Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

**paul_oshea** · 14/04/2011, 4:54 PM

Is the carling nations cup a UEFA/FIFA recognised compeition i.e. if we beat macedonia/scotland and NI would it make any difference to getting into top 18? How would we have looked had we beaten Uruguay?

**French Toasht** · 14/04/2011, 5:10 PM

Yes friendlies count so it makes the NI, Scotland, Macedonia and potential friendly in New York against Italy absolutely crucial. Had we beaten Uruguay we probably would have climbed substantially considering they are 7th in the world. I know not many people pay attention to FIFA rankings but they are vitally important when it comes to seedings for qualification.

**paul_oshea** · 14/04/2011, 5:15 PM

They are now, thats not how it used to be. I think it should go on qualification on previous tournaments like it used to. That said we would still probably be 3rd seeds this time around, but assuming we finish 2nd again this year then we would have been 2nd for 2016.

I'm pretty sure any friendly in the US will not be FIFA recognised.

**geysir** · 14/04/2011, 5:47 PM

The seeding for the 2010 WC qualification draw was based on the FIFA rankings for the first time, afaiaa.
All official international friendlies are counted in the FIFA rankings.
The Carling/Celtic cup games are not FIFA/UEFA competitions but have the same status in regards to points in the FIFA rankings, as our friendlies in the USA, no more - no less.

**BonnieShels** · 14/04/2011, 7:19 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong but were the wc2010 qualifiers drawn in January 2008?
If that's the case why are these qualifiers for 2014 being drawn so early?

**geysir** · 14/04/2011, 9:03 PM

Has there been some change? Usually the draw for the WC qualifiers happens a few months after the Euro qualifiers are finished and vice versa.

**BonnieShels** · 14/04/2011, 10:39 PM

Echo... yeah what he said... maybe its to ensure we're Defo in the 3rd pot, you know how Sep loves us, the cwiss sunt.

**French Toasht** · 15/04/2011, 1:14 AM

Yes it is crazy that the draw is being made before the outcome of the Euro qualifiers is even known but the reasoning behind it is that this world cup will be in South America and the South American qualification having 18 games during the qualifiers is much longer than the European qualification procedure and thus always starts much earlier in advance of the tournament, thus why all the other federations draws are being made so early.

I agree with you paul o shea, the old system would have benefited us more but in saying that the current system would have benefitted us much more in the Brian Kerr era, in that he left when we were 14th in the world (primarily due to an impecable record in friendlies and always playing our strongest XI in them and not treating them for the desired purpose of experimentation).

Like for example Norway have not done anything for years, all of a sudden, they are doing well half way through their campaign and are now top seeds. But in fairness its good to see little old Montenegro getting reward for their efforts so early in their existence as a footballing nation. I think I might be right in saying Croatia beat their seeding to qualify for their first tournament ever as an independent nation in Euro 96, so it would be equally impressive if Montenegro could almost emulate such an achievement.

**Colbert Report** · 15/04/2011, 2:42 AM

Originally Posted by French Toasht

Well lads this is probably the wrong thread for this but the World Cup 2014 qualification draw takes place on July 30th 2011. The seeding will be decided purely on the latest FIFA rankings immediately before the draw. There will be 9 groups. 9 winners qualify automatically. 8 best runners up go into play offs. As it currently stands Ireland are ranked 22nd in Europe and will be a third seed. If we can get into the the top 18 by the time of the draw, we will be second seeds.

As it stands the seedings would be as such:
Pot 1:
Spain
Holland
Germany
England
Portugal
Italy
Croatia
Norway
Greece

Pot 2:
Serbia
Slovenia
Russia
France
Montenegro
Switzerland
Slovakia
Denmark
Sweden

Pot 3:
Turkey
Czech Republic
Israel
IRELAND
Ukraine
Belgium
Romania
Bosnia *** (May be disqualified)
Bulgaria

Pot 4:
Lithuania
Albania
Hungary
Belerus
Georgia
Armenia
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Poland

Pot 5:
Austria
Estonia
Latvia
Finland
Macedonia
Moldova
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
Wales

Pot 6:
Iceland
Luxembourg
Faroe Islands
Kazakhstan
Liechtenstein
Malta
Andorra
San Marino

Heres hoping we can sneak our way into the second seeds but if it were to stay as it is now, probably the worst case scenario would be to get would be Spain from the first pot and a rejuvinated France under Blanc from the second. A combination of Norway and Slovenia would be just lovely.

Why might Bosnia be disqualified?

**DannyInvincible** · 15/04/2011, 6:08 AM

They were suspended from competition on the 1st of April over their football association failing to appoint a single president in place of its three-man set-up where a Serb, Croat and Bosniak-Muslim all shared power. FIFA have since imposed a "normalisation committee" of their own to govern the association, however, enabling Bosnia to compete once again, so I don't know how likely disqualification is at this current moment in time. Probably not very.

**pineapple stu** · 15/04/2011, 8:43 AM

Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I don't know how likely disqualification is at this current moment in time. Probably not very.

Think you're right there. I don't recall a European nation ever being disqualified (for reasons other than out and out war). Some (Greece most recently) have been suspended and have fairly quickly done what UEFA wanted, and so were let back in. I'd imagine Bosnia will do the same (and I think I saw somewhere that they already have taken steps).

Draw time again though; love that time!

**Stuttgart88** · 15/04/2011, 9:40 AM

Vladimir Weiss out for the season. Who do Slovakia play in June?

**pineapple stu** · 15/04/2011, 9:52 AM

Lazy!

Andorra at home.

**Kingdom** · 15/04/2011, 9:53 AM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

Vladimir Weiss out for the season. Who do Slovakia play in June?

Andorra, in Slovakia. So all in all, it matters little. He is a decent player though, so if it means that his pre-season is only a recuperation and he's under-par for the start of next season, when we play them, then happy days. Not that I'd wish ill-will on him, or them, karma etc....

**Edgar** · 18/04/2011, 1:16 PM

Originally Posted by French Toasht

Heres hoping we can sneak our way into the second seeds but if it were to stay as it is now, probably the worst case scenario would be to get would be Spain from the first pot and a rejuvinated France under Blanc from the second. A combination of Norway and Slovenia would be just lovely.

I have you with 0.03% chance of landing in the second pot

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations

What other friendlies besides the Nations Cup do you have planned? I know Italy canceled their USA tour.

**SkStu** · 18/04/2011, 3:10 PM

Originally Posted by Edgar

I have you with 0.03% chance of landing in the second pot

so you're saying there's a chance...

**paul_oshea** · 18/04/2011, 4:22 PM

I love that moive, thats exactly what i thought when i read the 0.03%. Brilliant.

You mean, not good like one out of a hundred? I'd say more like one out of a million.

Big Gulps huh? Well see ye later guys.