League of Ireland in Europe 2016

**sparky12345678** · 20/09/2016, 7:26 PM

the contribution that Dundalk makes is still only a fraction...

As someone said, Dundalk would probably need to win the thing and even then...
At present we have 8.5 points for this year; I calculated what it would be like if Dundalk got the league haul up to 28.5 points... which is ahem 10 more wins still only gives them 3.465 for next year. Still not enough to be seeded. They dont pick up bonus points til the quarter finals... So far as I see it, even winning the thing wouldnt boost the league part up enough.

While the league co-efficient part is a good incentive it only really starts to improve if a second or third team gets a decent haul that year plus one good year is not enough for clubs, they need a consistent 2 or 3 years of an average-to-good haul for it to show. (look at what will happen to Celtic if they fail to get any points this year... they will drop below AZ in the rankings for 2018... although the 10 year consideration will change that further along also).
Had Cork beaten Genk, and had a decent showing against Lokomotiva (who clearly werent great shakes either if Genk knocked them out) things might be healthier for Cork then to benefit from the improved league co-efficient although Cork's has a notably worse record over these last 5 years than Dundalk making it difficult even then.

**legendz** · 20/09/2016, 7:49 PM

Originally Posted by fionnsci

A disappointing return as I alluded to above. Is your point that the current system doesn't offer a good chance of Europa League Group Stage qualification? We've had two teams achieve it in the last 5 years.

When the champions route came in I would have thought the average of LoI teams getting through to CLQ3 would have been 1 in 2 years as opposed to 1 in 4 years.

There is some speculation that around 30 teams might enter CLQ1 when the access list is updated later in the year and Europa League entry might be extended to CLQ2 losers.

Our league's champion tends to be in and around 5 places of a seeding in the current CLQ2. If the speculation on 30 teams entering CLQ1 is accurate, LoI champions will most likely be seeding in CLQ1.

Since UEFA gave the top leagues more direct qualification to the Europa League, we've had 3 teams starting off in ELQ1. LoI teams by and large have negotiated ELQ1 fairly well. LoI champions in the mooted CLQ1 should have similar success, possibly guaranteeing a place in ELQ3 at the very least. While the champions league route will be getting narrower, the Europa League door could be opening a bit for the league's champion.

**Charlie Darwin** · 20/09/2016, 9:34 PM

Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954

If the League of Ireland had the resources of Scottish football..

Anto Flood would be a millionaire.

**El-Pietro** · 20/09/2016, 10:44 PM

Originally Posted by sparky12345678

the contribution that Dundalk makes is still only a fraction...

As someone said, Dundalk would probably need to win the thing and even then...
At present we have 8.5 points for this year; I calculated what it would be like if Dundalk got the league haul up to 28.5 points... which is ahem 10 more wins still only gives them 3.465 for next year. Still not enough to be seeded. They dont pick up bonus points til the quarter finals... So far as I see it, even winning the thing wouldnt boost the league part up enough.

While the league co-efficient part is a good incentive it only really starts to improve if a second or third team gets a decent haul that year plus one good year is not enough for clubs, they need a consistent 2 or 3 years of an average-to-good haul for it to show. (look at what will happen to Celtic if they fail to get any points this year... they will drop below AZ in the rankings for 2018... although the 10 year consideration will change that further along also).
Had Cork beaten Genk, and had a decent showing against Lokomotiva (who clearly werent great shakes either if Genk knocked them out) things might be healthier for Cork then to benefit from the improved league co-efficient although Cork's has a notably worse record over these last 5 years than Dundalk making it difficult even then.

We wouldn't have been seeded so we'd have had a tougher draw than Genk. Genk were one of the highest ranked teams we could draw in the third round. Second highest I think. For the playoff round the draw wasn't made until after all qualifiers were known so we couldn't carry Genk coefficient through to the next round.

**sparky12345678** · 21/09/2016, 7:20 AM

fair enough. In the end Cork did reasonably well this year (especially compared with other years), beating two teams nominally ranked higher. Its a pity Rovers didnt get through and Pats also got a tough draw and just missed out as well.
We should be hoping/aiming for at least 2 teams in the 3rd QR (although i see that most irish teams would be unseeded here also) and a bit of luck to sneak a win to get through to the playoff..

**nigel-harps1954** · 21/09/2016, 8:55 AM

The only thing that was going to improve the co-efficient by any great leap was every team getting through at least one round and every team winning at least one game in the process all over the 5 year period. With the new incoming rules though, the chat of co-efficient could be a thing of the past.

**jinxy lilywhite** · 21/09/2016, 9:08 AM

The luck of the draw though is a huge factor. For instance if we hadn't of gotten the lowest rank seed in Qr2 could we of gotten through.

