Euro 2016 Play-Offs - November 13th and 16th

**Littlest Hobo** · 11/10/2015, 11:19 PM

At the moment we will be un-seeded for the play-offs draw. Some of the other games would need to finish the following way, if we are to be seeded;

Turkey v Iceland (Draw)

Cyprus v Bosnia (Home win)

Malta v Croatia (Away win)

Italy v Norway (Home win or draw)

If all of these 4 results come in, regardless of what happens elsewhere, then we would be seeded. The draw would then look like this.

Seeded
Ukraine (assuming Slovakia win away to Luxembourg and Ukraine don't beat Spain at home).
Sweden (assuming Sweden and Russia both win their last games).
Denmark
Republic of Ireland

Un-Seeded
Norway
Turkey
Slovenia
Cyprus

Wouldn't fancy Turkey. But we could take the others over two legs.

**tricky_colour** · 11/10/2015, 11:38 PM

This seems mind blowingly complicated!!

**Littlest Hobo** · 12/10/2015, 1:42 AM

Yeah tricky, its the situation we find ourselves in... we need a cascade of certain results to occur for us to be in the seeded pot. And the four above are highly probable.
But then football is a funny old game and anything can happen!

**tricky_colour** · 12/10/2015, 2:31 AM

Highly probably or improbable?
Individually the last two might be quite probably but the others look like 2-1 shots.

Anyway if win lose and draw are equally probably you have 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 2/3 = 2/81 =~ 1/40

So even if some result are more likely than the bare maths we will be looking at 1 in a fairly big number ie 1 in 10+

So I think we should work on the basis we will not be seeded.

**davidatrb** · 12/10/2015, 7:55 AM

Originally Posted by tricky_colour

Highly probably or improbable?
Individually the last two might be quite probably but the others look like 2-1 shots.

Anyway if win lose and draw are equally probably you have 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 2/3 = 2/81 =~ 1/40

So even if some result are more likely than the bare maths we will be looking at 1 in a fairly big number ie 1 in 10+

So I think we should work on the basis we will not be seeded.

I built the relevant accumulator on paddy power. They are paying out �18.59 for a �1 stake. So about 17/1 or 6% chance of happening.

So within the realms of possibility but unlikely.

**davidatrb** · 12/10/2015, 7:58 AM

Originally Posted by Littlest Hobo

At the moment we will be un-seeded for the play-offs draw. Some of the other games would need to finish the following way, if we are to be seeded;

Turkey v Iceland (Draw)

Or if Netherlands fail to beat Czech then a loss for Turkey is also acceptable.

Cyprus v Bosnia (Home win)

Malta v Croatia (Away win)

Italy v Norway (Home win or draw)

If all of these 4 results come in, regardless of what happens elsewhere, then we would be seeded. The draw would then look like this.

Seeded
Ukraine (assuming Slovakia win away to Luxembourg and Ukraine don't beat Spain at home).
Sweden (assuming Sweden and Russia both win their last games).
Denmark
Republic of Ireland

Un-Seeded
Norway
Turkey
Slovenia
Cyprus

Wouldn't fancy Turkey. But we could take the others over two legs.

**IsMiseSean** · 12/10/2015, 9:05 AM

I wouldn't mind Sweden from a footballing point of view. I reckon they've gone backwards since our last meetings with them.
Travel wise I wouldn't fancy it again...

**zero** · 12/10/2015, 9:32 AM

i had assumed it's the case that the unseeded team would be home first - but perhaps not. from

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/finals/...d=2262387.html

"Those eight teams will be divided into two groups of seeded and non-seeded teams, based on the UEFA national team coefficient rankings (see the latest here). Each fixture will see a seeded team play against a non-seeded team, with the first team drawn to play the first leg at home."

