This country is a mess. I have lost all confidence in our political system, its corrupt, there is no leadership, very little initiative and pro active activity. Its frustrating to such a level that it is depressing.
I would strongly recommend that people read Matt Coopers book, it just highlights how this little country of ours worked during the boom years. Most of the influential people that benefited from the boom time can be attributed significant blame for the incredible mess we are now in.
What we need now is a strong government to grab a hold of things and address the gross over spending in this country. But by and large we have very poor people leading this country, illustrated last week by Brian Cowen's actions. The sad thing is that the opposition offer little hope. The labour party who appear to be the significant benefactor in the polls have threadbare policies and havent put forward real options to emerge from this mess. It is likely that whatever party takes control after the current Dail, they will spend their time blaming the previous government for our problems without real focus on the future.
The ridiculous and disgusting salaries paid to numerous heads of relatively needless quangos in this country need to be addressed, cut and where possible eliminated. The gross inefficiencies in the public sector need to finally dealt with, the age old systems and practices running through the health sector in particular should be reformed. And these measures are purely a start!!
But what looks more and more likely to arise is that the government are going to raise taxes yet again!! There is numerous historical evidence that you do not emerge from a recession that raising taxes. We have already raising taxes and significantly at that. We need to focus on cutting spending and identifying areas of real savings. Capital spending should also be curtailed but not too a significant degree. Celtic tiger overly ambitious and unnecessary projects like the dublin metro project should be abandoned for now at least.
Unfortunately this country and its people will pay for the mess, a relatively small number of people have got us all into. This relatively small elite number are by and large going to pass by without suffering any reprimand. The return to the dark days of the 80s are looming large, significant unemployment, high taxes and a brain drain of the best and brightest Irish people to work and develop other economies.
When I suggested we were in a "trough" here 2 and a half years ago, I was mocked. When I raised alarm at the booming unemployment figures every month, I was told it was only a problem in construction causing it.Originally Posted by elroy
Everybody in the country contributed to the state we're currently in. Bankers have their own cross to bear, but everybody played a role. The constant demand to get a place on the property ladder, contributed to ever rising house prices. The need to keep up with the Jones', by having two holidays a year to far flung exotic locations in many instances, and the demand for the newest cars every year was a classic case of needless showing off. The practice by retailers to round up to the extra fiver here and there, led to ever-increasing food prices, uncompetitive with other countries. Girls would think nothing over shelling out 800 quid alone for a bag in BT.
On the jobs front, those higher and higher wages and pay deals driven by unions and civil servants particularly, drove multinationals into the arms of cheaper countries. Government Ministers for no reason, voted massive pay rises for themselves. And those below them didn't go without either. Did we really need 20 "Junior" and "Ministers of State"? Those same Ministers flew on helicopters and jets halfway across the country to open pubs and restaurants, and in one case, flew 3,000 kilometres to get a hairdo. Opulent, how are you?
However, the recession was coming for 2 years before the crap hit the fan. House prices stopped rising, Northern Rock in the UK collapsed the year after, the credit crunch was suddenly not just a breakfast cereal, here Bertie told us days after the last election that we were heading for more "financially challenging" times, the construction sector disintegrated, people were losing their jobs, but despite the signs, people still insisted there was no recession. Then the banks collapsed, and there's been plenty said about them.
As for the brain drain, it won't be that severe as before, as many other countries are in the soup like us. The causes were different, but no job in London or Los Angeles, still means the same as no job in Dublin. It's as hard to find work over there as over here. We saw the crisis coming, but few if any wanted to do anything about it, until it was too late.
Last edited by mypost; 01/10/2010 at 12:22 AM.
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3 and a 1/2 years ago I was mainly based in Croatia, and saw a succession of Irish "investors" arrive since 2003 and do the most insane things, with borrowed money. I don't mean individuals who wanted someplace in the sun or an investment - though I had to seriously question some of those - but no brained idiots who were acting like big shots and going for every con artists patter imaginable, and they were dragging small time auctioneers along as cheerleaders. I'd come home on holidays and see how everyone had "a property" and how they'd be taking holidays of a lifetime at least twice a year. I was advised by one local politician in 2007 (March) not to bother coming home for a decade as there was something coming down the line. This same person stood last year in the Dail and told how he supported his parties fiscal policies and how the country was on the brink of recovery.
