They think it's all over......

[green goblin]

Be great if it was. Its not.

Well perhaps not quite yet. But very, very soon, please God. People are talking about weeks and months rather than decades.

[dortie]

Well perhaps not quite yet. But very, very soon, please God. People are talking about weeks and months rather than decades.

And what exactly is going to happen in weeks and months ??? The DUP and SF sitting together in a Northern Ireland government ???

If SF try to persuade the IRA to disband do you think the majority of them will say 'Aye sure no bother Gerry and Martin...why not.. sure we have got a new Stormont'

[drummerboy]

Well at least now they are trying to sort something out by talking. 15 or so years ago, every time you turned on the tv/radio there was another atrocity, which lead to a counter atrocity and it went on week in, week out. Crazy stuff.

[Closed Account 2]

Don’t think the IRA/Real IRA etc (or for that matter any major terrorist outfit in NI) will ever go back to the level of violence that happened in thru the 70s and 80s. I think the major reasons for this the current status of terrorism. Back in the 80s and early 90s a large amount of the Western (but non-UK) public (esp. in the US), even some governments, tended to view the IRA as "freedom fighters". Indeed many groups which would now be considered terrorists (e.g. Afghani Mujahideen, Central American Contras) were deemed freedom fighters. Basically groups which were broadly speaking Socialist/Communist were considered terrorists (e.g. Italian Red Brigade, German Beider-Mienhoff (spelt wrong)), groups which were anti-socialist/anti-communist were considered freedom fighters (e.g. Afghan Mujahideen, Nicaraguan Contras/Anti-Sandinistas). Groups which were neither (like the IRA) were viewed differently by different countries. Since 9/11 that’s all changed... now almost every group is viewed as a terrorist organisation by the US Government (and most countries). Similarly, having experienced 9/11, many US citizens who might have supported the IRA are now less likely to do so.

There are other reasons too, such as the movement of government towards an EU system of local states/counties having more autonomy. In 15-20 years decisions that affect the people in NI will either be taken in the counties (Fermanagh, Armagh etc) or Brussels; not London or Dublin. Also the generally positive experience of the current lull in violence will make people reluctant to go back to the scenes of the 70s and 80s.

There will probably always be groups called the IRA and UVF etc, but they will end up being more about organised crime, drugs, turf-wars, racketeering, etc and not really concerned with a political ideal/goal. Arguably both have started to drift that way anyway.

[dortie]

Don’t think the IRA/Real IRA etc (or for that matter any major terrorist outfit in NI) will ever go back to the level of violence that happened in thru the 70s and 80s. I think the major reasons for this the current status of terrorism. Back in the 80s and early 90s a large amount of the Western (but non-UK) public (esp. in the US), even some governments, tended to view the IRA as "freedom fighters". Indeed many groups which would now be considered terrorists (e.g. Afghani Mujahideen, Central American Contras) were deemed freedom fighters. Basically groups which were broadly speaking Socialist/Communist were considered terrorists (e.g. Italian Red Brigade, German Beider-Mienhoff (spelt wrong)), groups which were anti-socialist/anti-communist were considered freedom fighters (e.g. Afghan Mujahideen, Nicaraguan Contras/Anti-Sandinistas). Groups which were neither (like the IRA) were viewed differently by different countries. Since 9/11 that’s all changed... now almost every group is viewed as a terrorist organisation by the US Government (and most countries). Similarly, having experienced 9/11, many US citizens who might have supported the IRA are now less likely to do so.

There are other reasons too, such as the movement of government towards an EU system of local states/counties having more autonomy. In 15-20 years decisions that affect the people in NI will either be taken in the counties (Fermanagh, Armagh etc) or Brussels; not London or Dublin. Also the generally positive experience of the current lull in violence will make people reluctant to go back to the scenes of the 70s and 80s.

There will probably always be groups called the IRA and UVF etc, but they will end up being more about organised crime, drugs, turf-wars, racketeering, etc and not really concerned with a political ideal/goal. Arguably both have started to drift that way anyway.

And your an expert on domestic politics and not biased in the slightest.
As for 9/11....to compare Muslim extremists to the IRA is beyond a Joke. If republican intentions were to kill innocent people there would be very few people living in the North of this country.

[green goblin]

There will probably always be groups called the IRA and UVF etc, but they will end up being more about organised crime, drugs, turf-wars, racketeering, etc and not really concerned with a political ideal/goal. Arguably both have started to drift that way anyway.

