World Cup qualifying group C

**shakermaker1982** · 13/06/2013, 9:41 AM

It's the Swedish home game that worries me the most. The players seem to wilt when playing at home & this has been the case for many a year. Need the LR roar to get these players over the line in September. No harm in making the players watch the Holland home game a few times before September to show how an Irish team can play like a team possessed.

**geysir** · 13/06/2013, 9:45 AM

Originally Posted by cfdh_edmundo

Yeah if we lose in Austria then it's probably all over. Assuming all 3 (us, Swedes and Austrian) lose to Germany and all 3 beat the minnows* (Sweden go to Kazakhstan, Austria go to Faeroes and we have Kazakhs at home) if we win at home to Sweden and lose in Austria then all will depend on the Sweden vs Austria game. If it's a draw or an Austrian win in Stockholm we will most likely be behind the Austrians either on goal difference or points. If Sweden win that game I think all teams could be on 17 points and we would suffer due to our goal difference (we would need to make up a lot of goals to catch Austria, particularly if we lose in Vienna as goals in that match have a double effect (detracting from our GD but adding to the Austrian GD). Draws in all the games between the three will also probably see us all level on points and again missing out on goal difference.

*In terms of minnows the only potential for dropped points I can see is Kazakhstan drawing with Sweden in Astana. The Swedes will have played us in Dublin 4 days earlier and then will have one of the longest possible flights in European football. Whereas Kazakhstan will have played at home to the Faeroese 4 days earlier. But then there is also the chance Sweden will pick up points at home to (an already qualified) Germany on the last match day.

It's a good opportunity for them, probably similar to the last qualifiers when they had to beat an already qualified Netherlands, who had won all their pervious games. The bookies think so and have Sweden as clear favourites to finish 2nd
But as IFK pointed out, there's a serious amount of dysfunction in the Swedish set up. They might come good, but as it stands now, looking at the upcoming games, I'd have Austria as favourites.
Austria have their tails up but I think we have a chance of a draw in Austria,
they will be confident of beating us and may well neglect to fully appreciate that we're tough nut to crack away from home.

**DeLorean** · 13/06/2013, 9:53 AM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

Is there a chance our trip to Germany will be a dead rubber for Germany?

If Germany beat Austria and the Faroes they will be on 22 points with 2 games remaining. Basically either ourselves, Sweden or Austria will have to secure two wins in our next two games to prevent it being a dead rubber for the Germans. That would leave one of the three on 17 points with two games remaining. Anything less and the maximum amount of points is reduced to 15, seven points behind Germany with two games left.

**tetsujin1979** · 13/06/2013, 9:58 AM

Originally Posted by paul_oshea

Great stuff tets, highlighting is a great idea also as it gives us the grouped outcomes by chances of qualifying based on who we beat rather than relying on other results. So basically if we beat sweden there are 7 out of 9 permutations where we qualify. I hope the management realise this.

Not exactly, we could beat Sweden, and then lose to Austria, who then lose to Sweden. That leaves us all on 17 points, I just put us on top in hope more than anything else

Originally Posted by paul_oshea

Actually on second thoughts its 7 chances if we beat sweden, or 7 chances if we beat austria drawing it the other way. Good reading though well done!

Actually the only permutations we can be certain in are if we beat both, goal difference way behind austria.

Tets based on the 6 or 8 goal differnce between us and austria would it not be better to remove the green on those ones?

Might change it to yellow to highlight goal difference comes into play?

Originally Posted by paul_oshea

Also you would assume that we all draw with germany?

no, I'd assume we're all going to lose to Germany, which isn't that unreasonable.

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

Tets, any chance that can be posted here? I can't access that site at work (social media blah blah blah).

Or email it to me?

it's a table, so I don't think I can post it here. PM me an email address and I'll send it on

**DeLorean** · 13/06/2013, 10:00 AM

It would probably be no harm for Germany to give the Austrians a beat of a thumping. I've given up on goal difference completely with regards Austria and Sweden, but Austria are on a bit of a high and it would be good if their confidence took a bit of a hammering before we play them a few days later.

I don't agree with Swinford at all that we have to win both games, but I do feel it's vital that we beat Sweden and Germany beat Austria.

**Bungle** · 13/06/2013, 10:11 AM

The Germans will never give less than 100% for every game, even if they have qualified. They might rest the likes of Lahm and Schweinsteiger to test younger or less experienced players, but the new players coming in will want to put down a marker. I would agree that a draw is possible though, even if I would be more likely to veer towards a 2-0 defeat.

I think Sweden are a mediocre team. However, they are a mediocre team that knows how to get to tournaments. On paper, I think we are certainly better than them. If we have Hoolahan and McCarthy in the centre, then we can and should beat them. However, I do worry that Trap will stick with the tried and trusted (Whelan) and this conservatism makes a draw very likely. I'm not saying that Wes is the next coming of Ronnie Whelan or Liam Brady, but he's a potential match winner. Another potential match winner is James McClean. I would have concerns that Cox will be played out wide. Don't get me wrong, Cox is a half decent striker, but a winger he isn't. I'd veer towards a 1-1 draw, with Ireland perhaps taking an early lead and then sitting back, rather than trying to kill the game off with a second. In short, it will be vintage Ireland, with the fans going away feeling that this was one that got away.

I have been impressed with Austria. They seem like a country that is really on the up and they could be very good by Euro 2016 or World Cup 2018. They will be dangerous in Vienna and Trap won't take any chances with them. For this reason, I predict a 0-0 draw. I think Trap will almost certainly sacrifice Hoolahan for this match or one striker. Green is likely to come in to the team. It will be heroic at times, but we'll be frustrated at things being out of our own hands.

