Election 2011 - General

**OneRedArmy** · 04/11/2010, 1:17 PM

Originally Posted by Dodge

Seriously though, on the day the government are to announce they need to cut €6billion from the budget, they're going to appeal the decision of the courts to force athe by-election to the Supreme Courts...

And not one of them sees the irony there?

Have they not moved the writ and set the date for Nov 25th?

More interestingly, they interviewed a few local constituents on the radio this morning who basically said said that as long as the Cabinet stay well away from the campaign FF have a 50/50 chance of retaining the seat as its absolute FF heartland. Gotta love parish pump politics!

**Dodge** · 04/11/2010, 1:22 PM

Aye

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/donegal.html

To even think about it though....

**Macy** · 04/11/2010, 1:33 PM

Originally Posted by OneRedArmy

are there any mobile phones licences left to give away?

I would suspect he's more interested in Casino Licences these days.

But Dodge, it's in the National Interest to deny the people their democratic rights! ZanuFF is becoming more and more apt...

**Lim till i die** · 04/11/2010, 4:10 PM

The reason for appealing the decision to the Supreme Court is an utterly transparent scam to stop people in Waterford and Dublin South taking similar action to the Shinner in Donegal.

**culloty82** · 04/11/2010, 7:01 PM

Fine Gael are still taking cases over both anyway.

**mypost** · 04/11/2010, 9:13 PM

Originally Posted by culloty82

Fine Gael are still taking cases over both anyway.

FG were monumentally stupid in waiting as long as they have to take legal action, and are only doing so following the decision of the Donegal SW case. That Dublin South vacancy has been so for 9 months, and was vacant before Lee was elected for a similiar amount of time.

**Macy** · 05/11/2010, 7:14 AM

Originally Posted by mypost

FG were monumentally stupid in waiting as long as they have to take legal action, and are only doing so following the decision of the Donegal SW case. That Dublin South vacancy has been so for 9 months, and was vacant before Lee was elected for a similiar amount of time.

I'm not so sure, there's no guarantee that the same result would've, or even will, result from the other two.

Lim till i die is right though - they won't even say what exactly they are appealing, and won't ask for it to be heard quickly, it's a total delaying tactic. The Republican Party?

**Eminence Grise** · 05/11/2010, 12:55 PM

Following today’s news, I will happily give my vote to whichever party gives me the best cheeseboard for Christmas! A good tawny port is optional, but would secure a favourable vote in the next referendum as well. (I don’t want to appear too cheap, after all...)

The front runners so far:

Fianna Fáil – cottage cheese (thick, lumpy and tasteless. Curdles and turns sour quickly but is inexplicably kept around for very long periods)

Greens – chèvre (handmade with the organic, unpasteurised milk from pampered goats who have given their permission to be milked by Dieter und his vife Maureen in the wilds of Connemara)

Fine Gael – Crozier Blue (combines the saltiness of good old-fashioned blue-shirtism, with a pious whack of right wing conservatism)

Labour - Edam (thick Red outer layer, but pale and utterly bland underneath. Made with milk from cows reared on very expensive land)

Sinn Fein – Wicklow Blue Brie (whiter than white surface belies a centre with a pungent whiff of corruption. Allegedly. Matured in underground bunkers all over the country. Allegedly)

Independents and Non-party – Easi Singles (individually wrapped, will go with anything. No flavour, but a whiff of opportunism pervades. The cheese of choice in Kerry, Tipperary...)

**Mr A** · 05/11/2010, 8:31 PM

An unnamed minister reckons the budget will be defeated: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/m...ed-480607.html

**mypost** · 05/11/2010, 10:20 PM

They will vote for the budget. All of the government will.

But the possibility that they might not will keep the journos happy for a few weeks.

**Aberdonian Stu** · 06/11/2010, 9:35 PM

Well if it were to lose it would make for a bit of a messed up timing situation for an election. Assuming, and it's a big assumption, a budget defeat caused an election you're looking at the election being called December 10th or so (Budget on the 7th) which in a 3 to 5 week campaign cycle makes January 14th pretty much the latest it could be held. That would be very messy timing.

**mypost** · 07/11/2010, 1:38 AM

Originally Posted by Aberdonian Stu

Well if it were to lose it would make for a bit of a messed up timing situation for an election. Assuming, and it's a big assumption, a budget defeat caused an election you're looking at the election being called December 10th or so (Budget on the 7th) which in a 3 to 5 week campaign cycle makes January 14th pretty much the latest it could be held. That would be very messy timing.

