Republic of Ireland V Gibraltar(A) 4th Sept & Georgia(H) 7th Sept 2015 - Euro 2016 Q

[DannyInvincible]

Did you even see the post were I showed that Long's goal per minute ratio in this campaign is much higher than Robbies?

Hold your horses; it's a difference of 18 minutes in favour of Long. Not quite as definitive as you'd like to suggest, and Stutts demonstrates why it's over-simplistic to rely solely on such a statistic. I'm not against giving Long more time/starts. I'd like to see him play more (and, as I've said, would love for him to take his opportunities and assume Robbie's mantle, not just because I'm a fan of the guy, the way he plays and his attitude, but because it'd be good for the long-term future of Irish international football), but I have the luxury to say that as a supporter. What do I have to lose in making such demanding or expectant declarations? My job isn't on the line. As such, I can totally understand O'Neill's perspective on it.

O'Neill is being safe or conservative in continually opting for Robbie, no doubt, but he has to make the decision he feels will have the highest likelihood of ensuring goals; our qualification and his job depends wholeheartedly upon it. He's going with a proven and record goal-scorer over a player for whom expectations, no matter how many goals you claim you can guarantee he'd score against Gibraltar*, are still grounded more in hope than any sense of form, pedigree or consistency. What I'm saying really is that I can appreciate both sides of the argument; it's all very much debatable. Long is banging on the door, but he needs to step through and throw Robbie out. The goals against Poland and last night helped his case, without doubt, but his omissions from the starting line-up aren't quite at the level of intolerable just yet.

*It's easy to fall into a sort of "absent messiah" type of thinking when things aren't going as you'd like. In recent years, Andy Reid, Steven Reid and Stephen Ireland have all been erected as saviour figures and had their status/ability/potential utility inflated within the Irish media primarily on account of their absence. There's a tendency to assume that what we don't have or what we aren't utilising must be better than what we do have simply by virtue of the fact that what we are utilising isn't getting the results we want. It's very appealing as it gives the impression we have all the answers, but it's an appeal to ignorance and might seem convincing only in the sense that it is unverifiable, so ultimately disprovable too. It's nothing more than an assumption though. You can't guarantee that Shane Long would have scored the same or a greater number of goals against Gibraltar than Robbie's total against them.

At the risk of asking a silly question, but can you elaborate on that a bit? Obviously if we drop points it could very well be a defining game, but otherwise it's just a fairly standard qualification game where three points are required and very much expected. I would have definitely seen other games as being more defining, I wouldn't have gave the statement a second thought if it was made before the Scotland home game, for example.

I haven't seen the RTÉ panel's discussion on the Georgia game (how do others overseas manage since Hola stopped working?), but, from reading some of the comments here, it came across as being very much grounded in negative speculation.

You would assume we can’t give Martin O’Neill a new contract if we finish fourth in this group. That’s the likely outcome if we lose on Monday.

Whilst that may be true, is it remotely likely we will lose tomorrow in the first place? No. We're favourites to win for a reason and I expect we will edge it, without taking the tricky opposition for granted.

If [O’Neill] doesn’t win it, it will be the worst performance of an Irish team in the group for a long, long time. It’s a defining moment for him and his management team.

This is probably one of the toughest groups we've had in a while, no? And sure you could just as easily say, "if O'Neill picks up 5/7 points from the remaining games, it'll be a very respectable performance". It's not completely beyond the realms of possibility, is it? We're on 12 points now; just as a reminder, we finished our last group on 14 points with Trap in charge. Brady regularly jumped to Trap's defence and I'm not sure he would have come out with statements like the above in respect of the Italian. In Stan's ill-fated Euro 2008 qualifying campaign, we finished on 17 points, but also worth noting that there were seven teams in the group on that occasion. We'll see what transpires, but I think talk of dropping points at home to Georgia (who we've already beaten away) is needlessly premature and melodramatic.

[Stuttgart88]

Someone should remind Brady that we did pretty shyte in our last group, clear 4th behind Germany, Sweden and Austria. Someone should call him on such hyperbolic claptrap.

[DeLorean]

Think it'll be the same team as Gibraltar except Coleman in for Christie.

I probably wouldn't hope for much different. Only one I'd like to see included would be Long, but I think it's right to start Keane and with it bound to be a cagey, nervous affair, Whelan will be needed to keep things settled and tight in the first 60.

Georgis arn't great, but they're not bad and they have goals in them. I'd resist any attempt to go all-out-attack from the off.

I think my line up looks more offensive than it is in a way. It's not necessarily what I would go with, just a suggestion to get over the Long/Keane conundrum. You could always play Whelan instead of Hendrick but I just think it's overkill given the opposition we're facing. We should absolutely take the game to them from the start, high tempo and for once look to play with confidence instead of fear. I'm not convinced Georgia do have goals in them either, they got a freakish goal against us in Tbilisi but we were fairly untroubled otherwise. They scored one goal in five games against everybody else excluding Gibraltar. I'm not suggesting taking them lightly obviously but I'd expect more than keeping it tight, that should and will be their mentality. We're by far the better team and playing at home. I think Long, Walters and Hendrick/Hoolahan would be ideal to press high and cause a bit of panic for the Georgians. There would be no shortage of work rate defensively either.

