Election 2011 - General

**superfrank** · 14/01/2011, 6:44 PM

Gilmore said that on the news. They'll have to wait an extra week, iirc, to get it into the Dail.

**Macy** · 14/01/2011, 8:18 PM

Originally Posted by Eminence Grise

I think Gilmore has miscalculated: it might actually be the one thing that keeps Cowen in a job.

That'd be better than some bounce from a new leader. It's a win win. And even if one of the pretenders grows a pair in the meantime, they'll have to stand up and defend the Governments record and enforce their ties with this Government bankrupting the country.

And btw John A Costello wasn't leader of any party when he was Taoiseach. Precedent me arse.

**BonnieShels** · 14/01/2011, 11:23 PM

As was said on Nova earlier, most ffers think that not only is he an *******, he's our *******!

**Eminence Grise** · 15/01/2011, 11:10 AM

Indeed, Bonnie! If Cowen bullies enough support, it could galvanise FF�s core vote (Brian bates them Dublin meeja hoors). Result: losses, but not meltdown. Enter a new leader, FF regroups, gains at the 2014 elections, and wins the 2015/6 election.

A new leader could get a bounce. But Martin, Hanafin, Lenihan and O�Cuiv (the compromise?) are identifiable with failure. None would have time to halt FF�s decline. And no one�s seat is so secure they could spend three weeks campaigning for everybody else.

Labour migdht have played this better if they kept up a media storm, increasing pressure on Cowen via backbenchers and grass roots. By the time it�s debated, Cowen will either be

in situ with sullen but chastened supporter
Taoiseach but not FF leader
a backbencher

In the first case, Labour could be presented as petty politickers (rich, coming from FF). They might drop slightly in the polls, if voters prefer FG�s line (FF�s house is burning - we don�t need matches), or decide that Caoimhin O�Caolain damaged Cowen. In the last two, the need to build on the bounce might see FF drag out the election as long as possible. They won�t go quietly...

**Macy** · 15/01/2011, 2:19 PM

Originally Posted by Eminence Grise

Indeed, Bonnie! If Cowen bullies enough support, it could galvanise FF’s core vote (Brian bates them Dublin meeja hoors). Result: losses, but not meltdown. Enter a new leader, FF regroups, gains at the 2014 elections, and wins the 2015/6 election.

Didn't work for Cowen the last time he tried to bully his way through a crisis. Cowen is an asset for the Opposition going into an election - the labour motion either ensures he's there to face the music if the circle the wagons theory is correct or he's replaced by someone who has to basically stand up and endorse his policies aganist the motion, and the rest of FF/Greens have to vote to endorse those policies as well. Or there's an election on Labours rather than FF's terms.

**Lim till i die** · 15/01/2011, 6:01 PM

Lot of assumption on here that Labours motion was actually thought out and not just yet another scrambled attempt at beating Sinn Fein to the populist vote by copying them and making a louder noise about it.

Cowen will be gone by middle of next week surely. O'Cuiv would be hilarious.

**Mr A** · 15/01/2011, 6:43 PM

This article takes Cowen to the cleaners. It's mad to think he could survive this situation, but he might.

**dahamsta** · 15/01/2011, 6:55 PM

Originally Posted by Mr A

This article takes Cowen to the cleaners. It's mad to think he could survive this situation, but he might.

As ever, the Indo writers don't have the balls to sign their names to their comments.

**Lim till i die** · 15/01/2011, 7:10 PM

When do we get to see what Bomber Harris thinks of the whole thing?? Now there's a man with courage in his convictions.

**BonnieShels** · 15/01/2011, 8:55 PM

Big announcement on Brendan O'Connor Show. Sunday Times to reveal their explosive headline from tomorrow's paper at 10pm on Twitter and Cowen has apparently resigned down in the local. It's Saturday and still this crap goes on...

**Billsthoughts** · 15/01/2011, 9:11 PM

Originally Posted by dahamsta

As ever, the Indo writers don't have the balls to sign their names to their comments.

Its Bruce Arnold. Its in the main paper. The website seems to do that a lot tho.

**BonnieShels** · 15/01/2011, 9:38 PM

Shane Ross is running on Dublin South. That's the big announcement.

**culloty82** · 16/01/2011, 7:22 AM

Being joined by David McWilliams and Paul Sommerville, according to the Tribune.

**Billsthoughts** · 16/01/2011, 10:15 AM

david mcwilliams is qouted in other papers saying he has no interest in running. no interest in the local issues a td has to deal with.

**Dodge** · 16/01/2011, 3:05 PM

Cowen to address media at 5 this evening. RTE to cover to live

**BonnieShels** · 16/01/2011, 4:01 PM

He's gonna stay... that's my thinking. Live on Sky News

**BonnieShels** · 16/01/2011, 4:16 PM

He's sticking around. Like a bad smell or a one night stand.

EDIT: Mehole Martin to have a press conference within the hour.

**culloty82** · 16/01/2011, 7:20 PM

Martin offered resignation as a minister, but Cowen refused it. Will oppose the confidence motion, will be interesting to see Hanafin's stance.

**dahamsta** · 16/01/2011, 7:48 PM

Cowen showing himself up for the idiot child he truly is. Feck off back to Offaly Cowen, you're not wanted by anyone bar your hangers on.

Here's hoping O'Keefe is first against the wall.

**Billsthoughts** · 16/01/2011, 8:50 PM

he consulted all of the party all weekend so now he is going to have a vote. what the hell was he consulting the party for then? surely he knows the result of the vote! talk about a non event of a press conference.