Kazakhstan could be an interesting player in the rest of the group. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that they draw with the Swedes. It is also conceivable that with all the teams locked on equal points, we might need to knock in 5 or 6 (or 7 or 8!!) past them to get second. I can't see us beating them by more than 3 goals, so this would be a nightmare scenario.

**DeLorean** · 13/06/2013, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by Bungle

If we have Hoolahan and McCarthy in the centre, then we can and should beat them. However, I do worry that Trap will stick with the tried and trusted (Whelan)

Save yourself the worry Bungle, just accept that it's going to happen unless Whelan picks up a knock.

**Stuttgart88** · 13/06/2013, 10:39 AM

Isn't it the same every campaign under Trap?

"If we can just beat Sweden / Austria / Bulgaria / Slovakia or whoever…"

The reality is that we have failed miserably to do so - and dating back to Kerr too. It's not just Trap's fault, although I think Trap has his own unique contribution topoor home results. We nearly snuck a late winner against Slovakia and an undeserved late winner against Bulgaria, but the away performances were more convincing and in fairness to Trap, our away form is probably our best ever.

AB is probably right to expect 2 points (max!), but simple randomness should deliver at least one good home or away win per decade.

**Closed Account 2** · 13/06/2013, 10:45 AM

Originally Posted by DeLorean

It would probably be no harm for Germany to give the Austrians a beat of a thumping. I've given up on goal difference completely with regards Austria and Sweden, but Austria are on a bit of a high and it would be good if their confidence took a bit of a hammering before we play them a few days later.

We have got 8 goals to make up on them (+10 vs +2) which will be a tall order, we both have Germany anyway so in a sense the gd in those matches will probably be similar. There is the game in Vienna where goal difference will in effect count double, and they have Faeroes (a) on the last day whereas we have Kazakhstan (h), we might outscore them in those last day matches but I don't think we can make up 8 goals unless we have a big win in Vienna.

A flurry of yellows and / or reds in the Germany game would be ideal. The following will all be suspended for the Austria v Ireland match if they get booked in Germany v Austria match

M Janko
M Harnik
S Pr�dl
C Fuchs
P Hosiner
D Alaba
A Dragovic

(Kavlak and Baumgartlinger have already served a game ban for 2 yellows)

Any of Alaba, Harnik and Janko (all of whom are good players and have scored a few so far in these qualifiers) would be a huge bonus for us. In terms of Irish players, if the following get booked vs Sweden they will miss the Vienna match:

D O'Dea
A McGeady
P Green
S Coleman
J O'Shea
W Hoolahan

James McCarthy and Shane Long have already been suspended for getting 2 yellow cards, the next yellow card bans for them will be when they reach 4, so even if they get a yellow in the Sweden game they wont miss the Vienna match.

**paul_oshea** · 13/06/2013, 10:55 AM

Originally Posted by DeLorean

Save yourself the worry Bungle, just accept that it's going to happen unless Whelan picks up a knock.

hmmmm. Doesn't peader1987 live near stoke, or support them anyway....

I reckon a new manager could drop whelan failry quick from Stoke first team. Would trap still play him? He is consistent in not picking the players not getting a game generally.

**ArdeeBhoy** · 13/06/2013, 10:59 AM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

simple randomness should deliver at least one good home or away win per decade.

We need some statistician to the thread to prove how we are disproving this theory. All things being equal normally, we should hope to beat Sweden and lose to Austria.
But be surprised (and disappointed) if that happens, even if it would give us an extra point. As we'd all have 17, but we'd have the worst goal difference probably.

**DeLorean** · 13/06/2013, 11:03 AM

Originally Posted by paul_oshea

hmmmm. Doesn't peader1987 live near stoke, or support them anyway....

I reckon a new manager could drop whelan failry quick from Stoke first team. Would trap still play him? He is consistent in not picking the players not getting a game generally.

The start of September is probably too early to drop somebody for not getting regular football. There'll only be two or three PL games played at that stage.

**peadar1987** · 13/06/2013, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by paul_oshea

hmmmm. Doesn't peader1987 live near stoke, or support them anyway....

I reckon a new manager could drop whelan failry quick from Stoke first team. Would trap still play him? He is consistent in not picking the players not getting a game generally.

I'd agree with DeLorean. Sparky will probably drop Whelan at the start of next season, especially if he can keep Nzonzi. His early hints were that Nzonzi and Adam would be his preferred central midfield partnership, but I can't see Trap dropping Whelan after just a couple of games of next season. It does give hope for the future though. We have better players than Glenn, or at least, players who are better on a consistent basis. Whelan often looks alright in the Stoke team, but he's surrounded by muscular giants, who like the ball lumped to them, which I think suits his style of play better than having someone small who prefers the ball accurately in to feet.

**paul_oshea** · 13/06/2013, 1:23 PM

The end of this piece would depress ye after all we can take from these few games - play hoolahan, with 2 fast wingers.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...-29341366.html

**Stuttgart88** · 13/06/2013, 2:38 PM

I wonder has Stephen Quinn leapt up the standings? Trap has thrown the likes of Sammon, Sledge and Best in at the deep end in the past.

Can Quinn play wide left?

I know Trap is set in his ways, but it wouldn't surprise me if he left Coleman wide right with McShane or Kelly behind him. I'd take that over Cox or Keogh wide right any day of the week.

I wouldn't rule out the following though I would categorically prefer Hoolahan and McCarthy. McClean as an impact sub. I think Trap prefers McShane to Kelly.

-------Forde------
Kelly (McShane)-O'Shea-Sledge-Wilson
Coleman-Whelan-McCarthy-Quinn
-----Keane--Long----