Is LoI qualification for Champions' League/Europa League realistic?

**culloty82** · 18/02/2011, 5:02 PM

Cork, Shelbourne, Bohs and Derry have all crashed chasing the UEFA dream, but can clubs like the two Rovers qualify for group stages within five years with balanced financial and squad development plans. Smaller clubs like BATE, Anorthosis and Maccabi Haifa have all bucked the odds in recent seasons, so is there potential for an Irish Rosenberg?

**Lim till i die** · 18/02/2011, 5:04 PM

No...

**Longfordian** · 18/02/2011, 5:15 PM

Yeah I think they can make it to the knockout stages any year now.

**legendz** · 18/02/2011, 5:23 PM

Two clubs from leagues lower that the LoI in the coefficient table qualified for the EL group stage this year. I think the best we can hope for is a side getting as far as the EL play-offs. TNS got to the EL play-offs after they knocked out Boh's. I think Shamrock Rovers, depending on the draw, could be capable of that. If clubs are consistently knocking on the door of the group stages, it'll be decent progress.
The Republic of Ireland had many near missed and it was great when they finally broke through to the major Championships. If clubs are consistently knocking on the door, in time one might get to savour qualification to the big stage.

**PartySaint** · 18/02/2011, 6:00 PM

The clubs that got to the group stages from a leagues that has a lower co-efficient than ours had massive money behind them, The new layouts do help us tho, If Roers get through 1 Champions league round they are guaranteed a play off spot in the EL, not likely they will get into the group phase but not impossible

**legendz** · 18/02/2011, 6:36 PM

Would there be a place/interest for UEFA to create a competition for the league champions that don't even get to drop into the Europa League? 20 league champions are out after the first qualifying round.

**SkStu** · 18/02/2011, 6:46 PM

im convinced it is just around the corner for Shams if they just spend a few thousand more a week.

**Spudulika** · 18/02/2011, 6:54 PM

Of course anything is possible, though under the current system there is no chance. Partysaint I disagree slightly with you on the clubs that were mentioned - Rosenborg didn't have big money behind them at first, they were in the doldrums for many years, rebuild from the ground up, invested in player development and youth structures and the breakthrough they made kept their high income steady. I remember when Shels played them and there was very little to choose from except for the professional set up of the Norwegians. Also BATE don't have big money behind them, they were/are the slightly outsider team in Belarus. Again they invested in their structure and development, have a small and tidy little ground, and it was only a few years ago that Bohs knocked them out of Europe. Once they got into the group stages it built from there - but they re-invested it in infrastructure and youths.

Can anybody imagine if an Irish club qualified for the Europa League - they'd be bankrupt within 2 years. Shels beat a decent Icelandic side, a very poor Croatian side, then put it up to Deportivo home and away, and were unlucky to draw a tough French side. All the money and goodwill that came with their run was blown on grabbing any decent player they could from other league clubs. I shudder to think what would happen if any Irish side made the CL or EL group stage, even a nice run club like Monaghan.

**legendz** · 18/02/2011, 8:09 PM

Originally Posted by Spudulika

BATE don't have big money behind them, they were/are the slightly outsider team in Belarus. Again they invested in their structure and development, have a small and tidy little ground, and it was only a few years ago that Bohs knocked them out of Europe. Once they got into the group stages it built from there - but they re-invested it in infrastructure and youths.

Can anybody imagine if an Irish club qualified for the Europa League - they'd be bankrupt within 2 years. Shels beat a decent Icelandic side, a very poor Croatian side, then put it up to Deportivo home and away, and were unlucky to draw a tough French side. All the money and goodwill that came with their run was blown on grabbing any decent player they could from other league clubs. I shudder to think what would happen if any Irish side made the CL or EL group stage, even a nice run club like Monaghan.

You make a good point. History suggests the money will be blown. If either of the Rover's are to progress over the next few seasons, it will have to be with steady progress. Qualifiers are knock-out at the end of the day. Club's can have a good run but if they have a bad run and a set-back, they need to be in a position where it won't knock them out of their stride. If a club can make it with steady progress, which essentially will be needed to make it, we can only hope when they do they won't suddenly go off the rails.
The FAI when Ireland first started qualifying for major tournaments, were not great themselves in investing that money wisely. It seems it endemic in football here.

