First Division Betting 2015

PP latest odds:

Wexford 11/4
Harps 3/1
Athlone 7/2
UCD 4/1
Shels 9/2
Waterford 50/1
Cobh 50/1
Cabinteely 100/1

Some big swings from the 1st set of odds

Thanks, Sam

It's hard to understand how we're still in front of Harps in the betting. Stephen Hunt must be going to sign for the Youths in the summer or something.

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Even stranger that boyles still have us as favourites

Bet365 is even stranger yet with Athlone and Shels still predicted 1st and 2nd.

Athlone 5/2
Shels 11/4
Wexford 9/4
Harps 5/1
UCD 8/1
Waterford 50/1
Cabinteely 250/1
Cobh 500/1

I'd love to throw a fiver on Cobh now for the craic, but I'm not that brave to throw away the cost of a pint.

Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954

Bet365 is even stranger yet with Athlone and Shels still predicted 1st and 2nd.

Betting odds aren't predictive. They're just tools to make maximum money for the company (at the lowest possible risk).

Originally Posted by Dodge

Betting odds aren't predictive. They're just tools to make maximum money for the company (at the lowest possible risk).

Okay, okay...favourites then. Jeesh..

Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954

Okay, okay...favourites then. Jeesh..

Jeesh, all you like, it's an important distinction.

The two aren't mutually exclusive. If the odds don't reflect the probability of the event, the bookie won't make any money so yes, they are predictive to a very significant degree.

Originally Posted by paykanti

The two aren't mutually exclusive. If the odds don't reflect the probability of the event, the bookie won't make any money so yes, they are predictive to a very significant degree.

They're not predictive at all. You can use it as an indicator if you like but they're not predictive.

What is the correct spelling of pedant, please?

Bookies will keep odds out a bit on Harps to draw in a few quid on them hoping they will drift off for one of the "favourites" to overtake them in the business end of the league.

They'd be plain silly to make Harps evens for example so early in the season.

Either way, at least Ollie and the lads are doing something right to be cut from 25/1 to 3/1.

Anyone who thinks the bookies are giving a whole lot of thought or strategy to pricing up the first division is wrong.
It's not going to attract money based on name or sentiment in the way the EPL or Champions League might.
And the bookies odds do in general reflect the predictions made by their models. I doubt bet 365 are sitting on a massive loss on any team which they are trying to hedge by offering odds that don't reflect their predicted outcome. I say this as someone who has worked in the industry.