[Fixer82]

Someone should remind Brady that we did pretty shyte in our last group, clear 4th behind Germany, Sweden and Austria. Someone should call him on such hyperbolic claptrap.

I find Brady painfully negative. No wonder he was so liked by Trap.
His disdain for Roy Keane is always bubbling under the surface which clouds his judgement also I feel.

Sadlier is still trying to carve out a career for himself by being argumentative and Dunphy is already plotting the demise of O'Neill's successor, whomever that may be.

Giles and Cunningham are the only ones on the RTÉ panel whose opinions I would give any credence to.

[SwanVsDalton]

I think my line up looks more offensive than it is in a way. It's not necessarily what I would go with, just a suggestion to get over the Long/Keane conundrum. You could always play Whelan instead of Hendrick but I just think it's overkill given the opposition we're facing. We should absolutely take the game to them from the start, high tempo and for once look to play with confidence instead of fear. I'm not convinced Georgia do have goals in them either, they got a freakish goal against us in Tbilisi but we were fairly untroubled otherwise. They scored one goal in five games against everybody else excluding Gibraltar. I'm not suggesting taking them lightly obviously but I'd expect more than keeping it tight, that should and will be their mentality. We're by far the better team and playing at home. I think Long, Walters and Hendrick/Hoolahan would be ideal to press high and cause a bit of panic for the Georgians. There would be no shortage of work rate defensively either.

Sure, but if I was to replace anyone it would be McCarthy. I'd rather have Whelan sitting and protecting the CBs if the full-backs are to push on. I don't think any of them do as defensively sound a job at the moment than Whelan.

And honestly, I think overkill is very possible - we've been caught cold at home before plenty of times and I still think Georgia are capable in front of goal. For me, if we keep a clean sheet, we'll win the game because I reckon we'll get at least one goal.

[Crosby87]

Did you guys see the roy keane thing with the painting? That is hilarious.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/odd/roy...ting-1-3877941

[IsMiseSean]

And honestly, I think overkill is very possible - we've been caught cold at home before plenty of times and I still think Georgia are capable in front of goal. For me, if we keep a clean sheet, we'll win the game because I reckon we'll get at least one goal.

Georgia looked decent on the break against Scotland. Broke away a few times in the 1st half and should have scored just lacked the composure.

[paul_oshea]

the defining game is always the next most important game or the most important game looking back by the end of the qualifying campaign.

to me regardless unless we get to a play off his most defining will be Poland away. he will have done something no one else has achieved in a very a long time, if we beat Poland.

[paul_oshea]

Georgia looked decent on the break against Scotland. Broke away a few times in the 1st half and should have scored just lacked the composure.

they did and they looked decent against Germany at home In the second half on the break as well.

[tricky_colour]

the defining game is always the next most important game or the most important game looking back by the end of the qualifying campaign.

to me regardless unless we get to a play off his most defining will be Poland away. he will have done something no one else has achieved in a very a long time, if we beat Poland.

Could be quite interesting if Poland are have nothing to play for ie they will get second place irregardless
and have nothing to play for, mind you that might make them play even better, on the other hand they
might not be too bothered if they lose

[paul_oshea]

Ya I meant though that the last game against Poland would not be a nothing game, unless scotland completely capitulate the Poland game, assuming a win tomorrow, will be a big one.

[tricky_colour]

Yea this game is gonna be no pushover.

Wondering if Georgia can still nab 3rd spot?

I think they can if they beat German and the rest.

[DannyInvincible]

Yea this game is gonna be no pushover.

Wondering if Georgia can still nab 3rd spot?

I think they can if they beat German and the rest.

Mathematically, they can. They're six points behind us with nine points to play for.

[Fixer82]

People keep saying we've only beaten two teams ranked higher than us in 14 years. Holland is one obviously but I can't figure out the other one?? Anyone?

[Charlie Darwin]

People keep saying we've only beaten two teams ranked higher than us in 14 years. Holland is one obviously but I can't figure out the other one?? Anyone?

Slovakia

[tricky_colour]

Mathematically, they can. They're six points behind us with nine points to play for.

Yes, they can get 15 points in total which would put them above Poland who have 14 if Poland lost all their matches.
However that would put us on 15 too. However if they beat us they could I think actually get 2nd place!!
Requires a storming finish from Gibraltar though!
So in theory they could I think finish 2nd.
German win all, Poland lose all Gibraltar win all Scotland just get 3 points from Poland

Finishing like this due to Gibraltar beating us 10-1 in Dublin!!

Germany 25
Gibraltar 15
Ireland 15
Poland 14
Scotland 14
Gibraltar 9

[Fixer82]

Slovakia

Nice one. I remember them not being great though. Whereas Holland in 2001 had some definite superstars

[Crosby87]

I'll ask again AND include the Roy Painting thing, so we all be Hindu.
What are your best starting?

[tricky_colour]

People keep saying we've only beaten two teams ranked higher than us in 14 years. Holland is one obviously but I can't figure out the other one?? Anyone?

It should get easier as we slide down the rankings more teams ranked higher than us!

[tricky_colour]

I'll ask again AND include the Roy Painting thing, so we all be Hindu.
What are your best starting?

Quite hard to say what will be the best line up.

Plucking the names out of a hat is the way to go!