Page 5 of 9 FirstFirst ... 34567 ... LastLast
Results 81 to 100 of 179

Thread: The 2016 GE thread

  1. #81
    Capped Player nigel-harps1954's Avatar
    Joined
    Feb 2009
    Location
    On a dodgy bus
    Posts
    10,536
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    3,273
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,977
    Thanked in
    1,749 Posts
    Is a Sinn Fein/AAA/PBP coalition possible?

  2. #82
    The Cheeto God Real ale Madrid's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2002
    Location
    Cork
    Posts
    3,488
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    380
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,276
    Thanked in
    626 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954 View Post
    Is a Sinn Fein/AAA/PBP coalition possible?
    There would want to be a good 20-25 years of austerity for that to become a reality.
    If a dog weighs under 50 lbs it's a cat, and cats are useless.

  3. #83
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
    Joined
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Gouldavoher
    Posts
    3,900
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    221
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    548
    Thanked in
    372 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954 View Post
    Is a Sinn Fein/AAA/PBP coalition possible?
    There would really have to be an incredibly huge swing left for that to happen. Sinn Fein will be delighted to come away with somewhere between 25-30 seats, maybe a bit more on a really good day. The AAA/PBP would be doing well to get 6 or 7. Even throwing in 3 "Inds4Change", the 4 or 5 Soc Dems and the hard left Independents with them, it would be nowhere near 79.

    This Dail is going to be as hung as any in the history of the state. Only thing resembling a stable government I can see is a minority FG/Lab coalition kept going with FF assent as it see's fit.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  4. #84
    Club Member backstothewall's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    1,979
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    151
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    420
    Thanked in
    278 Posts
    Irish elections are seldom truly national these days. There are 40 almost completely unrelated elections happening on Friday. For that reason I suspect SF and FF will exceed expectations. When telephone polls are being carried out people are being asked which party they will vote for, and people might be less likely to admit to voting for either party, but when it comes to the ballot box I think they will be more likely to vote for the local candidate of those parties.

    Irish people tend to believe that political parties are full of crooks, but the lads in their own county aren't like the rest. Everyone is sure that in general FF are the party of the brown envelope and that the Shinners would know their way around a balaclava, "but we're lucky, the FF candidate here is the cousin of the owner of Kelly's Bar, and sure the SF candidate is a nice young woman with a young family so she would never have been involved in anything like that.".

    I know SF have historically tended to underperform compared to opinion polls but their candidates will be better known know than at any previous election. A lot of them are councillors now rather than just an unknown name. It's a lot easier to assume that person you have never heard of is just a provo in a suit.

    Conversely I could see independents not doing as well as the polls would expect. The boundary changes could have a hefty impact. Independents by their nature focus hard on the constituency. When those lines move the candidates from the big parties will pick up votes in the new areas by virtue of party loyalty, but independents get no such benefit.

    I'll have a guess at...

    FG 53
    FF 39
    SF 32
    LAB 8
    OTH 26
    Last edited by backstothewall; 24/02/2016 at 12:57 AM.
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

  5. Thanks From:


  6. #85
    Coach BonnieShels's Avatar
    Joined
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Elm Valley, Blackpool
    Posts
    11,834
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,216
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,563
    Thanked in
    1,765 Posts
    How is it possible that FF would be 14 seats behind FG? mother of God. Not saying you're wrong Walsall, but Irish people need to have a long hard look.

    FG53+SF32+LB8+SD5= Nice (Impossible, but nice)

    I'm just more petrified that FF can possibly be close to forming a coalition.
    DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?

  7. #86
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
    Joined
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Gouldavoher
    Posts
    3,900
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    221
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    548
    Thanked in
    372 Posts
    I don't see how. They'd only consider Fine Gael if they were the larger party, which remains unlikely, and Sinn Fein's membership doesn't seem stupid enough to go in with them as a junior party, in the unlikely event they'd have the numbers. They'll be happy to remain one of the central opposition voices.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  8. #87
    Club Member backstothewall's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    1,979
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    151
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    420
    Thanked in
    278 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BonnieShels View Post
    How is it possible that FF would be 14 seats behind FG? mother of God. Not saying you're wrong Walsall, but Irish people need to have a long hard look.