In the forner Soviet Union, former KGB are now running many gangs. The collpase of the established order left a huge void, readily filled by oppurtunists. The same happened, to a greater or lesser extent, in every country that the Brits finally lowered the flag on- the post collonial ruling elites in countries like Uganda, give afair example of how bad it can get.
The war in the North gave some people's lives a dreadful, terrible meaning. Some people, of whatever persuasion, identified themselves as person based solely on where they stood on the issue, and what they were prepared to do about it. A small but significant bunch of people may have trouble adjusting to this, and will find peace, even an uneasy peace, hard to live with.
The drugs thing will do it. Direct Action on Drugs was never a moral crusade, but was about cuting cashflow to the other side. Statin ghr bleedin' obvious, in the post 911 world there's obviously less charidee from misty eyed yanks ready to support the struggle, so the money will have to come from elsewhere too.

[Duncan Gardner]

Edmundo- if you're talking about 'subsidiarity' (the principle of government being carried out at the most appropriately local level), then it already exists on Fermanagh District Council. They look after parks and empty the bins. They aren't likely to be entrusted with social services funding in the near future. This is mainly because the scale is too small, rather than the ongoing local conflict, mistrust, etc.

That will continue to be run from Belfast and London, not Brussels.

Dortie- you seem to be arguing that because paramilitaries haven't murdered all the innocents, they don't murder innocents. Do explain?

[dortie]

Dortie- you seem to be arguing that because paramilitaries haven't murdered all the innocents, they don't murder innocents. Do explain?

Never said no innocents were killed, said they never intentionally went out to kill innocents.. if they did there would be 1000 times the numbers of deaths.

My point being....flying a plane full of people into a commercial building is Intentional....!

[Duncan Gardner]

My point being blowing up La Mon house or Oxford Street (respectively restaurant and bus station, not military camps) was deliberate and planned in the certain knowledge they would kill or injure civilians. Ditto the shootings at Loughinisland or Greysteel, or hundreds of other atrocities we could list.

The main difference to 9/11 is scale, not intent.

[dortie]

My point being blowing up La Mon house or Oxford Street (respectively restaurant and bus station, not military camps) was deliberate and planned in the certain knowledge they would kill or injure civilians. Ditto the shootings at Loughinisland or Greysteel, or hundreds of other atrocities we could list.

The main difference to 9/11 is scale, not intent.

This being a football forum Im reluctant to get into a post to post debate on both our opinions on the situation here, its obvious yours is entirely opposite to mine.

Only the IRA know the real reasons behind such attacks and their motives for bombing them.

However to classify the IRA with Muslim extremists in the same context is ******. Killing members of the protestant community was never their Intentions in my opinion.. if it was....do you seriously think there would be a protestant estate standing in the North ?

[Duncan Gardner]

Dortie- PM for ye, OK.

[max power]

"these peas are nice"

when ever i hear his name, that is the only thiing i can think of, that and all grey

[Peadar]

Remember the one where he smoked a joint by mistake?
"Norma, the sky! It's full of colours! There's grey and... another grey. And a new, different sort of grey!"

I'm still laughing at that.
Is it available on DVD or anything?
Poor old Norma got an awful doing.

when ever i hear his name, that is the only thiing i can think of, that and all grey

It was classic stuff alright.
He truely was the "spitting image" of him.

[SÓC]

I dont buy the line that the IRA never intended to kill innocent people.

Blowing up a pub in Guilford was always going to kill innocent people, letting more innocent people go down for it just added to the pain.

Forcing a Civilian Catholic man to drive a JCB full of C4 into a British Army base while his wife and daughter were held hostage at gun point. That man was compleatly innocent yet the IRA in their wisdom decided he should die.

Killing a fellow Irish man Garda McCabe because he had to cheek to try to stop them robbing a Post Office.
Many others as some have highlighted.

Then againt there were IRA attacks that gave very specific warnings which were ignored by some (Canary Warf for one).

