With the next updating of Rankings at the end of june (june 29th), with ireland wining they last 3 games (n ireland, scotland and macedonia) and have the italy game to come on tuesday, would these results boosts us at all in the rankings?
Doubt it is sufficient enough to get us into pot as second seeds for the World Cup draw at the end of July. Currently we are the 22nd best team in Europe and would have to jump to 18th, which according to this mathemathician means we only have 0.03% chance.
http://www.football-rankings.info/20...imulation.html
We'll be third seeds but with a good performance we could take 4 points off any of the second seeds.
http://www.football-rankings.info/20...efa-10000.html
Is that you anonymous?
This site pre-calculates potential rankings based on "probable" results computed using the Elo rating system. It has us down as beating Macedonia (which it got right) and losing to Italy. If we do lose to Italy and other results go as the site expects, we'll move up one place to 33rd.
Italy are currently ranked 9th, however, so I'd imagine a draw or win would do us well, albeit in a friendly game. Not sure where it would leave us though, although if you want to try and work it out, this document outlines the calculation process.Code:Ranking | Team | Points | +/- Ranking | +/- Points 1 Spain 1871 0 14 2 Netherlands 1688 0 -14 3 Germany 1417 1 4 4 England 1243 2 80 5 Brazil 1130 -2 -295 6 Italy 1104 3 85 7 Portugal 1046 1 -6 8 Croatia 1033 2 42 9 Montenegro 1011 15 191 10 Argentina 1007 -5 -260 11 Norway 972 0 -15 12 Greece 959 0 -26 12 Mexico 959 16 157 14 Japan 949 0 -12 15 RUSSIA 940 3 44 16 France 932 3 49 17 Côte d'Ivoire 922 4 55 18 USA 887 4 32 19 Sweden 884 9 82 20 Uruguay 876 -13 -218 21 Denmark 857 6 49 22 Australia 852 -2 -24 23 Slovenia 833 -6 -70 24 Turkey 820 6 25 25 Korea Republic 787 6 33 26 Egypt 785 10 109 27 Chile 782 -14 -185 27 Serbia 782 -11 -125 29 SLOVAKIA 779 -3 -30 30 Paraguay 756 -7 -91 31 Ghana 735 -16 -183 32 Switzerland 724 -7 -95 33 REPUBLIC OF IRELAND 708 1 27 34 Israel 703 -1 -6 35 Belgium 691 2 37 36 Nigeria 673 3 36 37 Cameroon 669 12 97 38 Burkina Faso 661 6 61 39 Czech Republic 653 -7 -69 40 Honduras 651 3 48
Slovakia's win against Andorra was correctly predicted, as was Russia's against Armenia, although they're also predicted to beat Cameroon in their next friendly if they're to rise from 18th to 15th. Slovakia don't play another game until after the next update, so it's likely they'll move down from 26th. The site has them for 29th come the end of the month.
I note Montenegro have been predicted to enter into the top ten - quite an astonishing rise of 15 places - although I see that was based on expecting them beating Bulgaria yesterday, a match they only drew 1-1. It's unlikely they'll enter the top ten as a result then.
I see you got there before me.Originally Posted by French Toasht
How would we go about making it into pot 2 by the July rankings considering we only play one game before now and then? Beat Italy and desperately hope other results go in our favour somehow?
I think it's fair to say that it's in our interests, for the sole purpose of rising up the rankings at least, that our upcoming opponents are ranked as highly as possible, so that if we do manage results against them, if will bear us greater rewards. Would that be correct?
Drawing Norway and Slovenia as our first and second seeds would be a dream. Even Croatia and Greece in the first pot, I wouldn't be too worried about.Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales
France, Russia and Serbia are quite dangerous in that second pot. Wouldn't like to be drawn with them along with a first pot powerhouse.
So Norway, Slovakia, Austria, Finland, San Marino...
Danny, these rankings are impossible to figure out. To my mind if a country was solely concerned with their ranking, they would only ever organise friendlies against the Faroes and San Marino, because the weighting towards a draw against a high ranked nation (say Italy) seems to be disproportionately disadvantaged against a win against the Faroes. The effort : reward ratio is not recognised by these rankings. For example in a month when Scotland only played the second best team in the world, Brazil, and lost 2-0 (no great shame), they dropped 16 places in the rankings. Particularly at a time when we attach great importance to the rankings, (around draw time), it really makes no sense to play one of the best nations in the world.
That said, win lose or draw against Italy, we are too far from climbing into the second pot or falling into the 4th pot, so really the game is of no practical significance to our ranking position.
Best case scenario: Norway, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Iceland, San Marino.
Worst case scenario: Spain, France, Scotland, Poland, Wales.
What now?!
How can Montenegro be ahead of us in pot 2 when we finished above them in the 2010 qualifiers and this is only their second qualifying campaign?
Because the Elo system wouldn't allow for the fact that they're not playing that long (which, when you think of it, shouldn't really be a factor anyway).
In the current official world rankings, Argentina are currently 5th and Montenegro 24th.
So, theoretically, if utilising friendlies for the purpose of anything other than trying to boost our ranking wasn't priority, we should be organising meaningless friendlies against opposition we're certain to beat approaching draw time?
Exactly. For the past year we should only have played teams from pot 5 and 6 in friendlies. Winning against big nations is rewarded, but the detriment of a loss against them can be extremely punitive eg Scotland v Brazil example.
We're not arrogant, we're just better.
÷
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Always thought friendlies had no bearing on the rankings. Bit of a farce how much friendlies can scew the rankings. Looking at Montonegro so high makes little sense even with their excellent start to this campaign and I'm open to correction but I think Euro 2000 may have been Norways last Championship yet the almost ever present tournament finalists Sweden are below them. No real complaint with most of the teams above us in fairness but other countries could have some grievances.
It's when you see certain Asian and north American sides above you that the rankings can rankle.
A surprise appearance in the top 45 from Burkina Faso, although Gabon have been unable to halt a slide down the rankings. After one or two of the fairly recent ranking updates, Gabon were actually ranked ahead of ourselves. Mad.
I sometimes question my obsessions with such triviality and then along you come Danny...
:P
I think my signature says it all, really.Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales
"Life is like a hair on a toilet seat. Sooner or later you are bound to get pi$$ed off."
"In this league, a draw is sometimes as good as a win" - Steve Morison
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