    FG53+SF32+LB8+SD5= Nice (Impossible, but nice)

    I'm just more petrified that FF can possibly be close to forming a coalition.
    Lots of reasons, but there's no way i'm showing my sums until you have a guess ☺

  9. #88
    International Prospect bennocelt's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Basel (Allschwil)
    Posts
    5,721
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    422
    Thanked in
    323 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by backstothewall View Post

    Irish people tend to believe that political parties are full of crooks, but the lads in their own county aren't like the rest. Everyone is sure that in general FF are the party of the brown envelope and that the Shinners would know their way around a balaclava, "but we're lucky, the FF candidate here is the cousin of the owner of Kelly's Bar, and sure the SF candidate is a nice young woman with a young family so she would never have been involved in anything like that.".


    I'll have a guess at...

    FG 53
    FF 39
    SF 32
    LAB 8
    OTH 26

    That local political thinking does my head in.

    It is kind of funny, that we are in a "recovery", yet FG wont win a majority, says a lot about the economic realities of the country

    Anyway let me give a guess!
    FG 59
    FF 32
    SF 30
    Lab 7
    SD 3
    R 2
    AAA 5
    Green 1
    Others 30

  10. #89
    Club Member backstothewall's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    1,979
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    151
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    420
    Thanked in
    278 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by bennocelt View Post
    Anyway let me give a guess!
    FG 59
    FF 32
    SF 30
    Lab 7
    SD 3
    R 2
    AAA 5
    Green 1
    Others 30
    I did my working out earlier in the campaign. But with the swing that looked like it was happening to FF I moved 5 out of the FG column and into the FF one. If I undo that i'm remarkably close to you

    FG 58
    FF 34
    SF 32
    LAB 8
    OTH 26

    With that last poll i'm actually happier with that. In all the polls showing a move to FF the movement was within the margin of error, and with that last poll I think it might all just have been a quirk. I don't think the campaign has changed anything tbh

    I still think FF will get a bounce in terms of the number of votes they get but they have a lot to do to translate increased votes into seats. They'll need to get that 2nd seat in constituencies to make big gains which will be very difficult.

  11. #90
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
    Joined
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Gouldavoher
    Posts
    3,900
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    221
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    548
    Thanked in
    372 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by bennocelt View Post

    Anyway let me give a guess!
    FG 59
    FF 32
    SF 30
    Lab 7
    SD 3
    R 2
    AAA 5
    Green 1
    Others 30
    Typical Irish parties, sneaking in 11 extra seats for themselves.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  12. Thanks From:


  13. #91
    International Prospect bennocelt's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Basel (Allschwil)
    Posts
    5,721
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    422
    Thanked in
    323 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter View Post
    Typical Irish parties, sneaking in 11 extra seats for themselves.
    Really, lol. Well spotted. There might have been drink when i toted them up....

    (or looking at it again..............OTHER includes SD 3, R 2,AAA 5 and the Green 1)
    Last edited by bennocelt; 25/02/2016 at 7:02 AM.

  14. #92
    International Prospect bennocelt's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Basel (Allschwil)
    Posts
    5,721
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4,507
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    422
    Thanked in
    323 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by backstothewall View Post
    I did my working out earlier in the campaign. But with the swing that looked like it was happening to FF I moved 5 out of the FG column and into the FF one. If I undo that i'm remarkably close to you

    FG 58
    FF 34
    SF 32
    LAB 8
    OTH 26

    With that last poll i'm actually happier with that. In all the polls showing a move to FF the movement was within the margin of error, and with that last poll I think it might all just have been a quirk. I don't think the campaign has changed anything tbh

    I still think FF will get a bounce in terms of the number of votes they get but they have a lot to do to translate increased votes into seats. They'll need to get that 2nd seat in constituencies to make big gains which will be very difficult.
    I also did it a few weeks ago, and if i had to do it now, I would add a few more to FF, and less off SF..............the FF vote is somehow still alive and kicking.......

  15. #93
    Club Member backstothewall's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    1,979
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    151
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    420
    Thanked in
    278 Posts
    I'm think SF will hold up well this time. Tomorrow's Indo will have the usual 'Gerry Adams sells drus to kids' election day headline, but I suspect that is serving them well among voters who might be considering voting for them. INM and RTÉ are as much a part of the establishment as the '3 Amigos', and they jumped the shark with the Late Late last Friday.

    People are ****ed at that establishment. And the establishment have made it so obvious that they can't stand SF that I think people will vote for them out of spite. It's a bit like Trump in that regard

  16. #94
    Now with extra sauce! Dodge's Avatar
    Joined
    Jun 2001
    Location
    Insomnia
    Posts
    23,575
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    663
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,674
    Thanked in
    1,453 Posts
    You keep saying "people" but the "people" have voted in a FG or FF government every single time this country has voted

    They'll still be the top 2 parties this election too.

