Predictions for remaining Group D games

**Charlie Darwin** · 01/04/2015, 5:10 PM

Originally Posted by jbyrne

well, they didn't learn the lesson of the last min Ibaraki goal did they? maybe third time lucky

sorry, fourth time lucky.... Keoghs goal in 2012

I wonder if the Germans have a phrase: "Never write off the Irish." Probably not actually. "Pixieheads."

**SwanVsDalton** · 01/04/2015, 7:26 PM

Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin

I wonder if the Germans have a phrase: "Never write off the Irish."

More likely it's "never underwrite the Irish".

**nigel-harps1954** · 01/04/2015, 7:36 PM

Draw with Poland and Scotland and lose to Germany. Beat Georgia and Gibraltar but miss out on play-offs.

Final table:

Germany 23 pts
Poland 19 pts
Scotland 19 pts
Ireland 16 pts
Georgia 6 pts
Gibraltar 0 pts

**Eminence Grise** · 01/04/2015, 8:56 PM

Originally Posted by SwanVsDalton

More likely it's "never underwrite the Irish".

That's one of those posts that make me wish I wore a hat so I could doff it in your direction.

**Stuttgart88** · 01/04/2015, 9:19 PM

I usually reserve that accolade for you your eminence. Can we just cancel the April POTM award and give it to SVD now?

**Stuttgart88** · 01/04/2015, 9:25 PM

Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954

Draw with Poland and Scotland and lose to Germany. Beat Georgia and Gibraltar but miss out on play-offs.

Final table:

Germany 23 pts
Poland 19 pts
Scotland 19 pts
Ireland 16 pts
Georgia 6 pts
Gibraltar 0 pts

if your maths is correct, it just goes to show you how much there is still to play for. Do sh1t and still only lose out by one good result out of 5, ok realistically 3, games. That's the context for the jubilation after a very late equaliser.

**DeLorean** · 01/04/2015, 9:58 PM

Yeah a win against Scotland and we'll more than likely be joint second by the time Germany come to Dublin in the penultimate round of games. Poland go to Hampden that evening so whatever happens there we'll definitely be in the mix come the final game. It's even possible we could be guaranteed at least third after losing to Germany and going to Poland with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Obviously a lot of football to be played between now and then but once we beat Scotland we really are going to be very hard to catch for third at least. Just effing beat Scotland!!

**nigel-harps1954** · 01/04/2015, 10:37 PM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

if your maths is correct, it just goes to show you how much there is still to play for. Do sh1t and still only lose out by one good result out of 5, ok realistically 3, games. That's the context for the jubilation after a very late equaliser.

Simply worked out realistic outcomes of each of the rest of the games in the group and that was the result. My maths is excellent thank you very much

**Crosby87** · 01/04/2015, 11:15 PM

[QUOTE=DeLorean;1812042]Yeah a win against Scotland and we'll more than likely be joint second by the time Germany come to Dublin in the penultimate round of games./QUOTE]

Penultimate. Great word. Good scrabble word.

**geysir** · 02/04/2015, 1:16 PM

Poland beat Geo,Gib,Irl but lose to Germany and Scotland = 19 points

Scotland beat Geo Gib and Poland but lose to Germany and draw with ireland 20 points

Ireland beat Geo, Gib draw with Scotland but lose to Germany and Poland 16 points

Even if Ireland were to beat Scotland, then Scotland would still take the 3rd spot. Only if Scotland collapse totally will we finish ahead of them.
Also in that case where we would beat Scotland, we would then face a very determined Polish team out for 2nd spot, would certainly nail us in Warsaw, with McClean getting sent off after 10 minutes.

It's grim.

**nigel-harps1954** · 02/04/2015, 1:30 PM

It's quite simple really, Ireland need to beat all of Poland, Scotland, Georgia and Gibraltar. A draw with Germany would potentially see Ireland top the group after that......but obviously, none of this will happen.

**DeLorean** · 02/04/2015, 2:09 PM

Originally Posted by geysir

Poland beat Geo,Gib,Irl but lose to Germany and Scotland = 19 points

Scotland beat Geo Gib and Poland but lose to Germany and draw with ireland 20 points

Ireland beat Geo, Gib draw with Scotland but lose to Germany and Poland 16 points

Even if Ireland were to beat Scotland, then Scotland would still take the 3rd spot. Only if Scotland collapse totally will we finish ahead of them.
Also in that case where we would beat Scotland, we would then face a very determined Polish team out for 2nd spot, would certainly nail us in Warsaw, with McClean getting sent off after 10 minutes.