Of course the banks are to blame, so too the government, however comparing Ireland and Greece in this is interesting (and pointed out by a better mind than mine on another thread) - the Greek debt was governmental, ours is personal. Banks loaned money, and why not, they were making money, the men at the top were earning and the developers will all have salted away some rainy day funds and survive.
In January 2008 I decided to come back to Ireland and had a good job lined up, I went to check on taxes and even (for 2 weeks) went to sign on to get on the system, I signed off and left for what I thought would be a short spell, which lasted for anothe year. Then in January 2009 I came home (for good) and for a month tried to find work. 2 of my 4 best friends had lost their jobs, I had 2 country cousins who had never known a day off who were likewise unemployed and at the SW office I just gave up waiting to see someone.
Yet still I don't believe it is as bad as it can be and despite absolute criminals running the country, there is still hope. Anyone who is over the age of 30 here can remember how awful it was in the late 70's and early 80's, actually right through the 90's it was pretty bad. Yet there was always a way forward and I believe that this will happen again. As with any disaster, nobody wants to react and nobody (except a tiny few, usually those with power) plans ahead. After taking control of Afghanistan the Taliban were hanging people in the streets and blowing up ancient statues of Buddha, yet Western companies did business with them and USAID fed the country, and nothing happened. Warnings came out about the hardliners and dangers in the place, but nobody cared. Bush cut off aid, they blocked the pipeline, 11th of September later and we have a large group of fundies who want to go to their virgins and send unbelievers to hell. The warning signs are always there in every disaster, though as humans we're too dumb to heed them usually.
I don't see the current opposition doing anything much different and stand by my opinion that FG deliberately didn't form a government after the last election as they knew what was coming down the line, then again, they brought in George Lee so their foresight is sorely in question.
And yet the Irish media and public continue to ignore misdeeds. Eddie Hobbs was a cheerleader for badly planned and built apartments on a windswept volcanic rock where it cost a fortune to travel to. Plus he tried to con people into investing in his fund (which was constructed on quicksand and cheap credit), yet he's still a media darling preaching about cost cutting, rip off Ireland etc. Unless we cull some of the rats and have a cultural makeover, we'll recover, until the next catastrophe, but at least we'll recover.
I'm trying not to sound like a complete arse, but if yesterday or indeed the last 12 months has surprised anyone, they really should have a look at themselves and ask why.
There were enough signs 10 years ago that the country was controlled by crooks. I'd love to say the last 3 years has been a sobering lesson for the country, but it hasn't, not by a long-shot. God help us but the only hope is that the penny has to drop some time.
This country needs gutted from the top down. All state institutions are fundamentally flawed (some moreso than others) and have been filled with backscratchers and pen pushers. We get nothing, absolutely nothing, done on time. Whether NAMA was a bad idea or not is debatable, the lack of speed with which it was put in place was criminal and ensured that it failed. There is an inherent laziness and a "be seen to be doing something" approach pervades those who should be making decisions quickly and efficiently. This is reinforced by the huge payoffs for failure in the civil service and banks, that mean you really can't fail.
We fail to implement a signficant percentage of EU directives on time, not because we have the spine to disagree with them, but because we just didn't get round to it. We have a pitiful record on locking up criminals and the lack of urgency is all consuming.
We elect pork barrel politicians to fix potholes in ours streets and wonder why we've no leaders to run the country.....
Etc. !!!
P.S. I agree with Mypost on home ownership. Somewhere along the line we decided as a nation we have an inalienable right to home ownership?!?!? Despite most of the rest of the world taking the view that a roof over ones head is actually what we have a right to as a race.
Last edited by OneRedArmy; 01/10/2010 at 6:17 AM.
ORA, just on the point of home ownership - we've been greatly affected by the English disease that a man's home is his castle. From my experience it's similiar to anglicised areas in Canada (at least on the East Coast) and the USA. We are essentially (the Irish) a rural and agricultural people for whom a stamp of grass is a mark of status. I never believed in the stories of people from down the country checking out what land you had until I went to UCD, and there I met people who were bound up in the same. I don't know whether it's in our mentality because of displacement or loss, but it is similiar to parts of the former Yugoslavia where people ended up as refugees and who now view owning a property as a right.
I believe almost everyone knew it wouldn't last, which is why many went ott - get it while it's hot! David McWilliams described it very in one of his books, how we were eating, drinking, botoxing, sexing and buying like there was no tomorrow - because it happened before 1973 when a decade of boom went bust!
