The thing is a human is unlikely to reliably pick a random selection when they have an interest in the outcome, there will always be an underlying bias, even when someone (attempts to) randomly pick outcomes. Psychologically speaking, any fan is likely to be wanting either a glamour draw (e.g. Spain, France, etc) or an "easy" draw (e.g. Greece, Slovenia, etc) or a pessimistic draw (Holland, Russia etc) or some other set of criteria depending on their outlook. There are also other constraints, for instance there is a chance of being in a 5 team group (with the 6th seed being blank), yet due to human bias noone has really considered this, a blank team is similar to a "no answer" or "n/a" in a survey and with human input this will be under-selected.Originally Posted by Crosby87
The actual probability is more subtle than say 5 in 44 (France + the other "43 other teams"). As the teams are set into six pots, once a team is drawn from one of those pots the remaining 8 teams cannot go into that group. For instance England could draw France, Bosnia, Poland, Cyprus, San Marino. But once France had been drawn, they could then no longer draw Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia or Slovakia.
Also as mentioned above, using 5 in 44 (5 being seeding pots 2-6; 44 being the other 43 + France) is slightly wrong anyway, since England can draw a blank team in pot 6 (i.e. be in a 5 team group instead of a full 6 team group), so mathematically "Blank" needs to be a team, so it needs the baseline needs to be 45 not 44.
In fairness, how often has that been the case? England and France would usually be first seeds. The headline - which was really about the seeding confirmation - was pointing out that France have dropped to second seeds.
i dont have a problem with a 3 man team going to the draw. i am sure good contacts and relationships with other associations are formed at these things. I am also sure that there are other events staged around the draw that we should be well represented at.
as for the shower issue and delaneys salary.... i 100% agree with the article.
Is it really that big of a surprise that France dropped to anyone who even remotely follows Football though Pineapple? Half the team didn't even want to play in the World Cup.
No Somos muchos pero estamos locos.
It's just a way to grab attention to the article is all. Think it's being over-criticised.
I think most football observers (who dont religously follow the seedings thread) may be surprised that Norway are in Pot1 and Montenegro in Pot2, I was. And I wouldnt have been surprised if France had remained in Pot1 to be honest.
Reading the seedings thread over the years - quite often a trend in recent results doesnt appear to reflect itself in the seedings because of the various weightings applied to historical results.
I thought you were off the drink Ronnie?
"No, I drink to help me mind my own business....can I get you one? (c) Ronnie Drew
I reckon other countries are out there, looking at the pots and hoping they can avoid us as their third seed opponent, us and France as second seeds would be one to be avoided by most, even top pot dwellers. Including ourselves avoiding France hopefully. I have a feeling we are going to get a real beast of a draw, our present group could have been much tougher so we are due a downturn and I have a feeling England and ourselves will be paired together, its been a while. Its time.
How did Norway manage to get into pot 1?
All done with mirrors apparently.
Norway
Montenegro
Ireland
Northern Ireland/Georgia
Faroe islands
San Marino
I think I should the parachute, because I'm great.
In fact, I think I should get both parachutes, in case one doesn't work.
I have a feeling that Spain or the Netherlands are certs.
I do not want France or England.
Any idea of tomorrow evening's lotto numbers, lads?
Te draw is live on rte2 tomorrow night the 30th at 8.15.
Yes. I reckon exactly 7 numbers will be drawn from the range of 1-45 inclusive.
SSN are going with the whole England v France thing now.
http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2011/...dcup_fifa.html
Will be interesting to see if there are any developments on the goal-line technology front, but has the play-off system itself come in for heavy criticism? I didn't think so. I think the play-off system is fair enough. The problem when we were drawn against France was that a decision was taken after the groups were completed to seed the play-off draw after the groups had already been seeded originally. Essentially, it was unnecessarily making things twice as hard for teams like us as we'd fairly finished second after initial seeding just like all the other teams who'd finished second. The seeding was my only issue with those play-offs (and the introduction of basketball rules for a split second during extra-time in our away leg, obviously).FIFA today announced that the 2014 World Cup finals will start on 12 June and finish on 13 July.
At a news conference in Rio, FIFA president Sepp Blatter also announced that a decision whether to introduce goalline technology would be taken at next March's meeting in London of the International FA Board, the game's lawmakers.
If approved, he said, it could be implemented at the World Cup finals two years later.
FIFA also announced that the World Cup play-off system, heavily criticised after Thierry Henry's infamous handball for France against the Republic of Ireland, would be maintained.
Christ, that's a weak group. No offence to Irishmen (Northern/Republic) or Montenegrin, or Brian Kerr, obviously, if any of you are reading.
"Life is like a hair on a toilet seat. Sooner or later you are bound to get pi$$ed off."
"In this league, a draw is sometimes as good as a win" - Steve Morison
I reckon we could top that. I think we're due a super easy group.
I think I'd take Greece over Norway.
So
Greece
Slovakia
Ireland
Austria
Latvia
Andorra/San Marino
Happy with that.
Also Cymro... Irishmen will do. There's no such thing as Republic of or Northern Irishmen.
(queue GR)
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
Over at OWC headquarters an alarm sounds.
Ugh....
I take it back, next Irish group was....
I'd cry, I really would if that group came up. Wouldn't be tears associated with winning the lotto or losing one's virginity say....well, unless it was lost in a Romanian prison.Italy
Serbia
Rep Ireland
Romania
Latvia
Last edited by Kingdom; 29/07/2011 at 7:36 PM.
Here they come! It’s the charge of the “Thanks” Brigade!
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