LOI Fixtures 16/9 - 20/9

**El-Pietro** · 19/09/2016, 11:24 PM

Its not our league to lose at all. We effectively need to win 9 straight games, including one against Dundalk and hope Dundalk drop points in one other game. If they draw that game we need to find 6 more goals than Dundalk do between now and the end of the season.

We have a fighting chance but any talk of us being favourites is silly. Mind games aren't likely to work here as the players won't be reading this.

**MattB11** · 19/09/2016, 11:52 PM

Looked soft as heck from the stand during the game, can see why it was awarded from TV angle though, that said the incompetent tit with the whistle would probably of waved play on had it happened in the other box

**Yossarian** · 20/09/2016, 7:38 AM

I haven't seen the highlights so my opinion is completely uninformed, but seriously another soft pen for Cork, Stephen Kenny is right!
In all seriousness though, Cork are doing what they need to do to keep in there and it makes our two games this week must win. Unlike some other Dundalk fans I don't buy this talk of the league being Corks to lose. We are in the driving seat and while it's going to be a tough last 6 weeks of the league I think we will still have enough to see it out. Obviously a lot will depend on when the game between us and Cork is played and how that goes but I'm still confident we will win the league.

**sbgawa** · 20/09/2016, 7:50 AM

Originally Posted by Yossarian

I haven't seen the highlights so my opinion is completely uninformed, but seriously another soft pen for Cork, Stephen Kenny is right!
In all seriousness though, Cork are doing what they need to do to keep in there and it makes our two games this week must win. Unlike some other Dundalk fans I don't buy this talk of the league being Corks to lose. We are in the driving seat and while it's going to be a tough last 6 weeks of the league I think we will still have enough to see it out. Obviously a lot will depend on when the game between us and Cork is played and how that goes but I'm still confident we will win the league.

Completely agree, Dundalk have a far bigger chance to win the league than Cork....In terms of Europa league distraction they have TWO games to play before the league ends, which while I am sure Stephen Kenny will argue is something akin to the miracle of the loaves and fishes would not exactly be a miracle.
Would the people who think its Corks to lose swap positions with them?? don't think so..

Of course after we go to Oriel park tonight and win : ) the league will be right open

**Real ale Madrid** · 20/09/2016, 8:11 AM

Originally Posted by El-Pietro

Mind games aren't likely to work here as the players won't be reading this.

**Ezeikial** · 20/09/2016, 8:33 AM

Dundalk are the clear favourites although the week ahead will crystalise a lot.

Dundalk 3/10
Cork 9/4

are current bookie odds for the league

**White Horse** · 20/09/2016, 8:33 AM

Originally Posted by El-Pietro

Its not our league to lose at all. We effectively need to win 9 straight games, including one against Dundalk and hope Dundalk drop points in one other game. If they draw that game we need to find 6 more goals than Dundalk do between now and the end of the season.

We have a fighting chance but any talk of us being favourites is silly. Mind games aren't likely to work here as the players won't be reading this.

A month ago, I would have said that Cork were in the driving seat.

However, in that month Dundalk took maximum points from three away games in a row; Wexford, Bohs, and Sligo. That is tough going, especially when played in a congested fixture schedule between big European games.

The brittleness and defensive uncertainty of defeats against Bray and Galway a month earlier were nowhere to be seen.

**Ezeikial** · 20/09/2016, 8:35 AM

Originally Posted by sbgawa

Of course after we go to Oriel park tonight and win : ) the league will be right open

A sign of the times is that you can get over 10/1 on Rovers tonight

**pineapple stu** · 20/09/2016, 8:41 AM

Other important factor in the title is that though Dundalk and Cork have played the same number of games (24), Dundalk have played three fewer home games and Cork have played three fewer away games. So Cork have a load more away games to catch up on.

**Real ale Madrid** · 20/09/2016, 9:04 AM

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Other important factor in the title is that though Dundalk and Cork have played the same number of games (24), Dundalk have played three fewer home games and Cork have played three fewer away games. So Cork have a load more away games to catch up on.

We have 9 games left 5 away, 4 at home - we are down for an extra home game this year.
Dundalk have 6 home and 3 away although I'm not sure their home form is any better than their away form anyway, must be something to do with that pitch of theirs. To be fair that doesn't get much discussion on here.

**pineapple stu** · 20/09/2016, 9:15 AM

The daft home/away imbalance means the difference doesn't stand out as much as I thought it would, but still, every little counts I guess.

Dundalk have lost three away games in the league and just one home game. I'm sure they'll be happy enough to have a run of home games to try take the title.

**Real ale Madrid** · 20/09/2016, 9:17 AM

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

The daft home/away imbalance means the difference doesn't stand out as much as I thought it would, but still, every little counts I guess.

When everything is added up at the end - could it be the difference?

**pineapple stu** · 20/09/2016, 9:19 AM

I meant it means the different right now doesn't stand out as much.

If each team had to play, say, 16 home and away games, Dundalk would have 6 home games and 2 aways left, while Cork would have 3 home games and 5 away games. That's a big difference.

Adding an extra away game to Dundalk and an extra home game to Cork closes that gap slightly.

**Ezeikial** · 20/09/2016, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

Dundalk have 6 home and 3 away although I'm not sure their home form is any better than their away form anyway

Here ya go -

Home - 25 Points from 10 matches = 2.5 average
Away - 33 Points from 14 matches = 2.36 average

**sbgawa** · 20/09/2016, 10:30 AM

Originally Posted by Ezeikial

A sign of the times is that you can get over 10/1 on Rovers tonight

I remember reading a study that if you backed every team that had odds of 7/2 or greater to win an away match in the EPL (based on actual results over a 4 or 5 year period) you would be a net winner due to the odd 8 or 9 to one winner (UTD lose at home etc).
Wonder how a similar study on our league would work ?? Longford win at Harps the other night must have been longish odds....

**Real ale Madrid** · 20/09/2016, 10:34 AM

Originally Posted by Ezeikial

Here ya go -

Home - 25 Points from 10 matches = 2.5 average
Away - 33 Points from 14 matches = 2.36 average

Negligible surely. Dundalk's away form is incredible.

**Real ale Madrid** · 20/09/2016, 10:34 AM

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

I meant it means the different right now doesn't stand out as much.

If each team had to play, say, 16 home and away games, Dundalk would have 6 home games and 2 aways left, while Cork would have 3 home games and 5 away games. That's a big difference.

Adding an extra away game to Dundalk and an extra home game to Cork closes that gap slightly.

Ah I know I was just speculating that the extra home game might be the difference come the end.

**oriel** · 20/09/2016, 11:45 AM

I also don't get this 'it's Cork's title to lose' to be in that position you would need to ahead on points for starters then probably have a game less played with only a few remaining.

Cork have been impressive with the last two wins, last night could have been tricky but reducing Dundalk's lead from 10 to 4 points took a bit of bottle.

Similarly these are an important two games for Dundalk starting tonight v Rovers. Cork are definitely keeping the pressure on and that's a good thing.