Debate - Future of Youth Development in Irish Football

[Stuttgart88]

For example at Euro 2020 the Danish side that got to the SF of the Euro's the vast majority of those players left Denmark at 16/17 years old, obviously the odd exception will exist but the majority left at an age most Irish players leave.

Is that true?

Regardless, I think it's generally accepted that lack of coaching resources and lack of quality minutes on the pitch at underage levels reduces the chances of further achievement. I've always looked at the relative competitiveness of our underage teams as a sign we're doing something right but we've been waiting a long time for this to translate into being more competitive at senior level. Obviously having good pathways into senior football is an issue but it's all part of a big systemic weakness imho.

[CSAD]

Is that true?

Regardless, I think it's generally accepted that lack of coaching resources and lack of quality minutes on the pitch at underage levels reduces the chances of further achievement. I've always looked at the relative competitiveness of our underage teams as a sign we're doing something right but we've been waiting a long time for this to translate into being more competitive at senior level. Obviously having good pathways into senior football is an issue but it's all part of a big systemic weakness imho.

It is, what stood out to me was the career decision they made, going to places they would develop as opposed to going down the same route every time.

Schmichael - left at 16
Christiansen - left at 16
Andersen - Left at 17
Eriksen - left at 16
Hjorbjerg - left at 17
Dolberg - left at 17
etc

You see that is said and yet that hasn't been reflected at underage level, you'd think there of all places it would be reflected and Irish sides would be destroyed but that doesnt seem to happen. This is why I am critical of the media because if this WAS happening, we'd never hear the end of it. The fact they will never mention the underage results is because its a direct contradiction to the narrative they are trying to create and instead are just trying to pull the wool over peoples eyes as most people wont do research on the topic and just take what the media say at face value, its a short term gain for the media but it will have long term ramifications as once the underage results eventually start to result in Ireland improving as a NT they'll have to explain why Ireland have improved if things are so bad at grassroots level...they wont have a leg to stand on and ill be laughing my ass off!


The issue progress has been slow because most of our young players have had to learn on the job as we are paying the price for nothing coming through from 1993-1997 which had led to progress being slower than we would hope. Once our young players get into the 24-28 bracket I think progress will start to become a lot quicker I suspect.

But on paper the progress is definetly there, in the last 4 years the value of the Irish squad has increased by over 100m euro and I would suspect that will only continue to grow especially when you look at the age profile of the squad.

[Stuttgart88]

So, 10 full time academy coaches is enough?!

[CSAD]

So, 10 full time academy coaches is enough?!

It's not enough. What I'm saying is suggesting that this is the reason Ireland have been failing is just blatantly lying to people. It a countries success was down to the amount of full time comes at underage level the likes of Estonia, Latvia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan would have a better national side than Belgium...we all know this is not true of course!


The reality is like I said in the previous post the main people having a low number of academy coaches will affect is the late bloomers as they likely wont be training with the first team regularly as a 16-17 year old unless they are at a very small team in the first division. The very best I dont see it affecting as A. They'll likely leave at 16 anyway like in most countries or B. Train with the first team regularly and therefore wont be affected by the lack of full time academy coaches.

I'm not down playing the amount of full time coaches we have and say it isnt an issue, it is, but I think the media are exadurating how much of a role its actually playing with youth development as see by Ireland's underage results.

[Stuttgart88]

What would the media have to gain by drawing unfavourable comparisons to similar sized countries if they didn't feel it's a telling contributor?

[pineapple stu]

This might be a hard concept for many to accept, but in the vast majority of countries the very best players will move abroad at 16/17 as even if we excelled and had a football industry here, the reality is the best players are going to have a better time developing in a major European nation such as Germany or England and its not just the case for Irish players, its the case for Scottish players, Danish players, Swedish players, Greek players etc and its reflected when you look at the background of players from these countries. For example at Euro 2020 the Danish side that got to the SF of the Euro's the vast majority of those players left Denmark at 16/17 years old, obviously the odd exception will exist but the majority left at an age most Irish players leave.

Is that true?

It actually isn't.

Of Denmark's Euro 2020 squad (the one that reached the semis) you had -

2 players leave Denmark at 15 (one, Kasper Schmeichel, was an unusual case in that he was joining the same club his dad had just joined)
2 leave at 16
4 leave at 17
1 leave at 18
4 leave at 19
2 leave at 20
4 leave at 22
3 leave at 23
2 leave at 24
2 leave at 25

Of those, one of the 17-year-olds and all the players aged 18 and over and played senior football with their clubs in Denmark, so I think we can take it that they had at that stage graduated beyond academy status.

