Election 2011 - General

[BonnieShels]

Out out!

[Macy]

Lowry was absolutely pathetic - there was supposedly a process for FG and Labour budgetary involvement, and the FF/Green Government refused to open the books or allow genuine input.

The Greens are also absolutely pathetic and so dumb they clearly didn't see what they'd spark. If they wanted the budget and plan passed they should've kept their mouth shut. The time for leaving government "in the national interest" was firstly at the bank bailout, and more recently as soon as we'd left the bond markets.

I think if the budget is passed, Labour and FG will stand by it, as they'll be able to blame FF/Greens whilst having 6 billion out of the way.

Worst possible outcome is if FF and the Greens to fail to get the budget or finance bill through, although I wouldn't be surprised if FG abstain in that well worn cliche.

At this stage I'd prefer FF have to bring forward this budget - they'd surely struggle for double figures if they do. This is our chance to rid the state of these traitors - proper "National Interest".

[dahamsta]

I see the IMF are already throwing shapes, essentially telling us that we need to leave Fianna Fail alone and get the budget passed or they'll take their football and go home.

[BonnieShels]

So if we have FG in governement they'll p1ss off?
Already FG are sorting it out!

[Macy]

I see the IMF are already throwing shapes, essentially telling us that we need to leave Fianna Fail alone and get the budget passed or they'll take their football and go home.

Perfect excuse for FG to abstain.

[OneRedArmy]

I see the IMF are already throwing shapes, essentially telling us that we need to leave Fianna Fail alone and get the budget passed or they'll take their football and go home.

The IMF want their budget approved by whichever Government can get it through quickest.

The EU money will be conditional on said austerity budget being passed.

Thems the breaks. I'd say the IMF don't give two hoots what happen FF beyond the budget, but they see them staying in place as the best way to get the budget saving in place quickly.

They are acting in their interest, which is unsurprising.

Unless the Opposition can come up with a clever plan quickly, if they got into power right away I don't think they'll do anything other than essentially ratify the Government's budget. I don't think either FG or Labour have the balls to face down the IMF and default and even if they want to take the bailout, they haven't really had the time to tinker with the numbers.

[Kingdom]

Just to be sure, to be sure, is it not the EU Solidarity Fund that's providing financial aid rather than the IMF?

[OneRedArmy]

The new budget will be different, and is the one that is important.

3 Budgets and two elections in the next 12 months. Going to be a busy political year.

How will it differ?

[OneRedArmy]

Just to be sure, to be sure, is it not the EU Solidarity Fund that's providing financial aid rather than the IMF?

IMF advice, no money (as yet).

[John83]

Well lads, missed the news, anything happen in the free state today?

Seriously though, looking in from a semi outside point of view, things look fairly orderly. Yeah, there is much gnashing of teeth, but one would expect that. But compared to Greece everything looks like it is going well.

Compared with Greece? There'd have to be reports of cannibalism for things to look worse than...

Hang on, I just read something about FF turning on Cowen. "The knives are out." It couldn't be, could it?

[John83]

Actually, could I ask a quick question: I keep hearing the IMF and the EU named as the ones bailing us out. Are they both giving us money? The EU acting as a guarantor on an IMF loan?

[BonnieShels]

Compared with Greece? There'd have to be reports of cannibalism for things to look worse than...

Hang on, I just read something about FF turning on Cowen. "The knives are out." It couldn't be, could it?

Where did you read those reports?

[BonnieShels]

More movement on this on Politics.ie and Newstalk...

apparently Chris Andrews and Noel O'Flynn have been hinting at FG to table a motion of no-confidence in the Taoiseach tomorrow.
I smell a trap.

[backstothewall]

Compared with Greece? There'd have to be reports of cannibalism for things to look worse than...

Hang on, I just read something about FF turning on Cowen. "The knives are out." It couldn't be, could it?

Tongue was firmly in cheek John.

Realisticaly it doesn't really matter what happens now with the opposition. Its far too late in the year to organise a general election before christmas. It January whether the budget is passed or not. The stability of keeping the coalition in place until January will allow the neccesary arrangements to be made.

Best hope January 2011 has better weather than January 2010 or it'll be February before you all get to the polls

[mypost]

How will it differ?

The budget as it stands, is about as useful as East German border guards after the Berlin Wall fell. It's a total irrelevance, and purely for optics.

A new budget will have to be drawn up by the next government, only then they will have the mandate to do so by the electorate and more importantly the stability needed in which to implement it, so it's best that the provisional budget is scrapped, and let the new government be elected and implement it instead.

The rescue package is not required to be activated until next summer at the earliest. The country has enough funds until then, so passing the budget under this government is purely window-dressing, rather than competent authority.

[dahamsta]

Actually, could I ask a quick question: I keep hearing the IMF and the EU named as the ones bailing us out. Are they both giving us money? The EU acting as a guarantor on an IMF loan?

Both. The Brits have offered us a loan too.

[BonnieShels]

They could be just buying bits back to recomplete the jigsaw

[backstothewall]

The budget as it stands, is about as useful as East German border guards after the Berlin Wall fell. It's a total irrelevance, and purely for optics.

A new budget will have to be drawn up by the next government, only then they will have the mandate to do so by the electorate and more importantly the stability needed in which to implement it, so it's best that the provisional budget is scrapped, and let the new government be elected and implement it instead.

The rescue package is not required to be activated until next summer at the earliest. The country has enough funds until then, so passing the budget under this government is purely window-dressing, rather than competent authority.

Can't agree. The next government will almost certainly be bound by this budget by the EU/IMF. Although the state probably won't need to draw on the funds, the deal will be done by christmas and any changes to that deal will be done to the satisfaction of the EU/IMF, not the state. In short a FG finance minister trying to negotiate after the election will have even less room for manouvre than Brian Lenihan had last week.

They could be just buying bits back to recomplete the jigsaw

They could at least put Donegal back into the north. It would make the place look a lot neater. According the lthe last opinion poll 40% of them are Shinners so they would fit right in

[BonnieShels]

It never left the north. It's where it always was. :P
I'd swap Cavan for Fermanagh if at all possible.

[mypost]

Can't agree. The next government will almost certainly be bound by this budget by the EU/IMF. Although the state probably won't need to draw on the funds, the deal will be done by christmas and any changes to that deal will be done to the satisfaction of the EU/IMF, not the state. In short a FG finance minister trying to negotiate after the election will have even less room for manouvre than Brian Lenihan had last week.

Which is why we need an election now, in order for a new government to have the authority to implement it. Atm we effectively have no government, as the government is ending soon.

The UK have had 2 budgets this year, because of a change of government. They weren't influenced by the IMF, but they were influenced by Brussels.

Next year, we'll have an election for parliament, an election for the bill-signer, a referendum to abolish the Seanad, and possibly an election for Dublin Lord Mayor. And at least 2 budgets to implement. We'll be doing laps of the polling booths.