We also have one of the lowest protection levels for tenants though as well, which is part of the problem and drives people towards buying a home. If we had similar protections to, say Germany, more people wouldn't feel forced into buying - it would've been a double edge sword reducing demand from buy to own and buy to let both of which would've cooled the market. It should be a severe criminal offence to be an unregistered landlord. FF actually reduced tenants rights during the Ahern years.
If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.
Don't forget for years we had actual legislation that meant rent couldn't be lowered...
But do we really need another "the country is ****ed" thread. The above psot would easily have fitted in several others
54,321 sold - wws will never die - ***
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Since its inception this state has been run by Gombeen men and their ancestors. Ever since the day the Labour movement stood back and allowed the country be run by land grabbing classes we have had to suffer their rule.
People talk about the 80s and how bad they were, well let me tell you that they were not half as hard as things are going to get here. At least in the 80s people got out and marched but all their is now is apathy.
Always look on the bright side of life
This in a nutshell is exactly what needs to be done. Unfortunately, I do not believe there is a will, not alone in the current government but in the general political establishment, to carry out such measures. The gross greed, excessive spending, over the top pay rises and needless quangos (there was yet another one set up only this week as part of the new 'jobs strategy') that have characterised the last decade need ALL to be stripped back to more appropriate and realistic levels. As a politicial system, I dont believe we have strong enough characters who will implement this. However, I do believe we will eventually, be it through the IMF or EU, be forced to carry out such measures.
Hindsight is a great thing. A few years ago, everyone was racing onto the property ladder. People were borrowing funds that represented in excess of 100% of their investments. Yes individuals have to take the blame for this. Everyone started to feel they were losing out unless they bought one, two, sometimes three properties. However, this is where the government and regulation should have stepped in. They shouldve prevented the provision of 100% mortgages for example. Instead they were too busy living it up, glorifying themselves in the record tax receipts that were largely driven by a unsustainable property sector.
I work in the professional services advisory sector. On a daily basis I encounter medium sized investors who got carried away with whatever success they had encountered in Ireland and who 'diversified' their portfolio with investments in countries like Bulgaria, Czech Rep, Latvia etc. Investments that have had nothing short of disaterous consequences.
I also have come across individuals who have borrowed obscene amounts from their banks (one in particular) but due to the protection of limited liability status have now managed to walk away from this corporate debt, while still in a healthy personal position. Forgive me for my naivety but this to me does not feel just and right.
Just one point on the commentators, the see-saw brigade, whom David McWilliams is very much a member of. It is not long ago he was telling tales of how in Brian Lenihan's house he supported the imposition of a bank government gurantee. What is he saying now?!?!
Apologies for starting a new thread. I wasnt sure where this should have gone but last night I genuinely was just so angry watching primetime etc etc at the state this country is in. This is more of a wake up call, a call for action, rather than a long winding moan of the mess we find ourselves. I am fortunate, I was too young in the boom years to have generated enough cash to invest in property/shares etc etc, a few years older and I have no doubt I wouldve got caught in such a wave that would see me now in negative equity land. I count my blessings that I still have a job but its the impending increases in taxes, the cuts in funding to core services and the enormous amounts of debts that will have to be serviced by the ordinary taxpayers in Ireland for a long time to come. I genuinely do not believe we have seen the worst, just yet. We have a vicious budget to face this December. If Ireland has not made significant changes and addressed its massive deficit by the time we are required to go back to the market for funding next summer, then I think EU bail out/IMF intervention is inevitable. Will that be such a bad thing, considering the excuse for a government we have in charge?!?! Romantic Ireland is dead and gone, its with O'Leary in the grave.
Last edited by elroy; 01/10/2010 at 9:27 AM.
Elroy I think he backed a limited bank guarantee with Anglo being done away with. Before this meeting (I know the man from Croatia) he predicted that Anglo was going to be a nightmare and that the politicians bosses (developers) were up to their necks in debt, and that this would cripple the country.
Agreed on the wealthy walking away from debts, it's a little bit immoral, though this always happens. The diversified investments attitude was scary for me, I could understand people wanting to move a place to retire and get more bang for their buck (pensions). Or those who genuinely loved a spot who wanted to spend part of their year there, or for others who bought at a sensible level and did it without mortgaging or re-mortgaging (the lovely top up). And in the Irish media there were so many cheerleaders for this, including the "watchdogs". One thing I flagged up in 2007 was telling a Dublin Estate agent that Budapest was in trouble (he was selling there and had bought some apartments himself). Subsequently he removed Hungary from his portfolio and was sneered by other agents and even sued by a developer (who has since gone belly up).
