recommend ?
SF, like all parties, waste money on their non-voters. By standing in no-hope or low turnout areas and so on. And as a large party they feel they have to stand everywhere.
By forcing this election they are also wilfully wasting four years of income from the MLAs who'll lose their seats, plus the greater costs if Direct Rule resumes and the successful candidates get a pay cut too
Base and potential floating voters are worth 'confronting'. Plenty of other residents aren't.On a side note, Sammy Wilson was putting up posters in Larne as late as yesterday evening. Wasn't knocking on doors in Baylands mind you. It's almost like he didn't want confrontation
I used to enjoy the Tower Road swimming pool as a kid.
CTP: last counts sometime on Saturday pm perhaps? UTV website worth a look
Last edited by Gather round; 02/03/2017 at 11:16 AM.
Counting doesn't start til tomorrow. Morning Ireland will have an Exit Poll at 7am tomorrow they said this morning.
Everything will be on BBC, UTV and RTÉ as it happens tomorrow.
---
So you're saying SF should have kept their powder dry and ignored Foster's allegedly corrupt ways? If only there was some sort of precedent of a FM standing aside while an investigation was done into their business dealings or decisions...SF, like all parties, waste money on their non-voters. By standing in no-hope or low turnout areas and so on. And as a large party they feel they have to stand everywhere.
By forcing this election they are also wilfully wasting four years of income from the MLAs who'll lose their seats, plus the greater costs if Direct Rule resumes and the successful candidates get a pay cut too
Base and potential floating voters are worth 'confronting'. Plenty of other residents aren't.
I used to enjoy the Tower Road swimming pool as a kid.
This election was caused by the DUP and no one else. SF pulled the trigger. The Duppers loaded up the gun and bought the bullets. That was usually how it went anyway. "...plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose..."
How do you identify a base and potential floating voter in Larne? Eye measurement? Marching gait?
Last edited by BonnieShels; 02/03/2017 at 11:54 AM.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
Yes, they should not have forced the election even when Foster refused to resign or step aside. Given NI's peculiar politics (particularly, that there are no floating votes between Nationalism and Unionism), its result is only significant at the margins. There will be a lot more Unionists than Nationalists, a lot more SF and DUP than UUP and SDLP, and an excellent vote for the non-aligned parties will still only be about 16%.And we haven't had the Inquiry which the DUP accepted, albeit reluctantly.
What can SF achieve? Largest party has some symbolic value, but they already managed that in Euros 2014. Anyway pundits seem to agree they'd need a big lead in vote share to get one more seat than the DUP.
Other supposedly red line issues- the language barely anybody speaks, the historic prosecutions paramilitary-linked parties don't really want, the EU that SF were pretty cold to until quite recently. OK, and marriage/ abortion etc. Were they worth the cost of an election if they're unlikely to be enacted even after it? SF in the short to medium term need Devolution in NI, both in principle- the alternative is a Brit governor and emasculated local govt- and in practice (to make being a politician worthwhile as a job, basically).
I don't know why SF acted as they did. Because it's so muddled, they may not know themselves.
By canvassing, like anywhere else. Aren't you the guy who knows the area? Spare us the playing dumb, Wolfman's already here for that.How do you identify a base and potential floating voter in Larne? Eye measurement? Marching gait?
Last edited by Gather round; 02/03/2017 at 12:41 PM.
Talking of Larne Catholics, I met some on the bus down Divis Street the other day:
You'd definitely spill your curried yogurt on that bus.
Last edited by BonnieShels; 02/03/2017 at 3:55 PM.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
I disagree. The DUP are an affront to normalisation. Whatever about SF's past Foster's rhetoric the last few months would not have looked out of place if it was Big Ian spouting it back in the day. It even got a rebuke from Junior as a result.
The result of this election should temper any of the extra bounce that the DUP got last year which resulted in Foster getting too big for her boots.Given NI's peculiar politics (particularly, that there are no floating votes between Nationalism and Unionism), its result is only significant at the margins. There will be a lot more Unionists than Nationalists, a lot more SF and DUP than UUP and SDLP, and an excellent vote for the non-aligned parties will still only be about 16%.
The problem with the lack of inquiry would be perhaps because there's no assembly... But I'm sure both will be resolved... perhaps.And we haven't had the Inquiry which the DUP accepted, albeit reluctantly.
Massive symbolic value. Don't play it down like it wouldn't be significant.What can SF achieve? Largest party has some symbolic value, but they already managed that in Euros 2014.
The pundits would be right alright.Anyway pundits seem to agree they'd need a big lead in vote share to get one more seat than the DUP.
My reading is that the prospect of direct rule is something that SF relish especially now it's a Tory govt who is so hell-bent on destroying the UK. It could be a boon to turning soft unionists. As it is in Scotland...Other supposedly red line issues- the language barely anybody speaks, the historic prosecutions paramilitary-linked parties don't really want, the EU that SF were pretty cold to until quite recently. OK, and marriage/ abortion etc. Were they worth the cost of an election if they're unlikely to be enacted even after it? SF in the short to medium term need Devolution in NI, both in principle- the alternative is a Brit governor and emasculated local govt- and in practice (to make being a politician worthwhile as a job, basically).
