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Thread: Brexit - The End of the United Kingdom?

  1. #341
    Apprentice Blue Lou's Avatar
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    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...d=tmg_share_tw

    Theresa May is considering amending the Good Friday Agreement as part of a fresh attempt to unblock the Brexit logjam, The Daily Telegraph understands.

    The Prime Minister will on Monday update Parliament on her attempts to draw up a so-called "plan B" for Brexit following cross-party talks in Westminster - and discussions with other EU leaders.

    One of the proposals under consideration is rewriting the 1998 accord to assure Ireland that the UK is committed to no hard border on the island after the UK leaves the European Union in March.
    The rest is behind a paywall.

  2. #342
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    I mean, even if she could do that, and even if our government went along with it, wouldn't that require some manner of referendum here?

    Edit: Numerous government figures are flatly rejecting the idea of British/Irish talks separate to the EU. I was under the assumption we couldn't make agreements of such a kind separate to the EU anyway.
    Last edited by NeverFeltBetter; 21/01/2019 at 9:04 AM.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  3. #343
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    John Humphrys asked Helen McEntee in a BBC interview why Ireland shouldn't just hitch itself to the UK and leave the EU as well. Yep. That's what passes as informed comment over there. Makes me ashamed of my Manc origins....
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eu-and-join-uk

    Counter-questions for Humphrys: given that for several hundred years after the Norman invasion French was the language of the ruling class in England, why doesn't the UK throw in its lot with the French and stay in the EU? Or before that, given that the Anglo-Saxons, who gave the country its language, had just popped over from Germany to invade, why doesn't the UK throw in its lot with the Germans and stay in the EU? Bull5hit, of course, but just as informed as Humphrys.


    [Edit - should have mentioned the Romans, too, but but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?]
    Last edited by Eminence Grise; 27/01/2019 at 10:11 PM.
    Hello, hello? What's going on? What's all this shouting, we'll have no trouble here!
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  5. #344
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    As has become evident over the last few months, there is a very real sentiment in parts of the British media and political establishment that Ireland should know its place. And that place seems to be west Britain.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  6. #345
    Like the Fonz. Only a dog. Mr A's Avatar
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    In fairness to the presenter, he was putting a view across that some of the wingnut Brexiteers have been proposing. It's crazy and ignorant of course, but some of the discourse around this whole fiasco has been amazing in the worst way!

  7. #346
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    I read today that the NHS has cancelled a scheduled blood donation drive in Dover in late March/early April because of concerns over Brexit-related congestion. Only fair to say they note they have enough stock of blood in the area.

    All these amendment discussions in the Commons are so blatantly disingenuous. The EU has said over and over again that they will not renegotiate or accept a watering down of the backstop. It really seems like the Tories and DUP are happy to blunder into a no-deal exit as long as they can say it's all the EU's fault.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  8. #347
    Seasoned Pro CraftyToePoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter View Post
    All these amendment discussions in the Commons are so blatantly disingenuous. The EU has said over and over again that they will not renegotiate or accept a watering down of the backstop. It really seems like the Tories and DUP are happy to blunder into a no-deal exit as long as they can say it's all the EU's fault.
    An exercise in internal party matters, and drawing her two warring wings together more than anything, and at a moment she needed to look out, she focused completely inward & with some immediate success it must be said, but what will it get her ? Its all based upon the EU being willing to throw Ireland under the bus at some stage, as it stands. Lets see if they do. I would love if English arrogance was met with a closed door on the matter, but will it be ?

    A hard crash out delivers the mother of all borders anyway, the one thing all agree on, and the Tories know this too.

  9. #348
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    More chance of a United Ireland hosting Euro 2032 than this I think: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/...xit-world-cup/
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  10. #349
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    Had to laugh at this this morning: https://twitter.com/OwenSmith_MP/sta...13626846986240
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  11. #350
    First Team backstothewall's Avatar
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    This is the week the Tories start eating other. Talk of a general election being in the offing. May has lost her voice again. The government's authority is in tatters.

    It all reminds me of the last days of the Cowan government. Or the fall of Saigon.

  12. #351
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    Losing votes of this magnitude should mean an extension and then an immediate general election. May has no mandate to do anything.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter View Post
    Losing votes of this magnitude should mean an extension and then an immediate general election. May has no mandate to do anything.
    I see your point, and it has a lot to back it up, but on the other hand, take back control brexit means brexit strong and stable.

