Election 2011 - General

[Macy]

Who's for an FG minority government?

FG-FF coalition - the only one that makes sense on the figures!

You are right, long term it isn't the worst news for Labour if they are clear leaders of the opposition - could effectively seal FF's fate, as they are counting on being leaders of the opposition for their long term survival. Also, could FF survive financially at that number of seats? They're broke as it is, and then obviously they'll be way down on state funding. I suppose the developers would find a way to funnel money back from Marbella...

[tetsujin1979]

my friend Adam is doing a masters at the moment based around social searches, and is looking for volunteers to watch the leader's debate, monitor twitter and eat pizza in DCU tonight
You can contact him via twitter here: http://twitter.com/#!/adambermingham/

[culloty82]

The Boards poll is a load of nonsense, but entertaining nonsense all the same, I'd say you'ld get hefty odds.

[legendz]

I hope FG do not do any deals whatsoever with FF. Labour got burned for that in '97. If a look is taken at the European political groupings, FG and Labour belong to the two biggest groupings and FF are only are minority in Europe. I think people's interest are best served with either Fine Gael or Labour depending on whether they are left or right.

[culloty82]

I hope FG do not do any deals whatsoever with FF. Labour got burned for that in '97. If a look is taken at the European political groupings, FG and Labour belong to the two biggest groupings and FF are only are minority in Europe. I think people's interest are best served with either Fine Gael or Labour depending on whether they are left or right.

Going by the Indo's poll, there mightn't even be much of an FF left to do any deals:

FG 38%
Lab 23%
Oth 16%
FF 12%
SF 10%
GP 1%

Their seat predictions based on this:

FG 78
Lab 42
Ind 14
=FF 13
=SF 13
ULA 6

[Kingdom]

Going by the Indo's poll, there mightn't even be much of an FF left to do any deals:

FG 38%
Lab 23%
Oth 16%
FF 12%
SF 10%
GP 1%

Their seat predictions based on this:

FG 78
Lab 42
Ind 14
=FF 13
=SF 13
ULA 6

Lads can someone help me out here.... take the figures quoted above, there is no clear overall majority for FG but the numbers are so bad for everyone else, it would take the coalition of all coalitions to overtake FG, what happens?

[Macy]

The gerrymandering of the consitituencies mean that they'll be an over representation of FG in seat terms. Again can I just laugh at FF being a major loser because of the number of 3 and 4 seaters .

Can't see a coalition of everyone else to keep FG out, too many clashing interests, even among "others". If FG fall short, it will really come down to independents - I can't see FG giving enough up for Labour to go in at this stage, and there is an attraction to Labour of being the largest and clear opposition and finally having a left right divide, with a labour led left wing coalition the next election. All assuming the figures stay the same of course.

[Real ale Madrid]

Lads can someone help me out here.... take the figures quoted above, there is no clear overall majority for FG but the numbers are so bad for everyone else, it would take the coalition of all coalitions to overtake FG, what happens?

It would be incumbent on FG - the party with the most seats to negotiate with the minority parties. FG / FF could be a viable option, given the figures quoted above. As would FG / SF and the obvious FG / Lab. I worse FF do, the more chance FG teaming up with them imo.

I would hate to see independents form part of the next Government - that should be one of big lessons from the last 13 years and we should be looking to avoid.

[geysir]

Gilmore referred to this election being a defining/decisive election for the next 20 years.
I think he was referring to, that the choices made by the people re electing a new government will have a heavy influence on the state of the nation for the next 20 years.
I doubt it, the immediate issue facing the new government will be default and how we default, or else face a worse chaos. A FG government avoiding the issue of default can't last more than 18 months and in all likelihood there will be a string of elections amidst social and political chaos

Would Gilmore/Labour not be better off with a longer term plan, instead of hoping for coalition appointment should they not hope/plan for a FG majority and plan ahead for the election after this one?
Do the words of one of the Green Party ex ministers really hold water, that one bad day in government is worth a year on the opposition - or something to that effect?

Good God! Micheál Martin is singing "My ol' man's a busdriver" on the FF party political broadcast on RTE.

[mypost]

It would be incumbent on FG - the party with the most seats to negotiate with the minority parties. FG / FF could be a viable option, given the figures quoted above.

It's a viable option on the figures, but not on practicality. I think Enda would rather emigrate than hop into bed with the enemy. The public wouldn't take it very well either.

Still looks like a nailed-on FG/Labour coalition, and for both parties sake, that's probably the best option. In the current climate, a sole FG majority could be a disaster for them when the cuts/policies are implemented, and the public turn on them.

[culloty82]

A political compass type site that's exclusively Irish.

[Spudulika]

No matter who gets in I can't see the government lasting more than 2-3 years, then a massive break down and a new election with Monty Martin leading the soldiers of destiny to glory, with Labour in tow. Love to see FG-SF, never happen though.

culloty: thanks for the link, I just realised I'm against FG and FF and heavily Labour and SF, and mildly Green. Sorry Enda, I think I just found my inner red

[John83]

A political compass type site that's exclusively Irish.

I gave up on page 2, when it asked whether I agree or disagree that a fund which has already been spent should be invested in infrastructure.

