Election 2011 - General

[Fr Damo]

BCF.....Epitome of all that FF stood for. Promoted Tax evasion, in bed with a developer (literally) and from political dynasty who showed contempt of anybody who questioned them.

Noel Dempsey, really effed up last year with the bad weather and his Malta holiday. Both would probably got back in the dail though this shows there true colours lie in so far as they can make more cash from a Td's pension (+minister's pension in the case of ND) and private sector income than they can as an opposition TD. The constituents of their respective parishes can now see them for exactly what they and many more like them actually are

[Macy]

Noel Dempsey, really effed up last year with the bad weather and his Malta holiday. Both would probably got back in the dail though this shows there true colours lie in so far as they can make more cash from a Td's pension (+minister's pension in the case of ND) and private sector income than they can as an opposition TD. The constituents of their respective parishes can now see them for exactly what they and many more like them actually are

Also his "achievements" include Electronic Voting, and lest we forget his fondness for the Government jet. Probably a fair amount of public sector wage bill savings in overtime between following cops in cars, and flight time for the boys from Baldonnell!

[Billsthoughts]

Labour had upset people by going with Fianna Fail in '92 which is why they lost so much support..

I never understood this at all. Electorate punished a party for going into government with Fianna Fail by voting Fianna Fail.
An Irish solution to an Irish problem!

[bennocelt]

I never understood this at all. Electorate punished a party for going into government with Fianna Fail by voting Fianna Fail.
An Irish solution to an Irish problem!

Not everybody votes for FF by the way

[BonnieShels]

I'm sure a fair few did bennocelt. The numbers say so.
Anyway, listening to the numbers the last few days there's a definite fall off into reality when labours numbers are analysed. SF and FG will be the big winners at this election.

[legendz]

From owners of football clubs who've spent recklessly and then look for bailouts, to bankers and the government, it's crazy how the people in power keep their positions.
It'll be interesting to see if the National Forum decide to run candidates.

[BonnieShels]

Well its Ireland. Not much more cam he said about that.
Oh the national forum and the united left. Great. I'll consider them...

[culloty82]

Newstalk and all local radio stations joined up to do a constituency-by constituency breakdown of election prediction. Very unscientific methodology - asked people in each station to give their predictions and mixed that with poll averages, but here are the figures for what it's worth:

Fine Gael: 63
Fianna Fáil: 43
Labour: 40
Sinn Féin: 6
Greens: 2
Others: 12

What nails my scepticism is the call that Ferris will lose his seat, which no other poll said before now:

Kerry North:
1. Deenihan (FG)
2. Spring (Labour)
3. McEllistrim (FF)

Kerry South:
1. Sheahan (FG)
2. Healy-Rae (Ind.)
3. O'Donoghue (FF)

[Schumi]

Are all the constituency predictions online anywhere? Curious to see some of them.

[culloty82]

Are all the constituency predictions online anywhere? Curious to see some of them.

Bizarrely, Newstalk are sending the breakdowns to individuals on request, you'd think it would be easier for them to stick up a link, I'll see what I can do.

It's Excel, so can't post it, but log on to Newstalk, they'll give you the file.

https://webmailbox302.eircom.net/ser...d=57241&part=2

[BonnieShels]

RedC for PaddyPower: FG 35 Lab 21 SF 14 FF 14 Grn 4 Oth 12
Can we put to bed the notion of Taoiseach Gilmore?

[Lim till i die]

Labour are now caught between the Fine Gael rock on their right and the Sinn Fein/ULA hard place on their left.

Very hard to see where they go from here, the longer the election campaign goes on the more they could be squeezed.

Another issue which could lead to some pause for thought for them is the dismal showing of Shrieking Joan who despite being shoved to the forefront somewhat had 9% support for next finance minister, just one point ahead of Rabbite and Gilmore and far behind both Bruton and Noonan.

It's time they had a think and came out with some concrete policies, I pay fairly close attention and the only thing I'm certain of is they ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein and even then I didn't get a particularly good reason (the two actual reasons, a dread of alienating the middle class and Eamons (among others) Stickyness obviously weren't going to be mentioned but at least come up with something convincing!)

