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Thread: Brexit - The End of the United Kingdom?

  1. #321
    Seasoned Pro peadar1987's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid View Post
    My Prediction:

    1. May wins No confidence motion

    2. Labour / SNP bring a no confidence motion against the Government - it is defeated.

    3. Brexit Deal is brought before Parliament and despite 1. & 2. it is defeated.

    4. Utter dysfunction.

    The only thing that will save a hard Brexit at this stage is a delay to Article 50 and a people's vote imo. Otherwise it is WTO tariffs for the UK and God knows what for the border.
    But blue passports!

  2. #322
    Seasoned Pro ifk101's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid View Post
    The only thing that will save a hard Brexit at this stage is a delay to Article 50 and a people's vote imo. Otherwise it is WTO tariffs for the UK and God knows what for the border.
    In the scenario of a no-deal Brexit, did not the UK government give commitments to proceed to phase two of the Brexit negotiations that ruled out a border in the absence of a deal? And in the absence of a deal, this effectively meant continued alignment to the EU? I don't see how it is possible for the UK to break cleanly away from the EU and to adhere to past agreements/ commitments made.

  3. #323
    Seasoned Pro peadar1987's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ifk101 View Post
    In the scenario of a no-deal Brexit, did not the UK government give commitments to proceed to phase two of the Brexit negotiations that ruled out a border in the absence of a deal? And in the absence of a deal, this effectively meant continued alignment to the EU? I don't see how it is possible for the UK to break cleanly away from the EU and to adhere to past agreements/ commitments made.
    The whole thing is a shambles. They've made ironclad commitments that are mutually incompatible. And the loudest voices over here seem to be swinging towards a no deal that closes the borders completely and sinks the country on a point of principle.

  4. #324
    International Prospect osarusan's Avatar
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    May survives a vote of no confidence, pledges to step down before next general election.

  5. #325
    Seasoned Pro CraftyToePoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid View Post
    2. Labour / SNP bring a no confidence motion against the Government - it is defeated.
    Can't see Corbyn / Lab playing this shot unless they know its going to win, and even if it does, what is their prize ? To possibly inherit this spiraling horror show, which is entirely of their Tory opponents making & end up blamed for its outcomes as well.

    If they induce another vote, the external optics give them the moral high ground but within Labour itself, didn't 30% vote leave also ? So they'll be watchful of that primarily too, and how to bring it about, if at all.

    There are, few, if any good moves here, for any of them.

    They, Labour, are more open to Irish unity also, so they dont want to drive the DUP back into the arms of the Tories at a key moment.

    Its gripping entertainment, if it was a TV show, it'd be hailed as genius, trouble is, its real and its happening.

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  7. #326
    Seasoned Pro CraftyToePoke's Avatar
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    I really think, May's government put a lot of eggs in the basket that at some crunch point, the EU would sacrifice little Ireland to secure relations with their giant economy and let Ireland unify if they want out of the ensuing arrangements if needs be. We are closer and closer to end game without that having happened.

    The Tories, love or loathe them, have always been ruthlessly capable in their objectives, what those objectives are and how to achieve them. That's gone, that's what's new here, they can't collectively identify or secure their desired outcome and its fun to watch.
    Last edited by CraftyToePoke; 14/12/2018 at 3:26 AM.

  8. #327
    The Cheeto God Real ale Madrid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke View Post
    Can't see Corbyn / Lab playing this shot unless they know its going to win, and even if it does, what is their prize ? To possibly inherit this spiraling horror show, which is entirely of their Tory opponents making & end up blamed for its outcomes as well.

    If they induce another vote, the external optics give them the moral high ground but within Labour itself, didn't 30% vote leave also ? So they'll be watchful of that primarily too, and how to bring it about, if at all.

    There are, few, if any good moves here, for any of them.

    They, Labour, are more open to Irish unity also, so they dont want to drive the DUP back into the arms of the Tories at a key moment.

    Its gripping entertainment, if it was a TV show, it'd be hailed as genius, trouble is, its real and its happening.
    Agree with this - it is a possibility however that Labour win an election , delay article 50 and go to a people's vote - not very likely, but more likely than it happening from within a Tory led government.

    I can't for the life of me understand how a comprehensive defeat of the Brexit deal wouldn't trigger a GE. The Government over there is not functioning at all.
    If a dog weighs under 50 lbs it's a cat, and cats are useless.

  9. #328
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    I was/am worried that the EU would eventually throw Ireland under the bus (it certainly seems at times that the pro-Brexit lot in the UK thought they would), but all indications are that the EU leaders have basically told May to go jump over the last few days. The persistent refrain of "The UK won't tell us exactly what they actually want" is very indicative of how nonsensical this has all become.

    The UK parliament isn't going to approve this deal so its either an election, a change of government without one or just blundering into a "no deal" exit. I'd wager it will be the first option with the campaign turning into a de facto Peoples Vote.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  10. #329
    Like the Fonz. Only a dog. Mr A's Avatar
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    So far we have had full backing from the rest of the EU. The British are helping us here by being a bit of a mess and being aggressive and arrogant so making the EU more inclined than ever to have our backs.