**Spudulika** · 18/02/2011, 8:25 PM

That's the thing Legendz, money flows out of the game here far too easily and I'd love to see a full statistical analysis of what you could call the money chain. I know we've all read about the trickle down effect of finances in the UK league systems, and there was a guy on Newstalk a few weeks ago speaking about Moneyball (is this right - the soccernomics or some such) of how to be prudent and succeed. Clubs in Ireland can do it - Bate average 2-4,000 crowds for league games, they've a stadium for about 5,000 and while I'm too lazy tonight to wiki it, I do know that they had 90% Belarussian players in the first team (maybe an Armenian or Brazilian thrown in the mix). Belarus is a poor country, really poor. Even so players are well looked after (I can only go on what I've heard that players wages in the top league for the Neman were averaging 1,000e a month in 2009-10). For cost of living it's great, you live well on 200e a month there, so this is a big salary.

I'd love to see one of our clubs make a run at it this year, maybe Sligo could.

**legendz** · 18/02/2011, 8:59 PM

Interesting story on BATE. They are still involved in the Europa League as well.

**mypost** · 19/02/2011, 12:45 AM

It all depends on the draw really. If we won 2 CL rounds, we'd make the UEFA Cup Groups at worst, and the already stuffed season would continue until mid-December. From a purely football point of view, I want the easiest draw possible, not the likes of Juventus, where the chances of progression are nil.

**Rasputin** · 19/02/2011, 8:52 AM

The youth structures at Rovers are abysmal.
If European progression was secured it would be massively important that it is these structures that are improved upon.

**gspain** · 19/02/2011, 10:44 AM

We are the highest ranked country never to have had a side in the group stages of a European competition.

So the answer is yes although the Europa league is more realistic.

If Rovers win their opening game (hopefully they'll be seeded) then they will have 2 european ties and winning either means the group stages of the EL at a minimum.

**legendz** · 19/02/2011, 1:40 PM

Qualifying Round 1 of the Champions League is very tough on league champions. There's no safety net at all for the 17 defeated sides. UEFA go on about fair play. The champions of the lower leagues get nothing. All the non-champions in the CL have a safety net of some sort. 8 clubs who make good money from the group stages of the Champions League and happen to finish third in their group, get a safety net into the Europa League knock-out stage. It's real fair play!!
The Europa League is big enough already but UEFA may as well go the whole way and enlarge it from 12 groups of 4 to 16 groups of 4, twice as big as the CL. CL Qualifying Round 1 defeated sides should be able to drop into the Europa League qualifiers. Once the group stages start, there should be no safety net of CL losers dropping in.

**Sean South** · 19/02/2011, 6:57 PM

Originally Posted by legendz

Would there be a place/interest for UEFA to create a competition for the league champions that don't even get to drop into the Europa League? 20 league champions are out after the first qualifying round.

**abcd** · 19/02/2011, 9:19 PM

Teams like Sheriff Tiraspol have made the group stages in the Europa so its not totally out of the question. The Europa League can be achieved but it requires a couple of teams to really have their act together and not be relying on a European run to keep them going financially. If they keep on the straight and narrow Shamrock Rovers could do it within a couple of years with a bit of luck with the draw. Bnei Yehuda was a very good scalp to take on their first European outing.

However, I think the only chance is the CL representative dropping down to the Europa. It would require a lot of favourable draws for a team to come through all the way from the Europa first or even second qualifying round.

Pats a couple of years back, Rovers against Bnei, almost Bohs against RB Salzburg showed surprises can happen. Then again they can happen on the other side too with TNS, Vllaznia and son on

Champions League is pipe dream stuff in the medium term at least.

**SkStu** · 19/02/2011, 9:25 PM

good post abcd. I think it will take more than just an "easy" draw (as we proved). It will also take a LOI team performing to their best possible level for 6 games and a huge chunk of luck on top of that. The Europa is a lot closer for both champions and qualifiers.

**pineapple stu** · 19/02/2011, 9:26 PM

It's perfectly possible for a team to get into the UEFA groups with the new format. It's only two wins for the CL team, with one of those probably seeded. It'd need a bit of a shock in the third round, but if that's a one-in-ten chance, the law of averages says it's likely to happen at one stage or another. Anderlecht - who Bohs would have gotten - is a bloody tough tie, but it's easier than the ties in the old CL third qualifying round.

**kdjaC** · 19/02/2011, 10:06 PM

We got tru 2 rounds twice to get into the EL playoff and each time we were truly buggered the other 5 teams we could have got were on a level way higher than us. We couldnt compete with those teams we got Hertha and Steaua but it could have been much much worse

Champions league is a possibility with the new draw but again look at the 5 Bohs could have got had they gone to the final round, some scary teams in it.