QuoteMarshall, Hutton, R. Martin, Whittaker, Hanley, Forrest, D. Fletcher, Brown, Naismith, S. Fletcher, Ritchie start for Scotland.
yes stutts these are the clear lines that seperate the real fans from the big dayers.Originally Posted by Stuttgart88
THE REAL FANS WILL ALWAYS CHOOSE THE LESS GLAMOROUS ONE.
I'm a bloke,I'm an ocker
And I really love your knockers,I'm a labourer by day,
I **** up all me pay,Watching footy on TV,
Just feed me more VB,Just pour my beer,And get my smokes, And go away
Marshall, Hutton, R. Martin, Whittaker, Hanley, Forrest, D. Fletcher, Brown, Naismith, S. Fletcher, Ritchie start for Scotland.
That was rapid.
Poland are all over this game
And an equaliser
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
Sorry for long post! But it just got INTERESTING!!
Ireland are tied on points with Poland, both teams meeting in Poland in the last match.
This leaves Ireland with the following options let me know if im missing anything:
Beat Poland or a high score draw
The easy way to qualify now is simply beat Poland or a 2-2 draw or higher. If the teams are level on points then it will go to head to head. Both teams drew 1-1 in Dublin already - so a 2-2 draw or higher would put Ireland through on away goals. Even in the case of a three way tie (if Germany lose against Georgia) 2-2 (or any draw in fact) would be enough for Ireland to qualify in 2nd based on the matches involving the three nations.
A no score/low score draw
A nil-nil would almost certainly mean Poland would be 2nd on the away goal they scored in Dublin. A one-one should put them second based on goal difference. So Ireland would likely be 3rd with a no score/low score draw. The one exception would be if Germany are beaten by Georgia then a three way tie would put Ireland ahead of Poland and firmly in 1st and automatic qualification (in a three way tie - Ireland and Poland qualify and Germany are in playoffs, I think).
But realistically a no score/low score draw would see Ireland go into a play-off against the other third placed teams - seeded based on UEFA co-efficients. A draw would give Ireland 27322 coefficient points. This would be enough to rank ahead of Israel, Slovenia, Turkey, Norway (assuming they don't beat Italy) and both Albania or Denmark.
In that case I cannot see Ireland not being seeded for the draw and avoiding Ukraine, Sweden or Netherlands (if they can overhaul Turkey for 3rd in Group A).
If Norway do beat Italy though then Croatia are in the playoffs instead of Norway and Ireland will not be seeded ahead of Croatia. It would then become very important that Turkey hold off Netherlands.
Defeat
If Ireland lose to Poland they are obviously still in the play-offs. It would make seeding more difficult though. A defeat would give them in the region of 26902. This opens the door for Turkey to out rank Ireland, Turkey have a potential 27013 coefficient points. Denmark with 27140 coefficient points would just edge ahead of us for seeding. So in this case Ireland may only be seeded ahead of Israel, Slovenia and Norway (assuming again they don't beat Italy). This wouldn't be good enough to be top seed and would mean a play-off against one of Turkey/Netherlands, Ukraine/Hungary, Sweden or Denmark.
To avoid this we need Turkey to slip up against Iceland[H] or Czech[A] but not so bad that it lets Netherlands back up to 3rd. Or we need Albania to fail to beat Armenia. A win would put Albania out of 3rd and in to 2nd with Denmark replacing them in 3rd. In this scenario where Ireland lose then Denmark would be ranked ahead. Armenia are bottom of the group with only 2 points - but those draws came against Serbia and Denmark and all their defeats but one were by single goals. So it's certainly within their reach to draw with Albania and keep them in 3rd.
Matches to watch.
Poland vs Ireland - Ireland have their destination in their own hands with this.
Ukraine vs Spain - A win for Ukraine would put them top placed 3rd place and they would qualify automatically. In a play-off situation Hungary might be a better option than Ukraine. Hungary and Ukraine are at the moment top 2 in the 3rd placed teams.
Armenia vs Albania - Albania are 1 point behind Denmark, but Ireland want Albania to stay in 3rd because of their much inferior UEFA co-efficient which may affect the seedings. A draw here for Albania wouldn't be enough to topple Denmark as Denmark would hold 2nd on head to head results. So anything but a win for Albania would suit Ireland.