    The whole think is an insane act of national self-harm based on nostalgia for a Britain that never was.

  11. #330
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    Morning snowflakes (well if only on the highground)

    Quote Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke View Post
    but within Labour itself, didn't 30% vote leave also ? So they'll be watchful of that primarily too, and how to bring it about, if at all
    Many of those past Labour voters will have already moved to the Tories, often briefly via UKIP. I live in one of the strongest Leave areas in the West Midlands, Dudley. In our local elections this year the Tories took almost all of the collapsing UKIP vote.

    They, Labour, are more open to Irish unity also, so they dont want to drive the DUP back into the arms of the Tories at a key moment
    The traditional model doesn't really apply. Just because Corbyn/ McDonnell/ Abbott were ardent pro-Shinners 30 years ago doesn't mean they'd make a UI priority in Government in 2019, given all the other likely crises. While for all the baloney about preserving the UK, Tory politicians- and increasingly their voters- are getting well peed off with the DUP's antics

  12. #331
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    The EU has committed to nothing other than the following:

    "It is the Union's firm determination to work speedily on a subsequent agreement that establishes by December 31, 2020, alternative arrangements, so that the backstop will not need to be triggered"

    But I see May is already trying to make this look like a much bigger deal than it really is. Meanwhile Arlen Foster insists she just has to "stand up to" all 27 EU member states, like it's the most natural thing in the world.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  13. #332
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    Foster couldnt sell a deal/ stand up to, her DUP colleagues on Fermanagh & Omagh Council

  14. #333
    Seasoned Pro CraftyToePoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gather round View Post
    Many of those past Labour voters will have already moved to the Tories, often briefly via UKIP. I live in one of the strongest Leave areas in the West Midlands, Dudley. In our local elections this year the Tories took almost all of the collapsing UKIP vote.
    I live in the East Midlands, the Shire to West Midlands, Mordor as it were and I offer my sympathies. As l'Anglais say, bad luck old chap.
    Yeah, Tories have hoovered up the UKIP vote over this way too, after something like a 25% showing in the not too distant past at local level. I still feel there is enough of a 'Leave' contingent in Labour, that Corbyn needs to be mindful of though GR.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gather round View Post
    The traditional model doesn't really apply. Just because Corbyn/ McDonnell/ Abbott were ardent pro-Shinners 30 years ago doesn't mean they'd make a UI priority in Government in 2019, given all the other likely crises. While for all the baloney about preserving the UK, Tory politicians- and increasingly their voters- are getting well peed off with the DUP's antics
    McDonnell said unity was his solution on C4 only last week though. He respected the demographics obviously, but was pretty clear where on where this should end up.

    Agree re DUP, their sojourn in the London limelight has not gone well, on any front, on any level. The NI business & agriculture communities speaking favourably of Mays proposals while they just kept repeating no, no, no, was a particular highlight.

    What was yours ?

  15. #334
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    Quote Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke View Post
    I still feel there is enough of a 'Leave' contingent in Labour, that Corbyn needs to be mindful of though GR
    Indeed, but if they are 30% and falling of Labour's vote share (as suggested above) they probably can/ should be faced down. Pandering to them by pretending a better deal can be negotiated with the consistent EU in next to no time is dishonest, and pretty daft.

    McDonnell said unity was his solution on C4 only last week though. He respected the demographics obviously, but was pretty clear where on where this should end up
    The problem I mentioned wasn't the demographics, but simply that sorting out NI isn't likely to be a priority given other problems in the next 5-10 years. I'm sure JMD, JC and co still have the convictions of their youth

    Agree re DUP, their sojourn in the London limelight has not gone well, on any front, on any level. The NI business & agriculture communities speaking favourably of Mays proposals while they just kept repeating no, no, no, was a particular highlight...What was yours?
    Forty shades of pink on Sammy Wilson's coupon as he gets ever more worked up?

  16. #335
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    So we have a, no confidence, in May from Corbyn tonight.
    Looks like the Tories are trying to bury it, as silly games.
    Whatever next, will this saga bring us ?

  17. #336
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    Quote Originally Posted by ifk101 View Post
    In the scenario of a no-deal Brexit, did not the UK government give commitments to proceed to phase two of the Brexit negotiations that ruled out a border in the absence of a deal? And in the absence of a deal, this effectively meant continued alignment to the EU? I don't see how it is possible for the UK to break cleanly away from the EU and to adhere to past agreements/ commitments made.
    If there's no deal, then there is no phase 2!

  19. #338
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    MPs reject Theresa May's Brexit deal by 432 votes to 202; the largest defeat for a sitting government in British history.

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a vote of no confidence, which will be debated and voted on tomorrow.

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    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    She's apparently likely to win that vote: the only thing hardcore Tories and DUP hate more than her deal is the idea of Corbyn being in charge. Still, if I was a Prime Minister and lost a hugely significant vote by that margin, I'd have slunk my way to Buckingham Palace out of sheer embarrassment.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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