It's grim.

I would look at it from a more positive angle but we simply have to beat Scotland or I'll join yourself and AB down in Doomsday Land. If we do win that, which we clearly can, then...

-We'll beat Gibraltar and Georgia and have decent monentum
-Scotland will be under severe pressure to win in Tblisi with their confidence dented
-Poland, having already lost in Germany, will be desperate for a result in Edinburgh. Could easily be another draw but any result brings it's own advantages/disadvantages
-We can get something in Poland. I think, as a footballing nation, they tend to be fairly flimsy when the pressure is on and they look pretty average in any case. It's also possible that a draw will do them to secure second and a draw will do us to secure third.

We really need to just beat Scotland and take it from there.

**paul_oshea** · 02/04/2015, 3:05 PM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

if your maths is correct, it just goes to show you how much there is still to play for. Do sh1t and still only lose out by one good result out of 5, ok realistically 3, games. That's the context for the jubilation after a very late equaliser.

Stutts you're still not looking in from the context of experience, ability and previous results. We don't win these big games its as simple as that, if we did, then yes of course everything would be rosey in the garden. It's all about context.

**DeLorean** · 02/04/2015, 3:22 PM

And what context of experience do Scotland have from the recent past? Maybe you should look at that instead.

Why is the Armenia game just ignored completely in relation to these contexts of experience? We played them in a winner takes all (i.e. gets a playoff place) game at the end of the 2012 qualifying? Granted they're not a recognised force in European football but neither are Scotland. Armenia were after putting eight past Slovakia (away) and Macedonia in their previous two games and were a fellow contender in the group. We beat them, therefore winning a vital game that we needed a result in.

**geysir** · 02/04/2015, 4:27 PM

It wasn't the game against the inexperienced Armenia which mattered most, it was that miraculous day when we came away with a point in Moscow and later that evening watched Armenia unexpectedly roast Slovakia. After that day's results, we were full of confidence that we would do the rest. 'We' meaning the more knowledgeable football fans

I know permutations exist atm, but I don't need to construct a distant hope out of the permutations in order to deal with the reality of our poor situation in the group.
I feel similar to when we lost to France Eur 2008, I felt really disappointed and that our chance was all but lost, but it didn't mean I wasn't glued to the watching the last game.

**DeLorean** · 02/04/2015, 5:04 PM

Doesn't matter... we beat a direct rival in the group in a vital match. If loose stats/records are going to be thrown about, they should at least be accurate.

You say "our poor situation in the group". Fair enough if you see it that way and obviously it could, and should, be better, but until we fail to beat Scotland I don't see them as being in any better a situation really. They've won their home match against us so that's job done as far as they're concerned which we have yet to do, but our bonus point in Germany means that we can win back pole position in the battle for third at least. That'd be a good start but obviously it's going to be a tough ask to win back pole position for second from the Poles, who you'd almost forget are in pole position in the group full stop. Damn those Poles, it's almost as if they feel a natural entitlement to pole position.

**Stuttgart88** · 02/04/2015, 6:28 PM

Paul, if you were told at any point in the last 12 months "beat Scotland in Dublin to secure a play off", would you have taken it? I would, all day long. 2012 was an anomaly, qualifying without a good home win (point taken about Armenia though). My point above was simple enough and not requiring context. In Nigel's scenario we missed out by one result despite not actually getting any really good results. Just one better than usual result will probably do.

If we beat Scotland at home I'd be genuinely surprised if we don't get third. I wouldn't bet on us beating Scotland but I wouldn't be fearing them either.

**geysir** · 02/04/2015, 7:18 PM

Originally Posted by DeLorean

Doesn't matter... we beat a direct rival in the group in a vital match. If loose stats/records are going to be thrown about, they should at least be accurate.

That's a blatantly false accusation and a poor attempt to throw a shoddy insult in my direction, back that one up or else it's pistols at dawn

**DeLorean** · 02/04/2015, 7:43 PM

It was actually in Paul's direction really, in response to "we don't win these big games it's as simple as that", which you kind of backed up. I know the Armenia game sounds like a bit of a stretch but it's surely relevant when we're discussing the possibility of beating the 4th seeds in our group. Pistols at dawn sounds awesome! The Optimists v The Pessimists, we just need to find a realist to referree!