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Thread: Brexit - The End of the United Kingdom?

  1. #201
    Seasoned Pro backstothewall's Avatar
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    On the election thing, even if it were true what difference would it make? Unless there was going to be an election before mid December Ireland's position won't change before the negotiation deadline as the result of an election having passed. The politics on the ground in Ireland and Europe are what they are, and GB will just have to deal with things as they are.
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

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    Capped Player DannyInvincible's Avatar
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    Newton Emerson on the sea border that's already in place: https://vimeo.com/245105579

  3. #203
    Capped Player nigel-harps1954's Avatar
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    The sea border is an interesting one. The divide on Lough Foyle has never really been agreed.
    https://kesslereffect.bandcamp.com/album/kepler - New music. It's not that bad.

  4. #204
    Capped Player DannyInvincible's Avatar
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    Jacob Rees-Mogg was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning and was still peddling the "FG are just showboating for an election" guff. He didn't know Fitzgerald had resigned and still thought there was going to be a confidence vote this week. Hard to believe. If you're going to feign an insight into Irish affairs in order to push a false narrative, at least keep on top of the most crucial recent developments.

    Meanwhile, Brexit will put special rights for Irish citizens in the UK at risk, according to a report drawn up by legal experts on behalf of the Traveller Movement: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-in-uk-at-risk

  5. #205
    Capped Player DannyInvincible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954 View Post
    The sea border is an interesting one. The divide on Lough Foyle has never really been agreed.
    Aye, Brokenshire claimed "the whole of Lough Foyle is within the UK" last November, but the wording of the Government of Ireland Act 1920 would actually suggest the Irish government have a more valid claim to the whole of the lough.

  6. #206
    Seasoned Pro backstothewall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DannyInvincible View Post
    I'd imagine it was an issue that up until 98 the constitution didn't recognise the north, which would have made it practically impossible to come to any agreement on Lough Foyle. It's an example of something that might be resolved on the fringes of Brexit.

    The big gamble here for Ireland is will a hard Brexit actually happen. On a good day we can agree a load of issues on favourable terms now, only for the UK to remain in the customs union and single market "in the interim", only for Corbyn to be in power by the time the interim period is due to end, and the interim arrangements to become permanent.

    One thing i take great heart from has been the change in attitude to Irish unity I've observed in the south in this last 18 months. It sees to have moved from being a rainbows and unicorns aspiration of a wing in Fianna Fail, to a realistic long term policy objective with universal support across the political spectrum. I'm hopeful that whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations that the southern government will do more to involve us nordies in the life of the nation.

    I'm no fan of the blueshirts but Simon Coveney is a hard man to dislike (i may well be comparing him to Dermot MacMurrough by the end of next week depending on what happens).
    Last edited by backstothewall; 04/12/2017 at 12:32 AM.
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

  7. #207
    First Team The Fly's Avatar
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    This did raise more than a smile!



    Check out the first reply

  8. #208
    Seasoned Pro backstothewall's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/sta...42355322212353

    Acc to one version of EU-UK draft: “In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market + customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation +protection of the GFA.”
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

  9. #209
    Seasoned Pro ifk101's Avatar
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    That's mad.

  10. #210
    International Prospect NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    The DUP won't accept that, right? For all their nattering about Irish politicians prepping for an election, they might all be going to the polls themselves before too long.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  11. #211
    Seasoned Pro backstothewall's Avatar
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    Labour will vote for it. The SNP and Lib Dems will vote no for their own reasons but it will still go through the House of Commons with a majority of about 350 no matter what the DUP do.

    If they want to bring down the Tory government after that they can but the best case scenario for them after an election is the same Tory government, and the more likely scenario is a Corbyn government.

    And that is why they are the weakest party to these negotiations.
    Last edited by backstothewall; 04/12/2017 at 1:17 PM.
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

  12. #212
    International Prospect NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    Arlene Foster says Northern Ireland must leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the UK, adds that the DUP will not accept any regulatory divergence.
    The DUP leader also said the Irish Government is seeking to "unilaterally change the Belfast Agreement without our consent".
    Like voting for Brexit tried to change it without the Republic's consent?
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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  14. #213
    International Prospect osarusan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by backstothewall View Post

    If they want to bring down the Tory government after that they can but the best case scenario for them after an election is the same Tory government, and the more likely scenario is a Corbyn government.
    Would that stop the DUP from bringing down the government though? I mean, if they are to have their voters think they stand for anything, they must be considering it. Arlene's comments would suggest that it's something they won't stand for.

    And it doesn't have to be 'after that' though, does it? They can pull the plug any time they want. I wonder would Labour agree to let a minority government to get the stage 1 negotiations over the line. Perhaps the whole thing will just be quickly approved before any DUP policy change could jeopardise it.
    Last edited by osarusan; 04/12/2017 at 2:41 PM.

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    Capped Player DannyInvincible's Avatar
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    Great news. I'll be honest, I hadn't expected it. I feared the Irish government would relent or thought the Tories might even take it thick and lump it, departing with no agreement, which would have been the "worst nightmare" scenario. No agreement would have meant the UK trading under WTO rules, which would have meant the hardest of Brexits/borders.

    The DUP must be snapping. It will be interesting to see what their next course of action will be. The ideal outcome would be that the border matter is agreed today in writing, the DUP then pull the plug on the confidence and supply arrangement with the Tories and then the Tories are thrown out of Downing Street in a resulting general election. A new Labour government would still be obliged to follow through on the British government's commitment on the border.

    Scotland will be pushing for unique status now, and they have a precedent.

  16. #215
    Capped Player DannyInvincible's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter View Post
    Like voting for Brexit tried to change it without the Republic's consent?
    What's Arlene on about? In what sense exactly might this amount to the Irish government seeking to "unilaterally change the Belfast Agreement without [their] consent"? This arrangement upholds the GFA, for it maintains the status quo on the island.

  17. #216
    International Prospect osarusan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DannyInvincible View Post
    Scotland will be pushing for unique status now, and they have a precedent.
    In terms of a region of the UK getting a different deal, yes.

    But the government can cite GFA regulations and obligations there. I don't think there is anything similar for Scotland. I would imagine that Scotland, more than NI even, was in the minds of the UK government as they go through negotiations.

  18. #217
    International Prospect NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    Sadiq Khan is also already making noises about London being covered in a similar manner.

    Edit: Foster's full statement seems fairly conclusive. The Tory/DUP deal appears to be over if the indicated agreement goes ahead.
    Last edited by NeverFeltBetter; 04/12/2017 at 3:18 PM.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    International Prospect NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
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    Foster had a word with May before her final round with Junker and Tusk apparently. Now "consultation" required before an agreement. I'll bet.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    International Prospect osarusan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter View Post
    Foster had a word with May before her final round with Junker and Tusk apparently. Now "consultation" required before an agreement. I'll bet.
    It's all speculation here, but if Foster having a word with her his true - I don't get how May would not have been aware of the likely DUP response to such a deal though. In fact, I'd expect the DUP to have made her aware of their 'dealbreakers' in advance.

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