Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

[Kingdom]

they were unlucky, that macedonia drew level so late on, a more experienced team would have put them away, they would now be joint top and us in 3rd...

they could be dark horses yet, if they even got a draw against russia, they would still be in contention big time.

Either way, it will probably help us in the long run if they are competitive for as long as possible. I would always, expect us to put away Armenia at Lansdowne. Armenia (I'd expect) will enjoy the joust with their former masters, it's a pity they've to go to Russia first, as I think they'd fancy themselves a bit at home, while they'll surely be eager going to Slovakia given the comprehensiveness of their victory on Friday. Who knows?

[SwanVsDalton]

Ah you're right Paul, my mistake: http://en.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/format/index.html

Guess that's one less thing to worry about.

[Duggie]

Ah you're right Paul, my mistake: http://en.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/format/index.html

Guess that's one less thing to worry about.

euro 2016 heeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrr we come...........

[SwanVsDalton]

32 teams - we can hardly fail! We're practically there, along with NI, Wales, Estonia, Armenia and the Faroe Islands....

[Closed Account 2]

My prediction of results:

26-Mar-11 Ireland* 2 v 1 *Macedonia
26-Mar-11 Andorra* 0 v 3 *Slovakia
26-Mar-11 Armenia* 1 v 1 *Russia

04-Jun-11 Russia* 3 v 1 *Armenia
04-Jun-11 Slovakia* 4 v 0 *Andorra
04-Jun-11 Macedonia* 1 v 2 *Ireland

02-Sep-11 Ireland* 2 v 0 *Slovakia
02-Sep-11 Andorra* 1 v 4 *Armenia
02-Sep-11 Russia* 2 v 1 *Macedonia

06-Sep-11 Russia* 2 v 1 *Ireland
06-Sep-11 Slovakia* 1 v 1 *Armenia
06-Sep-11 Macedonia* 3 v 0 *Andorra

07-Oct-11 Armenia* 2 v 2 *Macedonia
07-Oct-11 Andorra* 0 v 2 *Ireland
07-Oct-11 Slovakia* 1 v 1 *Russia

11-Oct-11 Ireland* 2 v 1 *Armenia
11-Oct-11 Russia* 3 v 0 *Andorra
11-Oct-11 Macedonia* 1 v 1 *Slovakia

Would give the following table:

Projected Final
1 Russia 10 7 2 1 18 8 10 23
2 Ireland 10 7 1 2 18 10 8 22
3 Slovakia 10 4 4 2 14 9 5 16
4 Armenia 10 3 4 3 19 14 5 13
5 Macedonia 10 2 3 5 13 13 0 9
6 Andorra 10 0 0 10 2 30 -28 0


I think we should get 2nd, even if we draw at home to Slovakia or draw in Skopje...

I've got the predictor in XLS format - you put in the scores it generates the table... if anyone can upload it for me (send me a PM with your email) it can be posted heere

[harpstilidie]

32 teams - we can hardly fail! We're practically there, along with NI, Wales, Estonia, Armenia and the Faroe Islands....

I think its 24 teams not 32.

[pineapple stu]

Yeah, 24 - like the 1990 World Cup.

cdfh - you reckon we'll win all the rest of our games bar one? I don't think anything I've seen so far would fill me with much confidence that that will happen.

[SwanVsDalton]

I think its 24 teams not 32.

Goddamn I'm on a bad run today...scratch Wales out of that list so.

[Closed Account 2]

Yeah, 24 - like the 1990 World Cup.

cdfh - you reckon we'll win all the rest of our games bar one? I don't think anything I've seen so far would fill me with much confidence that that will happen.

I was doing a sort of best case scenario... I think in reality we might drop 2 points (in Skopje) or even 4 (draw at home to Slovakia) - (in addition to bring nothing back from Moscow) even if we drop 4 points we could still end up pipping the Slovaks

[Stuttgart88]

Stu, I don't think for a minute we'll get those results, but the thing is they're all perfectly feasible.

I posted a few years ago an analysis of what has historically been required to get first & second in these groups. Generally you need at least 2 points per game to secure second (though we got 17 I think in the WC 2010 campaign, and still finished comfortably ahead of Bulgaria). I'm not sure what the changing group sizes and other stuff has done to change this in the meantime but if 2ppg is still the benchmark we're a point off course already. However, so are the others and Russia aren't exactly tearing ahead.

I think I used a golf analogy in the dying days of Kerr's reign and I'll do it again. We've played 7 holes out of 18 and are 1 over par. Level par is the projected cut. We need at least one birdie and no more bogeys. We've had one double-bogey (Russia) and one birdie (Armenia). We missed a good birdie putt in Slovakia.

There may only be a couple of birdie opportunities left: can we make the putts? Or will we miss the green like we did against Russia? Maybe the cut will be one or two over.