Turkey vs Czech and Iceland vs Turkey - Turkey have a better head to head than Netherlands so a win and a draw would guarantee they hold onto 3rd place. But anything better than a win and a draw will give them enough coefficient points to threaten Ireland's seeding. So Ireland are hoping for exactly one win and one draw from these games for Turkey.
Italy vs Norway - If Norway lose or draw it opens the door for Croatia to drop them into 3rd place in the group. It also opens the door for Ireland to jump them in the UEFA coefficient system. This would help Ireland to be seeded because we may be seeded ahead of Norway, but no chance of being seeded ahead of Croatia.
Croatia vs Bulgaria and Malta vs Croatia - Two wins here for Croatia would help them crawl out of 3rd spot if Norway slip up as hoped.
Israel vs Belgium - Israel (3rd in Group B) have two points on Bosnia (in 4th). Assuming they win against Cyprus then a draw against Belgium could see Israel hold on to 3rd. Israel would not be seeded ahead of Ireland, Bosnia would be. Bosnia have Wales[H] and Cyprus[A] left to play.
Last edited by davidatrb; 09/10/2015 at 11:29 AM. Reason: denmark pts
I dunno how anyone from Scotland could watch international football ever again after the last month they've had, iced by a final minute of injury time knockout blow. The agonizing way the goal developed. Speechless at the thought of it.
yes though us winning against Germany really meant they were hanging by a thread anyways. Max points they could have got were 17 equalling Poland so they wouldve needed us to beat Poland to have any chance of third. Still heart breaking for them but it was in Georgia, once again, where they really blew.
Scots are chokers. a nation of chokers.
interesting post by davidtarb. is there no chance for Ireland to be the best placed 3rd team?
I think we can beat Poland.
Long Live King Kenny
Add to that they'v come from 1-0 down after 2 minutes to be beating Poland after an hour with two superb goals - and then news filters through that we've taken the lead against Germany despite barely having a touch of the ball all game.
You'd be sick.
That post by David is one of the best ever here. The foot.ie glory days are back.
I was having a quick glance over the tables. Although the 3rd place teams can change but a few of the bottom place sides can change too that would have a bearing on the final points positions also.
Serbia & Armenia
Kazakstan & Latvia
Belarus, Luxembourg & Macedonia
Faroe Islands & Greece
Liechtenstein & Moldova
Bulgaria, Azerbijan & Malta
Long Live King Kenny
Couldn't agree more. Fella should have his own sub forum.
Opponent watch: Germany lost last night.
I really hope that Israel can turn this around. It won't be good news if Bosnia are 3rd and Israel 4th. As it stands Israel are now 1 point ahead with Belgium to play, Bosnia have Cyprus left plus about 20 minutes of the current games ...
If we have Bosnia 3rd it will be Ukraine, Sweden, Croatia and Bosnia seeded.
Then Ireland, Slovenia, Turkey and Albania.
A lot can change and probably will.. probably is that we dont want anything to change, just everything stay as it is!
Its all gone to pot now ....
Isn't it more likely that Croatia will finish second and dump Norway into the play-offs?
Croatia are two points behind, but host Malta next while Norway travel to Italy
standing.jpg
3rd placed teams that are provisionally seeded are in green, 3rd placed teams that dont look like being seeded according to current coefficients are red. Some other teams that could potentially finish in 3rd are included. Hungary have the golden ticket i think.
We have a chance to replace Croatia as seeded if the qualify in 2nd putting Norway in 3rd. I suppose Israel could still mathematically finish ahead of Bosnia too. Still hoping that Turkey can keep Netherlands behind them - a draw against Poland would keep our coefficient higher than Denmark and Turkey - a defeat and we are taking a risk.
Do you fancy that we could beat Ukraine, Croatia, Bosnia or Sweden in a play off for Euro 2016 ..... I'll take my chances against Poland, hopefully O'Neil goes all out to win the match, I hope he realises what is at stake.
Can you email the FAI just in case? (Actually.)
Great work and many thanks for the insightful and enlightening contributions.
Yes but you could also say that it is more likely that Netherlands will be 3rd instead of Turkey, or that Denmark will fall into 3rd instead of Albania. Or even if Turkey do hold on to 3rd, they could leap us in the coefficient system, by my calculations.
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