Election 2011 - General

**mypost** · 19/02/2011, 8:53 PM

TV is a powerful judge of a political leader. Gilmore was well ahead until the soundbites stopped and the debating started.

**Macy** · 21/02/2011, 10:47 AM

Originally Posted by mypost

TV is a powerful judge of a political leader. Gilmore was well ahead until the soundbites stopped and the debating started.

I don't think that's true - it's more that the FG/FF campaigns have been better about portraying that, and Labour have had a poor campaign. They've got the opposite of the "big mo" and it's hard to turn that around. Started with a few poor performances by Joan Burton, and then the right wing media bricking it about the possibility of a left wing alternative which raised it's head after the byelection, which lead to constant attacks on Labour, SF (who have also suffered from this) and the ULA.

**mypost** · 21/02/2011, 4:44 PM

There haven't been any media attacks on Labour from what I can see. Gilmore has brought all the grief on his party by himself. His posters, (for a party which currently has as little as 20 seats) looked preposterous. His debating skills when it mattered, fell well short of the public's expectations. He and his party haven't slipped so far so fast in the polls for no reason.

There are good people in Labour, strong candidates, but if he doesn't get into office, he will have to step down, and Labour will have to do more soul-searching. Labour won't have such an open-goal against FF again.

**Mr A** · 22/02/2011, 7:49 AM

While I agree that Labour have run a pretty dreadful campaign, the bias of the likes of the Indo against them is constant.

**Macy** · 22/02/2011, 8:08 AM

Just because you believe the myth mypost, doesn't make it true.

The bias isn't just against Labour, it's against the left in general. It doesn't matter how many economists agree with the shinners on the nonsense of the EU/IMF deal, the media is still happy to portray them as some sort of nutjobs who haven't a clue. Now maybe they are, but there's enough academic support for their viewpoint that at least makes it a valid opinion.

**peadar1987** · 22/02/2011, 1:28 PM

Originally Posted by Macy

Just because you believe the myth mypost, doesn't make it true.

The bias isn't just against Labour, it's against the left in general. It doesn't matter how many economists agree with the shinners on the nonsense of the EU/IMF deal, the media is still happy to portray them as some sort of nutjobs who haven't a clue. Now maybe they are, but there's enough academic support for their viewpoint that at least makes it a valid opinion.

It's always the way. For an extreme case, look at the US. When your news is delivered by major for-profit corporations, of course they aren't going to encourage the idea of higher taxation and improved public services. And the state broadcasters are always obliged to be impartial, it's all very one-sided.

**culloty82** · 22/02/2011, 8:00 PM

Not sure if this is the final opinion poll, but the Indo has FG and Labour holding steady and FF back to Cowenesque support levels:

FG 38% (+1)
Lab: 20% (0)
Ind: 16% (+2)
FF: 14% (-2)
SF: 11% (-1)
GP: 1% (0)

**BonnieShels** · 23/02/2011, 9:29 AM

This is he final opinion poll... FG hit the magic number...

RedC/PaddyPower 23rd Feb: FG 40 +1, Lab 18 +1, FF 15 -1, SF 10 -1, Green 3 +1, Ind 14

**mypost** · 23/02/2011, 9:31 AM

It's still not enough imo. FF got 41% on results day last time, and got 78 seats. Based on that, FG need another 2-3% to get into majority territory.

**Mr A** · 23/02/2011, 10:22 AM

But FG will be more transfer friendly than FF ever were.. could be a close run thing.

**Macy** · 23/02/2011, 11:07 AM

Originally Posted by Mr A

But FG will be more transfer friendly than FF ever were.. could be a close run thing.

And they still have the big mo - they're still going up in the polls, even if it is in within the margin of error.

**dahamsta** · 23/02/2011, 11:22 AM

I've paid very little attention to the polls this time around, they've proved complete nonsense every year I've watched them. The gate polls are really the only ones that matter, and even they've been known to get it very, very wrong.

**legendz** · 23/02/2011, 8:23 PM

I haven't paid much attention to the polls either. It's worrying if most of the people only makes their minds up over the last few weeks. The last few years give a good indication. When FG and Labour were last in power they did a good job. If one or both are given the opportunity again, I hope they can do so again.

**The Dark Knight** · 24/02/2011, 3:26 PM

FF wil do better than most experts expect. The personal factor will kick in, people I've spoken to have said no way would they vote FF but when pressed admit they will vote for their local canidate.

FG could be on the cusp of an overall majority but I think will fall about 10 seats short.

Labour will do well by its own standards, but will fall well short of what they expect.

The Greens will come back with one maybe two seats.

Sinn Fein will have about 8-10 seats and will be below their own expectations.

Independents will be the major winners, if enough get elected FG could lead a Government with independents and without Labour. This is their prefered option. If this comes to pass I think we could be headed for an election in 2013. Enda Kenny will then be seen as either a very good or very bad leader. I think the latter and FF will have had two years to rebuild its reputation, and could be back in the game again.

I predict

FG 73
FF 34
Lab 33
SF 8
Green 1
Ind 17 (Inc small parties Socialist parties)

**Dodge** · 24/02/2011, 3:29 PM

You've 5 too many there....

**The Dark Knight** · 24/02/2011, 3:38 PM

Originally Posted by Dodge

You've 5 too many there....

166 seats in the dail - am I adding them wrong? (again)

**osarusan** · 24/02/2011, 3:55 PM

Harry McGee from the Irish Times:

My predictions: Fine Gael 79; Fianna Fail 21; Labour 34; Sinn Fein 10; Independents 16; ULA 3; GP 2.

If the Greeen Party lose those two seats, the gains will go to ULA (1) and Lab (1).

**Dodge** · 24/02/2011, 4:04 PM

Originally Posted by The Dark Knight

166 seats in the dail - am I adding them wrong? (again)

Nah, must've read them wrong - apologies! Only 165 up for election BTW (CC is automatic)

**culloty82** · 24/02/2011, 4:44 PM

I'd say FG will fall just short of a majority, not quite enough to do a deal with independents:

FG 78
Lab 35
FF 22
SF 13
Ind 18 (United Left 4)
Greens 0

**dahamsta** · 24/02/2011, 6:03 PM

I think the FF voters will come out of the woodwork again, but I hope they don't get as many seats as Dark Knight predicts; and I'd like to see SF get more than he predicts. I'd also love to see FG get a kick at the ballot box at the expense of Labour, they'd make a bad situation worse if they get in on their own. I'd like to see them in coalition with a strong Labour. (Ideally I'd like it the other way around, with different leaders, but that's not going to happen.)