One thing I would never lay at the door of SF is the accusation that they are muddled.I don't know why SF acted as they did. Because it's so muddled, they may not know themselves.
It's a machine, and a machine that rarely makes mistakes.
Why would you get so sensitive? Playful sectarian gibes are gas. Admittedly until someone loses an eye...By canvassing, like anywhere else. Aren't you the guy who knows the area? Spare us the playing dumb, Wolfman's already here for that.
As it happens the local MP who was recruited to stick up posters in the area didn't seem to want to canvass anyone.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
Excuse me. You're the rotund fool churning out the same repetitive circular waffle, worth about as much in analysis of the North as a 9 punt note.
And stick to insulting Nationalist voters. Not.
There's not likely to be much in the way of significant news tonight as counting doesn't start until morning (unless there'll be exit polls to be reported). 'The View' on BBC 1 at 10:40PM tonight will definitely have discussion regardless: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08gbxhm
Radio coverage of counting and results starts at noon tomorrow on Radio Ulster whilst televised coverage will commence on BBC 1 at 1:30PM.
In the meantime, keeping an eye on Slugger O'Toole for updates and analysis might be worthwhile: http://sluggerotoole.com/2017/03/02/...n-5pm-and-9pm/
Here's Slugger's Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/sluggerpolitics/?fref=ts
And the Slugger Twitter: https://twitter.com/SluggerOToole
They're mostly just relaying turn-out figures and updates at the minute. Turn-out thus far is thought to be up on May's turn-out.
You'll also get election-related updates live on Twitter by keeping an eye on the "#ae17" hashtag: https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&q=%23ae17&src=typd
Mark Devenport on 'The View' was saying that turn-out is thought to have been over 80 per cent at some polling stations.
It was about 62 per cent at my own station - ballot box 60 at St. Paul's Primary School in Derry - by 9PM this evening: https://twitter.com/LeonaONeill1/sta...13516621533184
Pretty high.
Revised predictions now I've seen some turnout figures
Antrim, East DUP 2, UU 2, AP 1;
Antrim, North DUP 2, SF 1, TUV 1, UU 1;
Antrim, South DUP 2, UU 1, SF 1, AP 1;
Belfast East DUP 2, AP 2, UU 1;
Belfast North DUP 2, SF 2, SDLP 1;
Belfast South DUP 1, SDLP 1, AP 1, SF 1, Green 1;
Belfast West SF 4, PbP 1;
Derry, East DUP 2, SF 2, UU 1;
Down, North DUP 2, AP 1, UU 1, Green 1;
Down, South SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1;
Fermanagh & South Tyrone SF 3, DUP 2;
Foyle SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1;
Lagan Valley DUP 2, UU 2, AP 1;
Mid Ulster SF 2, SDLP 1, UU 1, DUP 1;
Newry & Armagh SF 3, SDLP 1, UU 1;
Strangford DUP 2, UU 2, AP 1;
Upper Bann DUP 1, UU 2, SF 2;
West Tyrone SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1;
Last edited by backstothewall; 02/03/2017 at 10:21 PM.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
Well now, that would be something to see unfold over the coming couple of days.
In other news, on the BBC news website tonight, the NI election finally gets a mention after 27 other topics are covered and if you are willing to scroll down a good long way.
I have neither defended the DUP nor referred SF's past beyond saying it's a reason for the SDLP's continued existence. I'm saying the election was unnecessary and wasteful. Most supporters of every party bar SF seem to agree.
More than that surely? DUP will lose vote share to other Unionist parties, Unionism will be down overall, Foster will likely walk after an (in)decent interval. A general problem is most/ all NI hacks getting carried away. They think that because Hume was an international statesman, they can be too.The result of this election should temper any of the extra bounce that the DUP got last year which resulted in Foster getting too big for her boots
If anything I'm talking it up. If I thought it was insignificant I wouldn't have mentioned.Massive symbolic value. Don't play it down like it wouldn't be significant
I can see the advantages to SF, as I said I think the disadvantages outweigh.My reading is that the prospect of direct rule is something that SF relish especially now it's a Tory govt who is so hell-bent on destroying the UK. It could be a boon to turning soft unionists. As it is in Scotland..
Aye, it's an election machine. That loses every election. Whose vote share has fallen in each of the last three .They make mistakes like everyone else, why do think them above criticism?One thing I would never lay at the door of SF is the accusation that they are muddled. It's a machine, and a machine that rarely makes mistakes
I'm a (peace) wallflower...Why would you get so sensitive?
NI isn't important to the British Tories and thus the BBC.
I had to get Excel out for that:
DUP: 26
SF: 28
UUP: 15
SDLP: 9
AP: 8
PBP: 1
GP: 2
TUV: 1
---
Jaysus
---
80% turnout in Mid-Ulster according to RTÉ
https://twitter.com/BarryLenihan/sta...02292379627520
Last edited by BonnieShels; 03/03/2017 at 9:19 AM.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
Total Unionist vote in both Down South and Newry Armagh was over 30% last year, ie close to two quotas. It would be a shock if the Nat turnout increased enough to change that to one seat each?
Posting Permissions
Quote
Bookmarks