Ireland is in trouble, but it's a cycle.
A total loss of independance, which ECB/ IMF intervention amonts too, would most definitely be a bad thing. You think FF was bad for selling off national assets on the cheap, wait until the IMF plunder them!
What we need is an election, with all parties putting how they'll achieve whatever target has been set on the table. The new Government would have the mandate from the people for the short term budget and for the 3 subsequent ones.
However, Dermot Ahern said an election wasn't in the "national interest" on The Last Word yesterday. Not content with bankrupting our finances, they are now bankrupting our democracy. Ignoring the opinion polls, the most they can last is two more budgets, so they have no right to outline 4 years measures, especially as they will not fully open up the books to the opposition parties.
Call an election now, we'll have a new Government by early November with a month to prepare it's first budget. Worst case scenario on the political side is the current Government falling on the budget, which is quite likely. They've no right to expect opposition support without transparency on the figures which the budget is based and real input on decisions taken in that budget. I have zero faith in FF doing either - they're probably hoping to fall on the budget to paint the opposition bad in the subsequent election campaign. National Interest me arse.
If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.
The saddest thing for me is if there was an election tomorrow FF would still get significant support. That is depressing.
Saw several people saying that yesterday, was it 24% support for FF in the last poll? Who are these people?
The Irish Times poll had it at 24% FF, 24% FG and 33% Labour I think. It really is baffling.
Man the lifeboats, politicians, bankers and builders first, the children can drown.
Tallaght Stadium Regular
FF direct employees
bankers
Developers
publicans
Could easily have got 240 of them into that poll
54,321 sold - wws will never die - ***
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Some very good points here imo.
Yes agreed, now is the time or in the next few months for an election. The main reason I say this is as you have noted, we need to present to Europe a solid four year plan. The current government cant do that because the most they will be around is around 2 years. It is about time FF were delivered a real serious message, that what they have precided over in the last few years is nothing short of a disgrace. I hope the party will be savaged in the next election. Likely? no because in certain areas the party will always have a strong vote for certain candidates.
They bankrupted our democracy a long time ago. This government should have fallen by now, if the by elections in the various areas had been called. The earliest for these elections now appears to be next year.
My only issue with a new government is that they will spend a significant amount of time excusing actions because the previous government got us into this mess etc so its not our fault etc etc. That sort of politics will do not or will not need.
Joan Burton (who i wouldnt be a big fan of) made an interesting point last night that the current government is far too secretive with its information that it is receving from the DOF. The opposition is unable to debate this information until such a point that the government have made a decision and then the information is made available. She used the example of the changeover in government in the UK recently, where the parliament was given the information updates froms its DOF to enable the opposition to formulate its policies to address the results provided by their DOF.
Also how many FFailers are in local county councils and the like, riddled with them
I think the IMF bailout is a distinct possibility. The political will for tough decisions is just not there, if the government renege on the Croke Park agreement by making further paycuts in December that will go to the wall. Then, where does that leave us? The unions and public at large crawling all over the goverment again just before they need to go back to the bond market in the first or second quarter of next year.
I'm not sure where this will end. I think the figure for Anglo isn't the correct one, but maybe a bigger problem down the line for the banks is mortgage holders. If the IMF do step in, they will have to write down mortgage values in order to get spending and confidence back. You can't cut someone's wages in half on oneside of the economy and leave the other side (the outgoings) untouched. This would mean that the profitability of the banks would again be affected. So, is this really the black hole? By that I mean, there could very well be a NAMA Part II for the man on the street. But the only problem is the man on the street can't really afford NAMA Part I.
'And Crouch must score'
Unfortunately we know what will happen if an election is called, and a non-FF led alliance takes over.
1. The new government discovers that the problem is bigger than realised.
2. An announcement to the effect is made.
3. A far harsher budget than feared is enacted.
4. The country weeps.
5. FF rally and announce that the new government is responsible for this hardship.
6. Things get worse before they get better.
7. FF continue to call into question the government's austerity package.
8. Things take a turn for the better after 3-4 years.
9. The government roll the dice and call an election based on the moderate improvement in the economy.
10. FF sweep the election, claim that the subsequent continued growth has been down to their being in government, and install themselves until the next downturn.
It's not just economies that move in cycles...
That question was less stupid, though you asked it in a profoundly stupid way.
Help me, Arthur Murphy, you're my only hope!
I don't see Cooldog doing much about this either. Another bluffer.
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