    So the "people" are happy enough to see Adams and SF have their past dragged back up it seems
    54,321 sold - wws will never die - ***
    ---
    New blog if anyone's interested - http://loihistory.wordpress.com/
    LOI section on balls.ie - http://balls.ie/league-of-ireland/

  17. #95
    The Cheeto God Real ale Madrid's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2002
    Location
    Cork
    Posts
    3,488
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    380
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,276
    Thanked in
    626 Posts
    People eh?
    If a dog weighs under 50 lbs it's a cat, and cats are useless.

  18. #96
    Club Member backstothewall's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    1,979
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    151
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    420
    Thanked in
    278 Posts
    And they'll do the same again. But it'll probably take FF and FG together to keep the eh... populace in line this time. That's NEVER happened before.

    It's another 5 years of the same old same old but there's hope for the next time. Something worthwhile could rise out of the ashes of Labour yet. They could break bread with SF once Adams retires and in 5 years time there could finally be a government who make a few changes.

    I'm not even after revolutionary changes. But someone might just tell RTE that a national broadcaster stopping programing twice a day for the ****ing Angelus just isn't acceptable this century

  19. #97
    Godless Commie Scum
    Joined
    Jun 2001
    Location
    Co Wickla
    Posts
    11,414
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    137
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    650
    Thanked in
    433 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by backstothewall View Post
    People are ****ed at that establishment. And the establishment have made it so obvious that they can't stand SF that I think people will vote for them out of spite. It's a bit like Trump in that regard
    Taking my previous caveats about the polls, SF are the only ones that have moved beyond the margin of error the whole campaign (maybe Labour have in one or two). "People" may be annoyed at the establishment, it doesn't look like they're moving to SF from other parties or undecideds.

    Main problem for SF this time has been the economy, and Adams performance on it, rather than the (sometimes legitimate) criminality questions.
    If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.

  20. #98
    Seasoned Pro NeverFeltBetter's Avatar
    Joined
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Gouldavoher
    Posts
    3,900
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    221
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    548
    Thanked in
    372 Posts
    I got a letter in the door from Emmet Stagg this morning, announcing that new schools for the area are going to be approved "in 4 to 6 weeks". Every constituency analysis I've read has claimed he's as safe a seat as Labour has, so if he's pulling this kind of thing on the eve of the vote it must be looking really bad.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

  21. #99
    Coach BonnieShels's Avatar
    Joined
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Elm Valley, Blackpool
    Posts
    11,834
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,216
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,563
    Thanked in
    1,765 Posts
    I went through the constituencies one by one attempting not to be biased.

    Seems I may be biased towards Labour.

    FG: 55
    FF: 33
    SF: 25
    LB: 16
    SD: 3
    RN: 3
    Others: 23
    Last edited by BonnieShels; 25/02/2016 at 9:31 PM. Reason: Forgot Dublin SW
    DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?

  22. #100
    The Cheeto God Real ale Madrid's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2002
    Location
    Cork
    Posts
    3,488
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    380
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,276
    Thanked in
    626 Posts
    I came up with the following after going through each constituency on Paddy Power and taking the favorites to win a seat in each constituency. Eg 5 seater - I took the top 5 in the betting, 4 seater, top 4 and so on...

    Fine Gael 55 (+1 C.C.) 56
    Fianna Fail 40 *shudders
    Sinn Fein 24
    Labour 10
    AAA / PBP 6
    Social Democrats 3
    Renua 1
    Independents 18
    Last edited by Real ale Madrid; 25/02/2016 at 8:24 PM.
    If a dog weighs under 50 lbs it's a cat, and cats are useless.

Page 5 of 9 FirstFirst ... 34567 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. NFL Betting Thread 2016
    By Real ale Madrid in forum Entertainment
    Replies: 42
    Last Post: 18/12/2016, 11:02 AM
  2. Replies: 5
    Last Post: 07/11/2016, 8:55 PM
  3. Euro 2016 away thread
    By pineapple stu in forum Fans Forum
    Replies: 162
    Last Post: 25/10/2016, 8:19 PM
  4. Replies: 16
    Last Post: 22/06/2016, 3:07 PM
  5. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 16/02/2016, 1:00 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •