Last night, Martin essentially proposed a reverse Tallaght Strategy, and while he was probably only muddying the waters, Kenny interestingly made no reply. Looking at the likely outcome, with FG expected to win 65-70 seats, Labour around 40 and FF anywhere between 30 and 40, it must be tempting for FG to keep all the Cabinet seats and come to an arrangement, rather than surrender six ministries as would occur with Labour. However, Fianna Fáil requires a generation in isolation from even indirect influence on power, so a left-right realignment must be postponed until then.
It's the way the numbers have been looking for some time. It'd could lead to the merger of FF and FG (probably some from left of FF would move to Labour) if FF are small enough. This would be a positive for Ireland, going forward(!?!)
However it's probably a cheap stunt by Martin to try and get Transfers from someone/ anyone. Labour won't have the balls to force it.
If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.
I could see FF support FG in these 'exceptional times' but I couldn't see them merging anytime in the near future. Everything about it screams stunt to me though.
Can’t see it. FG’s gain in keeping ministries would be tempered by the toxicity of FF support. Having spent 14 years trying to beat them, FF support would destroy FG’s credibility. It’s a time for digging knives into wounds, not giving adversaries a band-aid.
Tricky Mickey is driving a wedge between FG and Labour, suggesting that FF and FG are closer policy-wise than FG-Labour. If he convinces enough voters that Labour would be redundant, it could save some FF seats, and maybe reduce Labour transfers to SF and ULA.
A Left-Right Dáil needs an FF-FG merger: FF are so arrogant they’d want FG to join them, so no chance. Tallaght 2 would help FF regroup and keep Labour out. Once strengthened (2014 Locals?) they could withdraw whenever suited them. Cue FG and Labour losses, and FF in government by 2015. No thanks.
BTW, I don’t think FF will get 30-40 seats:
11xfive-seaters – 11 seats (requires 16.5% of the vote/10% FPs)
15xfour-seaters – single candidates, 10; two candidates, 6. (20%/15% FPs)
17xthree-seaters – 4 (25%/18% FPs)
As things stand (14%), FF are looking at 20-25. Two new opinion polls out tomorrow: Mickey Lift or ED (Electoral Dysfunction!)?
An uncomfortable truth for FG voters.Originally Posted by Eminence Grise
FF and FG are both nearly identical in social and economic ideologys.
Both have fully endorsed Neo-Liberal Capitalist policies which have got us into this economic quagmire.
In a word, no. FG have learned a lot from the last 14 years and they are not likely to relinquish the.momentum bow by saying yes to Martin.
FF can vote for whatever they like in the next Dáil and that's fine they'll just help out FG's agenda at the end of the day to such an extent that they will end up showing off just how irrelevant they have become.
FG pulled a masterstroke firstly with the debate debate and now with the euro commission meeting. It's been a good week for Kenny and FG, a soft week for Martin and SF and an awful week for Labour.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
I personally see how it is bad for Labour - Labour as the main opposition party, able to oppose FG policy that has FF support, would be great for Labour long term. Rather than make them redundant it makes them more important!
@Bonnieshels - Whatever about Labour, I struggle to see how it's been a good week for FG. And how you can possible charaterise FG's handling of the debate's as a masterstroke is beyond me. It hasn't played well so far, even if I do believe that their basic point is right - I'm not convinced that it's not being seen as Kenny hiding. Pains me to say it, but defo FF's week, hopefully the honeymoon is beginning to come to an end (judging by Saturday View, but that could just be a decent journalist hosting it!)
If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.
Yeeeees... there's nothing like another five years in opposition to motivate a party and its supporters.
I can see the posters now: Grayman Gilmore grinning down from an ESB pole - Vote No.2 Labour! We'll be an Important Opposition! (Or should that be Impotent?)
There is no long-term in Irish politics: the system is geared to receive and deliver instant gratification. Only one thing matters in the Dail: holding power. Everybody else is redundant.
The Greens got into power. Anything can happen.
Poll out tomorrow has overall support for fianna fail static but Martin tops the poll for choice of taoiseach. Bewildering really.
I've posted this over in the election thread...
FG 33% -1 Lab 21% -2 FF 16% -1% SF 13% -1 Greens 2% Ind 15% +5
Also as a choice for taoiseach its MM 31 EG 26 EK 19
Bizarre to say the least.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
Eoghan Harris has gone beyond parody at this stage.
Why would they?
And what Macy said.
More chance of the SDLP/Labour/SF joining-up, FFS.
Labour-FF, old lovers falling back into bed, FF shafting Labour, new election called and suddenly the soldiers of destiny are leading us further down the road to destruction. I don't know if anyone understands the media spinning done for MM (and my dislike of how a relatively decent man is being moved into a position where in 5-6 years will be destroyed a la Bertie/Biffo), but it's even catching people for whom I still hold high regard. When my mother, who is very liberal and very anti-FF, says to me, "I like Martin, he's done so much. Look what he did for that lassie in Sudan when John O'Shea was in hiding. And sure, hasn't be buried 2 children. God love him."
Now do some media research, look at the build up of articles and comments in the past 6 month, building and building to his elevation as our future Taoiseach. Then match it with what he has ACTUALLY done, and it's smoke and mirrors. We're going to be shafted again.
As for the Harris article, he's entitled to write as he wants, though he's desperate to hang onto his senate seat, otherwise he's just a FF mouthpiece.
It's a moot question being asked of all of those polled and it makes absolutely no difference or sense in the context of our electoral system.
If people really want Meehole as Taoiseach they should vote for FF. If not, then vote for anyone else.
Our media and especially RTÉ should be ashamed of themselves. Though they won't be.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
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