US credit downgrade/General recession thread

**culloty82** · 06/11/2011, 9:06 PM

Looks like the next Greek PM will be Lucas Papademos - an ex-governor of the Bank of Greece, a Vice-President of ECB and member of the Trilateral Commission, presumably he'll step down after the February elections.

**culloty82** · 08/11/2011, 7:22 PM

Berlusconi to quit - when the reform bill is passed through parliament. Elections are unlikely to happen before February, and given the vast number of parties in the Italian parliament, the outcome is a bit of a lottery.

**pineapple stu** · 08/11/2011, 7:56 PM

Yeah, Italy edging towards needing the IMF. Borrowing at 6.6% - seems 7% is the tip-over point. We're at 8.5% or so, and Greece are at 33%.

Debts of E1.8 trillion, so dunno how that'd possibly work out. Is it too simplistic to say that if they go broke, they're just straight out of the EU? I know everything'll be done to avoid that, but it's not really working.

**culloty82** · 09/11/2011, 7:31 AM

No, if they hit 7% it's pretty much game over, the euro collapses almost instantly, and time to get the punt templates back out of the Central Bank. There was talk last week that the only way Greece could leave the euro would have been to exit the EU, but it seems Italy's still the world's 8th largest economy, so business as usual couldn't cater for a collapse that size.

**BonnieShels** · 09/11/2011, 11:46 AM

They're at 7.45 now...

**culloty82** · 09/11/2011, 1:20 PM

At best, you'd give the euro about 12 months given the way affairs are progressing at the minute. Berlusconi now plans to retire totally, rather than contest the next election, his PdL party is an FF-style catch-all coalition of "Christian democrats, liberal-centrists, liberals, social democrats, liberal conservatives, national conservatives and grassroots (?)", so that looks likely to implode without him as the glue.

**legendz** · 09/11/2011, 1:25 PM

I hope this payment last week is a long ball game as suggested on the Frontline that'll see an IOU cashed in down the road. Before seeing the comments and being influenced, if possible, it's what's my view on it was. Austerity measures in some sectors isn't bad for the country anyway. The money wasted in public services, I'm not looking to brandish everyone with the same brush not all are reaping big money, but public expenditure on social welfare and public services has to be brought under control.

**Macy** · 09/11/2011, 1:44 PM

Originally Posted by legendz

I hope this payment last week is a long ball game as suggested on the Frontline that'll see an IOU cashed in down the road. Before seeing the comments and being influenced, if possible, it's what's my view on it was.

Well it may keep us in a reduced size euro zone. Probably saved us being thrown in to the Greek and Italian Crisis that's happened subsequently. Relative to the amounts already paid and promised, it was hardly the time for "Ireland Defaults" headlines for the amount that was paid.

I honestly don't think anyone has a plan, but you'd have to wonder is it time for controls on the secondary bond markets - there's no real reason for Italy to be in this position but for speculation!

Originally Posted by legendz

The money wasted in public services, I'm not looking to brandish everyone with the same brush not all are reaping big money, but public expenditure on social welfare and public services has to be brought under control.

It's all about genuine reform though. Too early to say whether that'll come from Croke Park, but if the alternative is simple pay cuts then that's not the answer either. Similarly with Social Welfare - if there is Welfare Trap (and I think it's a very big if), the solution doesn't have to be rate cuts, it can be retention of some benefits if you take up employment, and easy on and off benefits if short term work comes available. But again, the debate centre's around rate cuts. Pay and Welfare Cuts aren't the hard decisions, they're the easy, and lazy, ones.

**bennocelt** · 09/11/2011, 4:22 PM

Max Keiser is predicting that China will buy a lot of Italian gold (4th biggest supply in world), before the IMF come in (ie loss of sovereignty), which is interesting if it happens, but I dont know what china needs with a lot of gold!

**legendz** · 09/11/2011, 4:58 PM

Originally Posted by Macy

It's all about genuine reform though. Too early to say whether that'll come from Croke Park, but if the alternative is simple pay cuts then that's not the answer either. Similarly with Social Welfare - if there is Welfare Trap (and I think it's a very big if), the solution doesn't have to be rate cuts, it can be retention of some benefits if you take up employment, and easy on and off benefits if short term work comes available. But again, the debate centre's around rate cuts. Pay and Welfare Cuts aren't the hard decisions, they're the easy, and lazy, ones.

I don't know much about these thing payments I have to admit. There is a difference though between social welfare and dole if that's right? People who've worked for a number of years and have stamps built up should be covered by a certain amount for a certain lenght of time. The dole I understand is when the payments based on stamps run out. That should be a different rate level.

**Dodge** · 09/11/2011, 4:58 PM

Doesn't need the gold. Could do with a European country in the back pocket though

**Macy** · 09/11/2011, 6:16 PM

Originally Posted by legendz

I don't know much about these thing payments I have to admit. There is a difference though between social welfare and dole if that's right? People who've worked for a number of years and have stamps built up should be covered by a certain amount for a certain lenght of time. The dole I understand is when the payments based on stamps run out. That should be a different rate level.

There already is a difference - Jobseekers Benefit is based on stamps, Jobseekers Allowance is the basic, but it's means tested.

**culloty82** · 09/11/2011, 9:08 PM

Be afraid, be very afraid.

**BonnieShels** · 09/11/2011, 11:48 PM

Originally Posted by culloty82

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Awesome.

This is gonna be fun. Where's me popcorn.

**Macy** · 10/11/2011, 7:52 AM

Originally Posted by culloty82

Be afraid, be very afraid.

As I said earlier, our compliance should see us in a reduced eurozone though. Now whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is a different debate - at this point I'd say good thing. We've missed the default, exit, devalue boat.

**Lim till i die** · 10/11/2011, 11:43 PM

Should I be spending all my mattress euros now or what??

**Macy** · 11/11/2011, 8:11 AM

Originally Posted by Lim till i die

Should I be spending all my mattress euros now or what??

Would you not donate it to Athlone like the other fella?

**Real ale Madrid** · 15/11/2011, 2:02 PM

Few interesting tips in here if Football Philantrophy is not your thing......

http://preparefordefault.ie/

**dahamsta** · 15/11/2011, 9:01 PM

Sites like that run by people that don't have the balls to identify themselves aren't worth the pixels they're written on.

**Battery Rover** · 17/11/2011, 10:02 AM

How much longer can the Euro last with all this debt. Spanish 10 year bonds almost reached the supposed point of no return (7%) during their bond auction this morning finally selling at 6.975%.