They just didnt always have a such a conscience

[Fair_play_boy]

Cork is about as far away from the North as you can get in Ireland, not only in terms of miles, but in terms of awareness of what it was like. So I am cautious about anything I say, because it is so easy to get it wrong, and disrespect the people you are talking about.
As a child I remember the riots which preceded the arrival of the British army. The night they landed I was in a caravan park in Ardmore in Ratland. The following morning, almost half the caravans had pulled out, basically every one of the UK registered cars was gone.
Since the start of these most recent troubles (there were other periods of bloody slaughter over the centuries) there have been many times when a solution was rumoured. I think that the people in the North have become really guarded about building up hope, and if I lived there, I think I would be the same. If this is the final solution, and god knows the people of the North deserve it, it will be a supreme irony, because it will have come during the DUP's watch. Of all political groups in the North, they were always least likely, IMO, to play any part in a long term solution. No wonder history is so hard to study!

[liam88]

I dont buy the line that the IRA never intended to kill innocent people.

Blowing up a pub in Guilford was always going to kill innocent people, letting more innocent people go down for it just added to the pain.

Forcing a Civilian Catholic man to drive a JCB full of C4 into a British Army base while his wife and daughter were held hostage at gun point. That man was compleatly innocent yet the IRA in their wisdom decided he should die.

Killing a fellow Irish man Garda McCabe because he had to cheek to try to stop them robbing a Post Office.
Many others as some have highlighted.

Then againt there were IRA attacks that gave very specific warnings which were ignored by some (Canary Warf for one).

They just didnt always have a such a conscience

Like I said before-I was born in 88 so only remember the tail end and never experienced many of the things you guys have.
Ma mam's mate (Catholic) got shot by the IRA for driving a jeep (think through Armagh), I got off a train during a bomb scare, I remember a London bus and Omagh both being bombed as well as the Mortar into MI5; very limited as you'll agree.
So I'm not as experienced to pass judgement but living near Guildford/Aldershot people are still p*ssed about it-sounds like the IRA did some disgusting stuff but you can never take away what the scum did in the Rising Sun Pub.
Only read about that but that was the ultimate low of human action-as was the execution of a 17 year old lad for being a Catholic.#
Can't imagine what it must have been like for victims families seeing their sons/fathers/mothers/siblings/families murders walk cheering out of Long Keash-whatever the persuasion.
As you said though SOC the IRA were awful to-mabye everyone was as bad as each other?
PEace sounds like it's for the best-Easter this year the IRA made a speech commiting themselves to freeing Ireland so really not sure about disbanding now?
Hopefully the IRA will disband followed by the UdA and then RIRA/
RHC etc. will follow suite; Christmas 2004 could be the end of paramilaterism in Northern Ireland-we can live in hope

[dortie]

Hopefully the IRA will disband followed by the UdA and then RIRA/
RHC etc. will follow suite; Christmas 2004 could be the end of paramilaterism in Northern Ireland-we can live in hope

You sound like you are trying to educate yourself on the history of the North which is to be commended, but what you post is pure hope and does not represent reality. The media may potray the problem as being solved but it isnt, its got better but its not solved.

As for the IRA disbanding, you should read more about republicanism and its ideals before you talk yourself into that belief. The main cause of the conflict has not been removed, and although SF are trying to go down the political path for the remedy there will always be those who will not move from their traditional beliefs, like it or not.

I hope I will live to see peace but personally I dont believe there will be 'total' peace until the main cause of conflict has been removed.

[liam88]

You sound like you are trying to educate yourself on the history of the North which is to be commended,

Cheers Dortie-like I said, to young to experience it firs thand so getting most of my background from books, internet, old news stories and you guys

but what you post is pure hope and does not represent reality. The media may potray the problem as being solved but it isnt, its got better but its not solved.

As for the IRA disbanding, you should read more about republicanism and its ideals before you talk yourself into that belief. The main cause of the conflict has not been removed, and although SF are trying to go down the political path for the remedy there will always be those who will not move from their traditional beliefs, like it or not.

Sad buit true I guess-like I said you know a lot more about it than I do obviously so I'm taking in your judgement. I knew ma post was pretty over-optomistic....

[Duncan Gardner]

As long as you acknowledge the role of the Loyalists

The post you quoted was me acknowledging- highlighting- atrocity by unionist paramilitaries!

their previous illegal occupation

It's legitimised de facto by hundreds of years living there...

presume then you agree with the Israelis & Yanks who are currently indulged in similar 'moral' occupation?

No- why would I do that? Of course, if I could borrow your mate Dr Who's Tardis and nip back to 1169 or whenever, I might deplore ol' Dermot McMurrough inviting his mate Strongbow over for a ruck. You know, with the benefit of hindsight and that

Sadly,the 'Planters' are living up to their name

Why- are they planting somewhere else?