CSAD's list, which ended "etc" was in fact almost exhaustive - just missing Vestergaard and Boilesen.

[CSAD]

It actually isn't.

Of Denmark's Euro 2020 squad (the one that reached the semis) you had -

2 players leave Denmark at 15 (one, Kasper Schmeichel, was an unusual case in that he was joining the same club his dad had just joined)
2 leave at 16
4 leave at 17
1 leave at 18
4 leave at 19
2 leave at 20
4 leave at 22
3 leave at 23
2 leave at 24
2 leave at 25

Of those, one of the 17-year-olds and all the players aged 18 and over and played senior football with their clubs in Denmark, so I think we can take it that they had at that stage graduated beyond academy status.

CSAD's list, which ended "etc" was in fact almost exhaustive - just missing Vestergaard and Boilesen.

What my list highlight was largely the key players of the squad. What that list just does it confirm what I was trying to get across, that most of the best players in each country will leave at 16/17. They had a lot of journeymen who stayed beyond these ages but their progress probably show's that maybe that wasn't the right decision.

[CSAD]

What would the media have to gain by drawing unfavourable comparisons to similar sized countries if they didn't feel it's a telling contributor?

What they'd have to gain is clicks, its so lacking in balance and its just designed to influence the people who aren't very well informed on the topic...ive had the pleasure of speaking to many on social media and I almost feel sorry for them as they are so ill informed on the topic they are discussing and it just ends with them blocking or ghosting you when it becomes clear to them they arent very well informed on the topic and they are talking to someone who is.

[pineapple stu]

What my list highlight was largely the key players of the squad. What that list just does it confirm what I was trying to get across, that most of the best players in each country will leave at 16/17. They had a lot of journeymen who stayed beyond these ages but their progress probably show's that maybe that wasn't the right decision.

I think this is very revisionist in that it's clearly not what you said you were showing. And your revised case - well, pretty much anyone good enough to be part of a squad getting to the Euro semi-finals is going to be in the category of "best players in the country" at the age of 16/17 - yet most of those didn't leave. Your conclusion at the end is lacking any sort of substance at all, and the case of Nicolai Boilesen even argues against it, in that he moved to Ajax at age 17 there, never really made it, and returned to Copenhagen at 24, where he's been a regular since. Maybe he'd have been better staying at home longer?

I did a study on the same data for Euro 2016 and again, the vast majority of players stayed at home until they were 21/22 - Ireland (and the North) were huge outliers in that regard. There may have been a bit of a change since, but not as big as you note, and there's also a shown correlation between players leaving their home country too early and lesser career outcomes; I've linked it in this thread before.

[Stuttgart88]

What my list highlight was largely the key players of the squad. What that list just does it confirm what I was trying to get across, that most of the best players in each country will leave at 16/17. They had a lot of journeymen who stayed beyond these ages but their progress probably show's that maybe that wasn't the right decision.

I wish our journey men would get us to extra time in a Euros semi

[CSAD]

I think this is very revisionist in that it's clearly not what you said you were showing. And your revised case - well, pretty much anyone good enough to be part of a squad getting to the Euro semi-finals is going to be in the category of "best players in the country" at the age of 16/17 - yet most of those didn't leave. Your conclusion at the end is lacking any sort of substance at all, and the case of Nicolai Boilesen even argues against it, in that he moved to Ajax at age 17 there, never really made it, and returned to Copenhagen at 24, where he's been a regular since. Maybe he'd have been better staying at home longer?

I did a study on the same data for Euro 2016 and again, the vast majority of players stayed at home until they were 21/22 - Ireland (and the North) were huge outliers in that regard. There may have been a bit of a change since, but not as big as you note, and there's also a shown correlation between players leaving their home country too early and lesser career outcomes; I've linked it in this thread before.

I mean if you want to use journeymen to prove you're point then fine, what I was showing is the best players for Denmark in that team. You want to try pull the wool over peoples eyes and think because Denmark had a bunch of players who left after 19 that it proves against my point even though a good chunk of players in this category didnt actually play much of a roll in the squad.

My conclusion has plenty of substance actually, my conclusion indicates that the best players tend to leave their country for bigger countries when they turn 16/17 and everything ive suggested proves this. Where's the evidence to suggest he'd be better saying at home, the evidence ive shown you suggests pretty much all of Denmark's best players did actually leave at that age.

What is this study?

Well that study I can already tell you is bogus, you look at most countries across Europe and you'll find their top players will leave at 16/17 years old.