[mypost]

No matter who gets in I can't see the government lasting more than 2-3 years, then a massive break down and a new election with Monty Martin leading the soldiers of destiny to glory, with Labour in tow. Love to see FG-SF, never happen though.

culloty: thanks for the link, I just realised I'm against FG and FF and heavily Labour and SF, and mildly Green. Sorry Enda, I think I just found my inner red

I do want a change of government and I'm happy with Enda as Taoiseach, but FG's economic policies worry me, as they sound FF-lite, especially when it comes to social welfare, which hasn't played a big part in the campaign. I think Labour's economic policies are fairer.

Nationally they need each other for stability. A FF-majority would be wafer thin and vulnerable to a couple of Dail rebel votes, as the last government constantly was.

[Macy]

Still looks like a nailed-on FG/Labour coalition

It's not looked less nailed on for bloody years. FG won't want to give up enough cabinet seats to make it worth Labours while or Labour have to go in with little influence and at least an equal share of the blame.

Labour have the chance to lead the following Government if they let FG take the hit for the coming cuts/ taxes - finally forcing the left right split. It would also help FG long term, as they'll become the natural right wing alternative with FF possibly third in the opposition pecking order and their future in doubt.

Caveat is obviously if the current seat projections/ polls are accurate, I can't see a FG-Labour coalition.

[Spudulika]

I do want a change of government and I'm happy with Enda as Taoiseach, but FG's economic policies worry me, as they sound FF-lite, especially when it comes to social welfare, which hasn't played a big part in the campaign. I think Labour's economic policies are fairer.

Nationally they need each other for stability. A FF-majority would be wafer thin and vulnerable to a couple of Dail rebel votes, as the last government constantly was.

Agree with you on the FG economic policies, it's a reason I am less than keen on Varadkar as he really hasn't a clue what he's talking about - you know once he opens his mouth he's spouting the type of Maggie Thatcher rhetoric that makes FF look clever. Labour and SF have economic policies that at least try to account for the public in general.

I've said it before and I still think it'll be a FF-Labour government, with a few indies thrown in!

[Macy]

i've said it before and i still think it'll be a ff-labour government, with a few indies thrown in!

they won't have the feckin numbers!!!!!

On current numbers FF and Labour would be around 60 - that's some number of indies to make up to 83!

[geysir]

You might well worry about FG policies, the destructive core is all hidden in obfuscation.
One FG spoof is about the Health system. FG say they want to adopt the Dutch model.

The actual text in the FG manifesto reads
"Our ultimate goal is to establish a system of Universal Health Insurance (UHI), based on the very efficient Dutch model – but adapted to Irish circumstances"

The Dutch model has compulsary (with some opt outs) state insurance for long term care and private strictly regulated insurance for other health care.
When FG say they will adapt this model for the Irish circumstances, actually they look at a Van Gogh and decide to sketch a cow in the field on the back of a sheet of paper.
FG will not have compulsary state insurance for long term care, they will totally privatise insurance to administer the system but retain the restricted medical card system.
Any resemblance to the Dutch model will be purely coincidental.
Even with that, the Dutch model has not proven itself to be more efficient than what existed before nor has it reduced costs.

When FG write "adapting to Irish circumstances" means adapting a decent enough structure down to the level of cheap suit dysfunctional capabilities of the FG leaders.

[John83]

You might well worry about FG policies, the destructive core is all hidden in obfuscation.
One FG spoof is about the Health system. FG say they want to adopt the Dutch model.

The actual text in the FG manifesto reads
"Our ultimate goal is to establish a system of Universal Health Insurance (UHI), based on the very efficient Dutch model – but adapted to Irish circumstances"

The Dutch model has compulsary (with some opt outs) state insurance for long term care and private strictly regulated insurance for other health care.
When FG say they will adapt this model for the Irish circumstances, actually they look at a Van Gogh and decide to sketch a cow in the field on the back of a sheet of paper.
FG will not have compulsary state insurance for long term care, they will totally privatise insurance to administer the system but retain the restricted medical card system.
Any resemblance to the Dutch model will be purely coincidental.
Even with that, the Dutch model has not proven itself to be more efficient than what existed before nor has it reduced costs.

When FG write "adapting to Irish circumstances" means adapting a decent enough structure down to the level of cheap suit dysfunctional capabilities of the FG leaders.

Geysir, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I detest rambling diatribes about how things are going to be **** because of a wild guess at the details of something. Do you have anything to base your assertions on, or have you just decided that FG can't possibly get it right*.

*Granted, it's healthcare, no one ever gets it right, and if they did, local interests would immediately bring the system down.

[BonnieShels]

SBP Red C poll: FG: 39% (+1), Lab: 17% (-3), FF: 16% (+1), SF: 12% (+2), Grns: 2% (-1), Ind: 14% (nc)

And the Sindo one is...



FF 16% (+4), FG 37% (-1) Lab 20% (-3) Grn 1% (-) SF 12% (+2) Ind 14% (-2)

Enda is also the more popular choice for Taoiseach in both polls.

Now,that my friends is a turnaround and a half.