If these trends keep up not only can you forget about Gilmore for Taoiseach but you can forget about a rotating Finance ministry and you can forget about anything more than a few token cabinet posts.

Could we be in Fianna Fail propping up a minority Fine Gael government for as long as they see fit (for the good of the country of course) territory or is that just mad??

[dahamsta]

Labour's announcement that they'd rewrite the constitution and abolish the senate is actually pushing me away from them. I couldn't possibly support such utter nonsense.

[BonnieShels]

I still think that it will be FG Labour. FF are far too toxic, especially with todays revelations about Clowen and Fitzy, to even contemplate. We're getting closer and closer to an FG overall majority. Though I think they'll drop short in the end.
I said Labour would go like this a year ago and be found out. Look, they have.

[Macy]

Labour's announcement that they'd rewrite the constitution and abolish the senate is actually pushing me away from them. I couldn't possibly support such utter nonsense.

Whatever about hoping aboard the aboilish the senate bandwagon, the constitution rewrite was part of Gilmores conference speech either at the last conference or the one before. That isn't a new policy or idea, and infact was a bit out of the blue at the time as it was long before the FF apologists started to hide behind the "systems failure" excuse.

I'm not sure where I stand on the senate - probably reform over abolition tbh. However, abolition would inevitable mean a constitution rewrite, which makes FF's apparent rush job for a single amendment at general election even more laughable.

We're getting closer and closer to an FG overall majority. Though I think they'll drop short in the end.
I said Labour would go like this a year ago and be found out. Look, they have.

Once Labour are the main oppisition, I'm not sure that'd be the worst for Labour long term. FG/SF with Gilmore leader of the opposition and FF irrelevant...

[dahamsta]

There's no doubt that the senate needs reform but abolishing it is simply childish. More importantly, as I'm sure I've said here before, it's dangerous. Our current situation shouldn't leave a shadow of a doubt that the house doesn't work. Of course Gilmore won't look at the house, since that's his bread and butter.

[tetsujin1979]

didn't know where else to post this, Fine Gael's website has been hacked: http://finegael2011.com/

If it's resolved by the time you read this, here's what they replaced it with: http://twitpic.com/3okh03

[mypost]

Labour are now caught between the Fine Gael rock on their right and the Sinn Fein/ULA hard place on their left.

Very hard to see where they go from here, the longer the election campaign goes on the more they could be squeezed.

Another issue which could lead to some pause for thought for them is the dismal showing of Shrieking Joan who despite being shoved to the forefront somewhat had 9% support for next finance minister, just one point ahead of Rabbite and Gilmore and far behind both Bruton and Noonan.

It's time they had a think and came out with some concrete policies, I pay fairly close attention and the only thing I'm certain of is they ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein and even then I didn't get a particularly good reason (the two actual reasons, a dread of alienating the middle class and Eamons (among others) Stickyness obviously weren't going to be mentioned but at least come up with something convincing!)

If these trends keep up not only can you forget about Gilmore for Taoiseach but you can forget about a rotating Finance ministry and you can forget about anything more than a few token cabinet posts.

It'll comfortably be FG-Lab, with FF and SF in opposition. That'll be the 4 Parties in.

Now we're getting nearer D-Day, people are scrutinising the Soundbite King's policies, and therefore his party is slipping in the polls. He'll still be in government, but FG can call his bluff when the voting stops and the horse-trading starts.

As for the Senate, I think abolition is a bit steep, but it has to be reviewed. Failed politicians claiming huge salaries sitting two days a week is a huge expense to the State in the current climate. Bills are rarely amended, let alone rejected. I would favour suspension for the foreseeable future rather than abolition.

[Dodge]

http://www.politics.ie/fianna-fail/1...-end-week.html

Conor Lenihan's political advisor reckons Cowen's gone by end of week

[BonnieShels]

Mammy O'ROURKE on Twitter this morning:

@maryorourketd
Hey Brian, Will you please name the date. We are tired waiting.

1 hour ago via web

This comes after rumours yesterday from a big announcement that Lendahand is stepping down, which he firmly denied.

I imagine the News at One will be interesting.