I see FIFA have announced the play-offs will be seeded: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017...-cup-play-off/
I don't think that would benefit us. Just doing a quick scan through the FIFA rankings of the current second-placed teams (in order to give a very rough guide, as we still don't know for certain who'll finish as runners-up) and I can see that Portugal (6th), Italy (12th), Sweden (19th), Iceland (20th), Slovakia (22nd) and NI (23rd) would all be ranked ahead of us. We're ranked 29th at the minute. Obviously, only the four highest-ranked teams out of the eight play-off qualifiers will be seeded.
(Would it be worth a mod separating the posts relating to runners-up and the play-offs into a "play-off permutations" thread or something like that, as I'm sure there'll be plenty of discussion on that front as a consequence of last night's result?)
We could qualify for the play-offs with a draw against Wales in theory, so long as we finished ahead of Wales in second place, so they'd have to drop points in Georgia. I looked at some ways in which I think we could potentially get into the play-offs with a draw against Wales (leaving us on 11 points in the table ranking runners-up) here: http://foot.ie/threads/225065-Republ...=1#post1935250
I think it'd be a miracle if we managed to get to the play-offs with a draw in Cardiff.
Zidane would prefer if Bale doesn't play for Wales - http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...-36187225.html
Originally Posted by Zinedine Zidane
Not as thorough as Danny's work on the various permutations, but Dan McDonnell gives a handy summary of what is realistically required from the other groups should we manage to get the six points needed - http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...-36187224.html
If the already-qualified Belgium stop hosts Bosnia from winning their penultimate qualifier next Saturday and Greece drop points to neighbours Cyprus on the same evening, then a six-point finish for Ireland would definitely be enough to avoid a cruel fate.So, basically, we should know by Saturday night if we're screwed or not. If Slovakia get a result in Scotland and Greece win in Cyprus, the game is pretty much up. Those two things, in particular, are very likely to happen.If that fails, the other group of realistic interest is Group F which has been dominated by England. What Ireland need there is Gareth Southgate's men to defeat Slovenia on Thursday. At the same time, the key match is in Glasgow where a home success for Scotland against Slovakia is essential. The hope would be that Scotland follow that up by failing to win in Slovenia on the Sunday.
Group F
Thursday
England v Slovenia (19:45) - England win needed
Scotland v Slovakia (19:45) - Scotland win needed
Sunday
Slovakia v Malta (17:00)
Slovenia v Scotland (17:00) - Slovenia to get something needed (in addition to the above)
OR
Group H
Saturday
Bosnia-Herzigovina v Belgium (17:00) - Belgium win needed
Cyprus v Greece (19:45) - Cyprus to get something needed
Tuesday
Estonia v Bosnia-Herzigovina (19:45) - Estonia to get something possibly needed
Greece v Gibraltar (19:45)
Last edited by DeLorean; 02/10/2017 at 8:48 AM.
I know I'm in denial of our fate, but Cyprus's home form is actually quite good, they have only lost to Belgium
He nearly did in the game at the Aviva. A tackle on O'Shea in the penalty area a few minutes before Coleman's injury could have easily been a red
It looks like The Independent were twisting Zidane's words above to create more of a stir. - https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soc...roup-1.3241068
"He will travel with his international team,” Zidane explained to reporters in Spain.
“He could have played with us but I preferred to leave him out as he had a small complaint.
“He’s fine. After so many games at the start of the season and four months of injury, he was suffering after the game in Dortmund.
“He strained his hamstring but in the end it’s nothing. It’s not an injury. I’ve spoken to him and the doctors.”
It's a win win situation for us, even if he plays he'll get himself sent off.
RTÉ have also compiled an outline of possible permutations that may allow us to qualify for the play-offs: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017...-playoff-spot/
The author didn't go into group I - Iceland and Turkey's group - in great detail, but I looked at how that group could potentially work in our favour here: http://foot.ie/threads/225065-Republ...=1#post1935250Originally Posted by Conor Neville
Of course, any chance we might have through other results is dependent on us doing the business and finishing second in our group first.
Bale ruled out for Wales' set of qualifying fixtures.
I think if Wales fail to win in Tbilisi they can only get to a max of 12 points by beating us which means they could be out of contention by the time we play them.
Yes / No / maybe?
Yeah, that's correct. They probably wouldn't be mathematically out of contention but would be hoping for a miracle along the lines of Gibraltar getting a result against Greece or Malta against Slovakia, I would think.
We might be better off playing a Wales team not just out to stifle us though. Hard to know, and we must beat Moldova first of course.
The Indo were just more up to date with information.
The IT's quote from Zidane came from a saturday pre-match (Espanyol) interview where he played down Bale's strain.
The Indo's quote of Zidane urging caution came from a post match interview
Speaking after against Espanyol, Zidane urged the Dragons to handle the 28-year-old's injury problem with care.
"Gareth will go with his national team," he told reporters. "He has not played, but as he still has a bit of an issue and we would prefer him not to play."
Ah, fair enough. I stand corrected.
NI have an impressive GD of +7 against the relevant teams, conceding only twice (both against Germany). Our GD is zero against the relevant teams so if we pick up the six points needed, it will increase to a minimum of +1. So we need NI to lose both games and by an aggregate of -7 for this to be a runner. Germany will need to do the bulk of the work here you would think, it's highly far-fetched but they have been known to pull the occasional 6-1, or even 7-1 victory out of the bag!
sorry if already covered, if we beat Moldova and Draw against Wales
What do we need in ( I assume Group H) to happen to give us a chance of a play off .. if any?
this is of course is wales don't beat Georgia
Last edited by Diggs246; 03/10/2017 at 3:25 PM.
that would put us on 11 points with +1 GD so i think we need greece to lose in cyprus by either more than 2 goals (they are +3 GD currently in the 2nd place race) or by 2 goals and we draw at least 2-2 with wales, and bosnia to only pick up 1 more point from their last two games (home to belgium, away to estonia). and of course wales to fail to beat georgia.
Last edited by zero; 03/10/2017 at 4:29 PM.
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