In the qualifying rounds there are so many uncontrollable factors that make it difficult to gauge how we are doing against other leagues or on our progressions

**legendz** · 21/09/2016, 9:42 AM

Originally Posted by sparky12345678

We should be hoping/aiming for at least 2 teams in the 3rd QR (although i see that most irish teams would be unseeded here also) and a bit of luck to sneak a win to get through to the playoff..

All 3 EL representatives should be making ELQ2 at the very least. CLQ2 and ELQ2 have been tricky, doable but tough to get through. Across both competitions it would be great to see at least 2 make Q3 consistently.

**El-Pietro** · 21/09/2016, 10:20 AM

Originally Posted by legendz

All 3 EL representatives should be making ELQ2 at the very least. CLQ2 and ELQ2 have been tricky, doable but tough to get through. Across both competitions it would be great to see at least 2 make Q3 consistently.

Why should all 3 be making the second round at the very least? What if we're not seeded? You know the teams we face want to win as well right?

**Ezeikial** · 21/09/2016, 10:33 AM

Originally Posted by El-Pietro

You know the teams we face want to win as well right?

Only sometimes. Ask the Sligo lads

**legendz** · 21/09/2016, 10:34 AM

Originally Posted by El-Pietro

Why should all 3 be making the second round at the very least? What if we're not seeded? You know the teams we face want to win as well right?

Review LoI performances in ELQ1 since 3 teams have been starting in that round. Obviously their Q1 opponents will want to win as well.

**El-Pietro** · 21/09/2016, 11:58 AM

Originally Posted by legendz

Review LoI performances in ELQ1 since 3 teams have been starting in that round. Obviously their Q1 opponents will want to win as well.

So... you are agreeing with me? I'm sorry I don't know what you have added here?

**sparky12345678** · 21/09/2016, 12:40 PM

well this year two teams were seeded. Cork City werent and progressed. This QR1 is quite interesting, the higher seeds come from leagues ranked nominally better than us but an irish team shouldnt be scared to try to take them on (I notice that Maccabi started in this round this year also but both other israeli representatives were eliminated; Israel are ed; one of the lower ranked league in EL group stages bar ireland but have two representatives in the Europa league but they arent exactly miles ahead of the irish league... lets hope

edit: Azerbajan also have 2 representatives and are ranked slightly lower than Israel).
In fact Irish teams should be aiming to be seeded at the very least in this round (and in the Champions League, it wasnt that long ago when clubs were closer to that line). All 3 should have qualified this year to QR2. Cork did well to qualify and it was a pity Pats didnt here. 2 teams into QR3 is a decent "hope". and with a bit of luck 1 gets into the playoff round to join our league champion (unless they pull a Dundalk).

**legendz** · 21/09/2016, 1:06 PM

Originally Posted by El-Pietro

So... you are agreeing with me? I'm sorry I don't know what you have added here?

I don't know what you are adding here?

**Dodge** · 21/09/2016, 1:26 PM

Originally Posted by sparky12345678

All 3 should have qualified this year to QR2. Cork did well to qualify and it was a pity Pats didnt here.

Pats did...

**pineapple stu** · 21/09/2016, 1:29 PM

Originally Posted by legendz

I don't know what you are adding here?

The LoI record in Europe in the past few years in no way supports your theory that we should be able to target 3/3 progressing through QR1 of the Europa League every year.

**Real ale Madrid** · 21/09/2016, 1:38 PM

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

The LoI record in Europe in the past few years in no way supports your theory that we should be able to target 3/3 progressing through QR1 of the Europa League every year.

So past failure means we should lower our future targets

**El-Pietro** · 21/09/2016, 1:44 PM

Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

So past failure means we should lower our future targets

Nothing wrong with aiming high, but Legedz just said:

All 3 EL representatives should be making ELQ2 at the very least.

I don't see that as realistic. Ideally wed have teams in the group stages every year, but were a long way from that.

**pineapple stu** · 21/09/2016, 1:50 PM

Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

So past failure means we should lower our future targets

Where did I say that?

I simply disagreed with legendz who said that the LoI's recent record in Europe means we should (my emphasis) have all three teams getting through the first round of the Europa League.

That simply doesn't follow.

**Real ale Madrid** · 21/09/2016, 2:03 PM

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

Where did I say that?

I was referring to your post here.

Originally Posted by pineapple stu

The LoI record in Europe in the past few years in no way supports your theory that we should be able to target 3/3 progressing through QR1 of the Europa League every year.

Saying that we should get 3/3 through QR1 seems a reasonable target to set to me. Rovers should have completed the trio this year. It actually seems quite a reasonable thing to aspire to if the FAI was doing something like a strategic plan!