Cowen gone this week

[Spudulika]

I know that it's all to play for, but the shoving from slimy Martin and the posse of the damned look like they have finally removed another of Irish politics legacy office holders. I was told by an FG insider that their "sources" are saying that Cowen will resign tomorrow and an election be called for mid-next month.

[BonnieShels]

Cowen to stay...

[Spudulika]

Events moved quickly since I posted this. Maybe I was a day early - in that he'll go tomorrow. Great listening to the TD's lining up to support Cowen, now John Curran is on board. Martin blundered, he's lost the top job now - unless he transfers to FG :-)

[Mr A]

Always felt that the first to move would not win the leadership- hence they were all too scared to actually make a real move. Looks like Cowen has outflanked them and will most likely hold on.

What we need now is for him to win the vote, then for yet more stuff to come out about his cosy relationship with the Golden Circle

[Spudulika]

The Waterford Witterer is on PK now, 2 people you'd never tire of slapping.

Agree with you on the fear factor, I see this as being FF's mandarins making sure they get back into power with another snake in charge.

[juan]

Cowen is supposed to have said to a local Radio Station that Michael Martin's offer to resign as Minister is staying on the table until after the Fianna Fail parliamentary party meeting tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be very interesting. Are the "Conspiritors" uniting behind Martin or are the likes of Hanafin and Lenihan looking to takeover too?

[dahamsta]

Cowen is supposed to have said to a local Radio Station that Michael Martin's offer to resign as Minister is staying on the table until after the Fianna Fail parliamentary party meeting tomorrow.

Since he rejected it yesterday, does that mean he doesn't actually believe himself at this stage?

Tomorrow will be very interesting. Are the "Conspiritors" uniting behind Martin or are the likes of Hanafin and Lenihan looking to takeover too?

I don't think Lenihan has the balls, and if he does go for it, I hope he gets shafted.

[Macy]

I don't think Lenihan has the balls, and if he does go for it, I hope he gets shafted.

Aye, echo that.

All three current pretenders are in serious danger of not being elected in the General Election - would the leaders bounce offset the reduced local profile? I hope not...

[Spudulika]

I can't see how Martin will be re-elected after this, surely the voters will see it's a set up. Cowen badly needs to get Mary O'Rourke off the scene as she's going to angle for one of her boys to go for top spot. I'd take them all out the back of the Dail and do a Ceaucescu on them.

[Mr A]

I can't see how Martin will be re-elected after this, surely the voters will see it's a set up.

If anything they'll see it as one of their own being shafted by them hoors up in Dublin. That's Irish politics.

[Spudulika]

Thanks Mr. A, I keep forgetting that it'll be looked at like that. Look at the heads who have been disgraced but re-elected.

[Eminence Grise]

Cowen’s phone calls suggested he has the numbers to win, so he’s called the conspirators’ bluff. The problem for them is that the first to move is the first to be gunned down. In the blink-off, Martin panicked first.

He has the most to lose – he’s been tipped as a leader for almost a decade, and his reputation has been smeared by references to indecisiveness. If he didn’t act now (and I don’t think he wanted to – hence Hamlet on the Leeside), he would have confirmed his dithering nature, and probably wouldn’t get another chance. But, remember, this is a man who threatened to offer his resignation and who has campaigned half-heartedly at best.

Spudulika, I think you momentarily underestimated the Cork propensity for victimhood and martyrology: a good shafting would set Tricky Micky up to top the poll. Disgruntled FF voters could safely vote for him as a protest against the party and Dublin/Offaly langers. Warped logic, but this is FF. And, more pertinently, FF in Cork – whose dissident TDs some texter to Pat Kenny’s show today called the Four Corkmen of the Apocalypse....

Meanwhile, Lenihan’s been very quiet. Don’t rule out a succession deal between Cowen and him. I suspect Schoolmarm Hanafin, who doesn’t drink with the boys in the Dáil bar, might have to satisfy her ambitions by supporting another candidate for the leadership, with her as deputy.

No matter who gets it, I wish them a spectacularly long career as the first FF leader never to be Taoiseach!

[osarusan]

Pat Rabbitte made a point on TV during the week that with so few FF TD's safe in their seats, the prospect of facing into an election soon after challenging but failing to depose Cowen as leader is possibly stopping challengers from emerging.

[BonnieShels]

EG, bang on the money.

One thing I will add though, Lenny's gonna keep schism simply because:
1. He knew he would be at a Euro meeting today so no need to say anything at all over the weekend.
2. The ballot is secret so he can just say after tomorrow that he supported x knowing that no one will know.
3. It's In his interests for Cowen to lead into the next GE as he will take a lot of flak for Lenny.
4. Mammy and Kebab can do any dirty work for him and he can deflect it.
5. Whoever leads FF into the next election is going to lose and therefore will not stay on. in theory. Lenny can take up the mantle then.

[Dodge]

Will Lenihan's health hold up? I thought he only worked 4 day weeks?

[Macy]

Will Lenihan's health hold up? I thought he only worked 4 day weeks?

I think his success in the election would be more an issue at this stage tbh, I think (hope) people are seeing him for what he is, finally. Has his health really been the issue it's been made out to be?

[bluemovie]

The Waterford Witterer is on PK now,

Who?

Will Lenihan's health hold up? I thought he only worked 4 day weeks?

The word from the Lenihan camp (with their regular helpful leaks and comments from auntie and little bro) is that his cancer has stabilised and he's fully able to continue working (and would love to lead FF).

I'm ecstatic that Cowen is staying on. Fianna Fail will be annihilated with him as leader. I always gave them credit for being shrewd electoral tacticians, but how stupid are they to face the country with one of the chief architects of the bust in charge? They're asking the electorate to consider Cowen's record and put him back into government for another five years. I can see the posters now: his fat head with the slogan "A lot of damage done. More to do".

As has been said, he obviously knows he has the numbers to win the confidence motion having spoken to TDs over the weekend, otherwise he wouldn't have called for the vote. Lenihan was clearly keeping quiet, waiting in the long grass for a heave. Often the person who starts the coup loses out. Didn't Heseltine stick the knife in Thatcher, but the loyal Major got the job? This must be what O Cuiv (did I mention who my grandfather was?) is hoping for, but he has zero chance. If FF had a new leader they might con a few of the more gullible voters into believing they'd changed, but Cowen may as well have Seanie Fitz and Mikey Fingers canvassing for him. If Cowen leads them into the election, I'm revising my estimate from 45 FF seats to 35. Fingers crossed.

[The Fly]

EG, bang on the money.

I had to double check who you were referring to.

[mypost]

Mammy and Kebab can do any dirty work for him and he can deflect it.

Cowen's opponents need 36 votes to oust him, and begin a leadership contest between themselves. So far, they have 7 declared votes. FF heaves are notoriously dirty, so there'll be plenty of backstabbers around before the vote is taken. We've already seen some of it from both sides in the media.

[Kingdom]

All this talk of for and against, what does it matter? It's a secret ballot, the actual tallies probably won't be announced so there will probably be plenty of talking from both sides of the mouth being done.