**jbyrne** · 12/10/2015, 9:43 AM

Originally Posted by zero

i had assumed it's the case that the unseeded team would be home first - but perhaps not. from

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/finals/...d=2262387.html

"Those eight teams will be divided into two groups of seeded and non-seeded teams, based on the UEFA national team coefficient rankings (see the latest here). Each fixture will see a seeded team play against a non-seeded team, with the first team drawn to play the first leg at home."

maybe they will draw the unseeded team first each time

**zero** · 12/10/2015, 9:55 AM

Originally Posted by jbyrne

maybe they will draw the unseeded team first each time

yes - it's ambiguous. probably deliberately so, such that they can make the decision that best suits...

**Nugget** · 12/10/2015, 10:01 AM

Clutching at straws here, but would I be right in thinking that if Luxembourg somehow get a result against Slovakia, Slovakia could slip to 3rd and be seeded below us?

**davidatrb** · 12/10/2015, 10:11 AM

Originally Posted by Nugget

Clutching at straws here, but would I be right in thinking that if Luxembourg somehow get a result against Slovakia, Slovakia could slip to 3rd and be seeded below us?

Yes I think so. Slovakia just lost at home vs Belarus so on the slide a little and should be totally behind us in uefa coefficient.

Is it clear that the point deduction for Croatia will apply to their ranking as best 3rd place team? The results against bottom team is discarded but do points deductions apply? The point deduction was due to an incident against Italy if that matters..

**triggsrevenge** · 12/10/2015, 10:47 AM

I'd take a pop at any of these teams, I would argue that we have had the toughest group of all, and managed a third place spot. So we've nothing to fear from teams that could only manage third in a weaker group.

**nigel-harps1954** · 12/10/2015, 2:00 PM

Hate to burst the optimism bubble, but Cyprus won't beat Bosnia.

**Fizzer** · 12/10/2015, 2:14 PM

You're probably right but Cyprus have already beaten them in Bosnia

**Real ale Madrid** · 12/10/2015, 3:42 PM

Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954

Hate to burst the optimism bubble, but Cyprus won't beat Bosnia.

I would have said the same before the first match between the sides in qualifying. Cyprus only lost to Wales and Belgium with a goal in each game in the last ten mins, it's certainly not a done deal by any means. A win for Cyprus and they are in the playoff unless Israel beat Belgium.

**zero** · 12/10/2015, 4:22 PM

Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

I would have said the same before the first match between the sides in qualifying. Cyprus only lost to Wales and Belgium with a goal in each game in the last ten mins, it's certainly not a done deal by any means. A win for Cyprus and they are in the playoff unless Israel beat Belgium.

bosnia have only picked up 4 points on the road - 3 of those from andorra. lost heavily in israel (3-0), lost 3-1 to belgium but did pick up a 0-0 in wales.

it wouldn't be the end of the world to draw them as seeds in the playoffs, especially if we were away first...

**back of the net** · 12/10/2015, 5:06 PM

Sweden and Russia both 2-0 up in their respective games .....55 mins gone in both

Sweden will be in Playoffs and Russia qualify automatically (provided they avoid defeat)

**Cymro** · 12/10/2015, 5:40 PM

Originally Posted by zero

bosnia have only picked up 4 points on the road - 3 of those from andorra. lost heavily in israel (3-0), lost 3-1 to belgium but did pick up a 0-0 in wales.

it wouldn't be the end of the world to draw them as seeds in the playoffs, especially if we were away first...

I think in the away game in Israel Bosnia had a number of injuries and had to play players out of position. That isn't a good marker for how they will perform tomorrow night.

Bosnia are heavy favourites but Cyprus and Israel both have realistic chances, bearing in mind Belgium have already qualified.

I hope Israel draw with Belgium, Cyprus beat Bosnia and we beat Andorra.....leaving us to top the group.

**tricky_colour** · 12/10/2015, 6:08 PM

So how are things going from Ireland's perspective?
Bit to complicated for me to have a clue atm.
However Russia getting second is good I assume as they are ranked higher.