'Ireland on course to issue one million passports in wake of Brexit': http://www.irishtimes.com/news/irela...exit-1.3050540
Originally Posted by Gordon Deegan
It can't be any other way. If 21,000 British soldiers and 13,000 RUC couldn't secure the border a couple of dozen customs officers armed with no more than clipboards and biros aren't going to be able to.
Last edited by backstothewall; 05/04/2017 at 10:33 PM.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
'Ireland on course to issue one million passports in wake of Brexit': http://www.irishtimes.com/news/irela...exit-1.3050540
Originally Posted by Gordon Deegan
It's a little known fact that Mrs Backstothewall is one of them'uns. Our kids have both British and Irish passports as a result. The British ones are due to be renewed but she's decided not to bother, and she's getting an Irish one before we go away next.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
May to put call for June 8 general election before Commons
http://www.rte.ie/news/world/2017/04...7-uk-politics/
Interesting times ahead ... can see this being played as Referendum #2 in Scotland and NI.
Hello, hello? What's going on? What's all this shouting, we'll have no trouble here!
- E Tattsyrup.
I know Corbyn has agreed to support this, but the party members would be absolutely insane to.
Well they did.
Labour have had so many opportunities to hurt the Tories with Brexit and they have failed miserably. I kinda want them to die at this stage. Useless cretins. Corbyn is a mug.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
I just want Scotland gone from this whole mess. Sure it abandons England to the right-wingers and racists, but England have had plenty of chances to fix things and just keep lurching further and further towards a permanent Thatcherian dystopia. Any progressive English people who want out of Toryland will be more than welcome north of the border.
A vivid piece, this, with insight into past, present and possible future Irish border-life.
'Will Brexit reopen old wounds with a new hard border in Northern Ireland?': https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ounds-troubles
Originally Posted by Sean O'Hagan
All very amusing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39770328
Clearly, the Tories are desperately trying to paint for the British people a very different and misleading picture from what is really going on behind the scenes. I hope the British electorate can see through this and duly punish them in the upcoming election. It's hard to see anything other than a Tory victory at the minute, unfortunately, although Labour do appear to be closing the gap, according the latest polls: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7709961.htmlOriginally Posted by BBC
Perhaps Corbyn has the momentum...Originally Posted by Rachael Revesz
I read some details of that dinner, May comes off looking comically ignorant of the EU's position. There's genuine shock that the EU isn't prepared to let Brexit be a success.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
Are we still trusting pollsters given their track record through Likud victory, Scottish Independence, Brexit, many of the Sanders v Clinton primaries, Trump as nominee, and Trump v Clinton?
2015 and 2016 were anni horribiles for the polling profession... You'd hope to see massive changes in their analytics and methodologies before putting any significant stock in what they are telling us.
As you say Danny, I am finding it difficult to foresee anything other than a comfortable win for the Tories.
Just seeing some further details of what was discussed at the dinner here: https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/05/01...-about-brexit/
May really does come out of it badly; amateurish, by the sounds of things.Originally Posted by Jeremy Cliffe
I'd disagree with that. The pollsters have delivered exactly what they said they were delivering.
The polls in the run up to Brexit showed it being very tight. It ended up being very close.
The polling on the run up to the US election showed Clinton ahead nationally by between 1%-4%. She won the popular vote by 2.1%.
The problem wasn't in the polling. It was in how it was reported
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
That is one take alright. However, I would dispute many facets of it.
Almost all of the swing state polls were predicting Clinton victories of varying degrees to the extent that outlets such as CNN proclaimed that Trump had no path to victory. That is why Trumps victory shocked everyone. That is why Sanders victories in the primaries in States where polls were predicting comfortable Clinton wins shocked everyone. The media reported what the pollsters were saying.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/econo...ist-explains-3
With respect to Brexit, the pollsters again got it wrong. True, they predicted a close call but most were predicting in and around a 4 point swing in favour of Stay. To the extent that Farage and other members of the Leave campaign conceded defeat on the day of the referendum.But at the state level, the errors were extreme. The polling average in Wisconsin gave her a lead of more than five points; she is expected to lose it by two and a half. It gave Mr Trump a relatively narrow two-point edge in Ohio; he ran away with the state by more than eight. He trailed in Michigan and Pennsylvania by four, and looks likely to take both by about a point.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/pollst...-brexit-2016-7
The companies that do this work do need to adjust how they are approaching these issues and ensuring that their bias and other factors are accounted for appropriately. As Jon Cohen, Chief Research Officer for SurveyMonkey said at the time of the Brexit result:
Anyway, I don't want to drag this thread too much further off topic. Apologies. Might be worth its own thread?"We have to learn from missteps that we've seen and Brexit is just the latest spur to get it right," he said. "But we just have to get it right, it's too important not to."
There was very little state level polling done by crebible polling companies in the US election though. With the national polls the way they were the focus was on places like Arizona and Georgia. Hard to say who to blame for that. The polling companies weren't polling them but they poll the places the media pay them to poll.
I was speaking to Bill White recently who runs lucidtalk polling in Belfast (he's had some excellent results).
He was saying that when Hillary was in Arizona the week before the election that Bill Clinton was going crackers behind the scene saying she needed to be in the rust belt.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
An astonishing list of Theresa May's gaffes and (what should be) campaigning embarrassments so far here, yet "[a] recent general election poll found that an astounding 41% of respondents concluded that Theresa May is running a good campaign compared to 22% who thought it was going badly": http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.ie...ally-like.html
Originally Posted by Another Angry Voice
Obama endorses that French Macaroons guy in stupid ad on French TV. What could possibly go wrong? And why are Macaroons so expensive? They're like 5 bucks each in some places. I like the pink ones.
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