I reckon the cut may be higher, we'll hit most of the greens in regulation and putt like we have the yips! Maybe it's time for a belly putter.

[Fixer82]

My prediction of results:

26-Mar-11 Ireland* 2 v 1 *Macedonia
26-Mar-11 Andorra* 0 v 3 *Slovakia
26-Mar-11 Armenia* 1 v 1 *Russia

04-Jun-11 Russia* 3 v 1 *Armenia
04-Jun-11 Slovakia* 4 v 0 *Andorra
04-Jun-11 Macedonia* 1 v 2 *Ireland

02-Sep-11 Ireland* 2 v 0 *Slovakia
02-Sep-11 Andorra* 1 v 4 *Armenia
02-Sep-11 Russia* 2 v 1 *Macedonia

06-Sep-11 Russia* 2 v 1 *Ireland
06-Sep-11 Slovakia* 1 v 1 *Armenia
06-Sep-11 Macedonia* 3 v 0 *Andorra

07-Oct-11 Armenia* 2 v 2 *Macedonia
07-Oct-11 Andorra* 0 v 2 *Ireland
07-Oct-11 Slovakia* 1 v 1 *Russia

11-Oct-11 Ireland* 2 v 1 *Armenia
11-Oct-11 Russia* 3 v 0 *Andorra
11-Oct-11 Macedonia* 1 v 1 *Slovakia

Would give the following table:

Projected Final
1 Russia 10 7 2 1 18 8 10 23
2 Ireland 10 7 1 2 18 10 8 22
3 Slovakia 10 4 4 2 14 9 5 16
4 Armenia 10 3 4 3 19 14 5 13
5 Macedonia 10 2 3 5 13 13 0 9
6 Andorra 10 0 0 10 2 30 -28 0


I think we should get 2nd, even if we draw at home to Slovakia or draw in Skopje...

I've got the predictor in XLS format - you put in the scores it generates the table... if anyone can upload it for me (send me a PM with your email) it can be posted heere

very optimistic.
I did my own calculations and I think we'll get 11 points from remaining games

[shakermaker1982]

I have us getting 11 points as well with this current team. If we got a couple of proper full backs and two decent midfielders (plus kept Duffer fit) then 15 is possible.

[paul_oshea]

Stu, I don't think for a minute we'll get those results, but the thing is they're all perfectly feasible.

I posted a few years ago an analysis of what has historically been required to get first & second in these groups. Generally you need at least 2 points per game to secure second (though we got 17 I think in the WC 2010 campaign, and still finished comfortably ahead of Bulgaria). I'm not sure what the changing group sizes and other stuff has done to change this in the meantime but if 2ppg is still the benchmark we're a point off course already. However, so are the others and Russia aren't exactly tearing ahead.

I think I used a golf analogy in the dying days of Kerr's reign and I'll do it again. We've played 7 holes out of 18 and are 1 over par. Level par is the projected cut. We need at least one birdie and no more bogeys. We've had one double-bogey (Russia) and one birdie (Armenia). We missed a good birdie putt in Slovakia.

There may only be a couple of birdie opportunities left: can we make the putts? Or will we miss the green like we did against Russia? Maybe the cut will be one or two over.

I reckon the cut may be higher, we'll hit most of the greens in regulation and putt like we have the yips! Maybe it's time for a belly putter.

so historically to win the group, if you win all games you top the group.

I think you mean eagles there instead of birdies, assuming your analogy is stapleford. if we missed a putt in slovakia it was definitely 2 points

[seanfhear]

The present situation is a big question for Trapatoni.

Its for our next games that he will have to show his worth. It will be interesting to see if he still has the where with all to turn the situation around.

I certainly hope he can.

[legendz]

It's a good idea to expand the Euro's and give a few more side a crack at it. Looking at sides who missed out in the last play-offs for the Euro's, the competition should still be as strong as ever.

[Stuttgart88]

so historically to win the group, if you win all games you top the group.

You obviously weren't asked any questions about logic in your job interview yesterday. Yes, winning all your games will win the group. However, you can win the group without winning all your games. Totally pointless post.

[geysir]

Aw shucks- thats really harsh on Paul - at least he appears to understand these golf analogies.

wtf is a belly putter? sounds like I could do with one of them while watching these games.

[paul_oshea]

http://golf.about.com/cs/golfterms/g..._bellyputt.htm

they are the extra long putters geysir. I believe the idea behind them is a firmer, more accurate grip, as you hold it in two place as opposed to the standard golf grip. They were a fashionable thing in the early to mind 90's,

i think he knows what i was getting at.

[geysir]

That could be a dangerous thing to have in my grip when watching the next game.
I'll stick to the worry beads.

[tetsujin1979]

That could be a dangerous thing to have in my grip when watching the next game.

That's what she said!