[CraftyToePoke]

Didn't the Croatian 2016/18 era side who would be a direct population resource comparison, all develop domestically ? Until their early 20s. I'm sure I remember an article on that around that time.

[CSAD]

I wish our journey men would get us to extra time in a Euros semi

Those journeymen wouldn't have got that far without the list of players I provided, which was my overall point. The very best players in most squads leave for bigger nations when they are 16/17 and the point I was trying to make is this is what happened with Denmark in 2021 just like in most countries, they had a bunch of journeymen who stayed a little longer but pretty much all of their top players left at 16/17, the only exception really was Delaney but he was a real late bloomer leaving when he was 25/26.

[CSAD]

Didn't the Croatian 2016/18 era side who would be a direct population resource comparison, all develop domestically ? Until their early 20s. I'm sure I remember an article on that around that time.

Croatia are an interesting one as they are a good example of how have 1 really strong academy can really make a difference, if I'm not mistaken pretty much all of their players came through the Dynamo Zagreb academy or qualified via a parent/grandparent.

[pineapple stu]

Didn't the Croatian 2016/18 era side who would be a direct population resource comparison, all develop domestically ? Until their early 20s. I'm sure I remember an article on that around that time.

Yep (if we could Rakitic, who's Swiss, as developing in Switzerland, which he did)

Of their 2018 World Cup squad -

3 left home at 17 (including Perisic, the only one not to play domestically)
1 at 18
4 at 19
5 at 21
2 at 22
2 at 23
1 at 24
2 at 26
1 at 27
2 at 28

[CraftyToePoke]

Yep (if we could Rakitic, who's Swiss, as developing in Switzerland, which he did)

Of their 2018 World Cup squad -

3 left home at 17 (including Perisic, the only one not to play domestically)
1 at 18
4 at 19
5 at 21
2 at 22
2 at 23
1 at 24
2 at 26
1 at 27
2 at 28

& the Uruguayan & Danish comparisons ?
Going for the comparable population angle again & bigger better neighbouring leagues looking to shop in theirs.

[CSAD]

Yep (if we could Rakitic, who's Swiss, as developing in Switzerland, which he did)

Of their 2018 World Cup squad -

3 left home at 17 (including Perisic, the only one not to play domestically)
1 at 18
4 at 19
5 at 21
2 at 22
2 at 23
1 at 24
2 at 26
1 at 27
2 at 28

It needs to be mentioned that until 2013 Croatia wasnt in the EU so their players couldn't leave Croatia until they were 18.

[pineapple stu]

& the Uruguayan & Danish comparisons ?
Going for the comparable population angle again & bigger better neighbouring leagues looking to shop in theirs.

Well you have the Danish stats above. For Uruguay, of their 2018 World Cup squad (which lost to France in the quarters) -

1 left at 16 (Lucas Torreira, the only player not to play domestically first)
2 at 18
4 at 19
7 at 20
5 at 21
1 at 23
1 at 25
1 at 26
1 at 28

So very similar again.

It needs to be mentioned that until 2013 Croatia wasnt in the EU so their players couldn't leave Croatia until they were 18.

The fact that Croatia team still reached the World Cup final (and the 2022 semis) kinda blows out of the water your suggestion that Denmark suffered from "a lot of journeymen who stayed beyond these ages [16/17] but their progress probably show's that maybe that wasn't the right decision."

[CraftyToePoke]

So comparable nations in population who achieve on levels we can these days only dream of are being better served by most of their lads being home schooled until at an age they're ready to leave, is that fair ?

Same as most of us weren't ready to leave Ireland at 16 but by 22 a lot of us had chosen to, emphasis on chosen there & the importance of both options being credible and available.

CSAD, there isn't a definitive conclusion to be drawn here, evidence doesn't support it. In fact the numbers lean heavily against your argument.

[elatedscum]

All our underage results over the last 6-7 years? Our u17,u19,u21 are in pot 1 at u17,u19 and pot 2 at u21 based on 4 campaigns for the u17/u19s and 3 campaigns for the u21s, why is that the case if things are such a disaster at development level for Ireland, if it was wouldnt this be reflected in the underage sides results which is for the most part a direct reflection of the work countries are doing at underage level.

Because Ruud Dokter was actually pretty competent and did good work - and in some respects we've developed beyond what we should have given the resources at our disposal. Stuff like the emerging talent program, the national underage leagues - they're a huge improvement on what was there for kids coming from a decade previous to it, but it's still working with a fraction of the resources that we should have and players have a fraction of the number of hours training that kids in similar age groups have. also players just sometimes come through despite everything in front of them, sometimes they're just born to play football.