Even more messed up considering the 5-week Christmas break. Can't see it happening.

Also, can someone explain what happens in 2012 regarding a General Election if there is one next year as well? Certainly in recent history, there has always been an election in the years that end in 2 and 7, even though the government hadn't always served it's full 5-year term at the time.

**dahamsta** · 07/11/2010, 2:22 AM

It'll just push out. Elections aren't like the WC and Olympics.

**BonnieShels** · 07/11/2010, 2:51 AM

The feeling of exasperation that pervades in this country is unbelievable. How it can be perceived that The People don't have the appetite for an election I don't know. Tbh if the budget passes there should be a mass resignation of all opposition TD's. That seemingly is the only way to be rid of this ff disease that pervades this nation. I couldn't handle the idea of waiting til the spring.
Another thing though that I don't understand is how anyone without any sense of irony would say that they would vote for ff if they stood in the north of the country. How John Bruton's lapdog showing with the Prince of Wales over 15 years ago is more heinous than the destruction of this State's economy and society by FF is beyond me. Also let's not forget the high esteem some of FF's former Taoisigh namely Lynch, are held in the north. Especially in South Armagh.

**mypost** · 07/11/2010, 9:03 AM

Originally Posted by BonnieShels

The feeling of exasperation that pervades in this country is unbelievable. How it can be perceived that The People don't have the appetite for an election I don't know. Tbh if the budget passes there should be a mass resignation of all opposition TD's. That seemingly is the only way to be rid of this ff disease that pervades this nation.

Don't understand how that could work. The budget votes will pass 82 to 80, even Bertie will be wheeled out to do his bit for his party and walk up the Yes Aisle.

I see the government's argument that they don't want a bye-election, yet alone a general one. If there is an early election, the Markets won't take it well and may increase the interest rate in the 6-week period between the call of the election and the new Taoiseach (Kenny) is elected. Brussels are happy to deal with FF as it gives them stability, I don't know how they'll take to Kenny. Frankfurt may also be concerned that FF budget policies will be useless until the new government is formed, drafts, and implements another budget, which is likely to be another 6 weeks and very different, so you're looking at possibly 3 months of economic time-wasting in the EU's eyes, time we can't afford.

Of course, for Mary and Miley at home, it's all a load of nonsense. They just want FF gone, whatever it takes.

**culloty82** · 07/11/2010, 3:08 PM

First Donegal opinion poll published in today's Sindo:

FF 35%
SF 25%
=FG 20%
=Lab 20%

Mr A no doubt will know how accurate or otherwise this is.

**Mr A** · 07/11/2010, 7:58 PM

Amazing in a couple of ways.

Massive numbers for FF and Lab. Awful, awful, awful for FG. SF you would expect in the circumstances.

Mary Coughlan must be swinging it, probably has credit for every small thing opened up there this last few years.

**OneRedArmy** · 08/11/2010, 9:24 AM

Donegal proving Donegal won't be told to do anything by those city slickers down in Dublin. It is absolute FF heartland and whilst people will say its more about the candidate, I don't believe it. It will take the country to sink before that part of the country deserts FF.

I agree the FG share is the big shocker. By comparison, in 2007 Labour had 2.6% first prefs with FG 23%!!! (SF 21%).

**Macy** · 08/11/2010, 9:58 AM

Massive caveat to that poll is that it's in the Sindo (FF's equivalent of An Phoblacht)

Nothing would surprise me with Donegal - they must have had a lobotomy when it comes to politics. Or maybe I'm mistaken and FF have provided loads of jobs and loads of investment since 97, and I'm wrong that it has been behind in terms of employment, investment etc etc. Still I'm sure their dad voted FF, and their dad before them...

**Mr A** · 08/11/2010, 10:30 AM

The transfers in this contest are going to be absolutely fascinating. Much could depend on whether Lab or FG were eliminated first. Lab votes would probably break to FG and SF, while I'd say FG would go more towards Lab with very few for SF. But can SF actually start picking up transfers? In the past that has been a big problem for them. I think this time might be different.

And what about transfers to FF? I could see them getting a decent 1st preference vote and then having the lead eaten away as the opposition parties all transfer to each other. This byelection will tell us a lot about what way the wind is blowing, even if Donegal tends to be very slow to change.

And what makes that Labour number even more astonishing is that McBrearty is... not sure how to put this but let's just say that anyone I've spoken to who knows him has a very poor opinion of him. Not sure how the hell he ended up in Labour to be honest. But then sometimes being known is the most important thing.