  15. #353
    First Team backstothewall's Avatar
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    What an absolute **** show
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

  16. #354
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    Seasoned Pro CraftyToePoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by backstothewall View Post
    Didn't gain much purchase in the news over here (England) during the week, with the ceaseless howling from all other political quarters.

    At what point, or what survey source, does can the secretary be compelled to enact the GFA agreed referendum though ?

  18. #356
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    It'd be a mistake to do so now, if unification is the goal. A narrow defeat would be used as grounds not to hold another referrendum for a very long time, and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though.
    Dental Plan

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    Quote Originally Posted by John83 View Post
    It'd be a mistake to do so now, if unification is the goal. A narrow defeat would be used as grounds not to hold another referrendum for a very long time, and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though.
    A narrow majority as Brexit has proven is a receipt for chaos, best to wait.

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  21. #358
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    Quote Originally Posted by John83 View Post
    It'd be a mistake to do so now, if unification is the goal. A narrow defeat would be used as grounds not to hold another referrendum for a very long time, and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though.
    Quote Originally Posted by D24Saint View Post
    A narrow majority as Brexit has proven is a receipt for chaos, best to wait.
    Sure, we probably shouldn't have a referendum in the immediate aftermath, but with these numbers it's surely time to start thinking about what a United Ireland would mean and how it could be peacefully achieved.

  22. #359
    First Team Gather round's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke View Post
    At what point, or what survey source, does can the secretary be compelled to enact the GFA agreed referendum though ?
    As we're seeing now it's hard to compel the Brit PM to do anything- our system entrenches his/ her almost unlimited power behind the nonsense of asking the Queen's permission...

    The Euro Election in May this year had only 36% in NI voting first preference for explicitly United Ireland parties. There's clearly a difficulty moving from a system where people vote for 3 distinct blocs (all now on 20%+) to a referendum with only 2 choices

    Quote Originally Posted by John83
    It'd be a mistake to do so now, if unification is the goal. A narrow defeat would be used as grounds not to hold another referrendum for a very long time
    It would be an argument, but not a compelling one in itself. A narrow defeat- followed by a further fall in Unionist numbers in the next election- would be strong justification for another referendum fairly soon

    and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though
    A fairly predictable devlopment over the next 5-10 years is that Brexit won't be finally sorted

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Hayden jr
    it's surely time to start thinking about what a United Ireland would mean and how it could be peacefully achieved
    You (plural) have been thinking about it since 1925

    There is a wide range of thinking, from the most positive (economists like David McWilliams) to the mainly negative (jounalists like Fintan O'Toole). Then there's the debate about whether the South should simply absorb NI, or alternatively have an entirely new structure. But put simply, if it's anything like the first option you are increasing the population of the State by 40%, many of the newcomers likely to be less than keen. All at a time of economic disruption etc etc
    Last edited by Gather round; 26/09/2019 at 1:06 PM.

  23. #360
    First Team The Fly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CraftyToePoke View Post
    Didn't gain much purchase in the news over here (England) during the week, with the ceaseless howling from all other political quarters.

    At what point, or what survey source, does can the secretary be compelled to enact the GFA agreed referendum though ?
    The Northern Ireland Act 1998 simply states that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.

    It is not clear exactly what would satisfy this requirement. Typical suggestions include i) a consistent majority in opinion polls; ii) a Catholic majority in a census, iii) a nationalist majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, or iv) a vote by a majority in the Assembly. These could all be considered evidence of majority support for a united Ireland.

    Personally speaking, I wouldn't be surprised if a border poll is called in 2023 when the results of the next census are published.

    Quote Originally Posted by John83 View Post
    It'd be a mistake to do so now, if unification is the goal. A narrow defeat would be used as grounds not to hold another referrendum for a very long time, and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though.
    That's highly unlikely. A narrow defeat would just increase the push to hold another in seven years; the minimum interval stipulated in the Agreement.

    Quote Originally Posted by samhaydenjr View Post
    Sure, we probably shouldn't have a referendum in the immediate aftermath, but with these numbers it's surely time to start thinking about what a United Ireland would mean and how it could be peacefully achieved.
    Indeed. Even South Korea has a Ministry of Unification!
    Last edited by The Fly; 30/09/2019 at 12:44 PM.

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