Watched it live and I think Clegg triumphed solely on how he conducted himself. It seems like he made the most effort to engage - addressing the crowd and closely paying attention to the other speakers.
He didn't even have to do much to be fair. He just had to sit back and let Brown and Cameron bicker.
It was funny seeing Cameron mimic Clegg's approach of addressing the individuals in the crowd personally, the chameleon
Lib Dems second
Of course, this will only be a one-day wonder, and the other parties will gang up to crush Clegg, but for 24 hours at least, it's a genuine three-way contest:
Tories 33%
Lib Dems 30%
Labour 28%
Naturally, because Labour come last, they're the largest party:
Labour 263
Tories 254
Lib Dems 101
The Daily Mail (of all papers) reporting that the Lib Dems are - get this - in the lead, with 32%; the Tories have 31% and Labour 28%. What a crazy result, that would never have happened without the debate.
It'll probably change before the election, but is already highlighting the inherent unfairness in the system here because that result would still leave them about 150 seats behind Labour, who would emerge as the biggest party despite having the third-highest vote share.
Nick's still an idiot then?Originally Posted by dahamsta
Last edited by dahamsta; 18/04/2010 at 2:08 AM.
"Life is like a hair on a toilet seat. Sooner or later you are bound to get pi$$ed off."
"In this league, a draw is sometimes as good as a win" - Steve Morison
Yes. Although he probably doesn't put any credence in what the Daily Mail says.Nick's still an idiot then?
Continuing it's tradition of classy reporting, here's the Mail today: The United Nations of Nick Clegg .
Joking aside, that's a nasty, creepy little article.
I read the first paragraph, remembered where I was, and have spent the intervening period trying to figure out why I clicked it in the first place.
The Lib Dems are polling well because Clegg has moved the party towards the center, period. In a bad way. Funny that, it sounds familiar...
Even YouGov (which is rated the most reliable) is putting the Libs first now, but I'd say the Mail piece will be tame compared to what follows. The next debate's on foreign affairs, and since being pro-EU and anti-nuclear weapons won't go down well in Middle England, expect the Tories to regain a five-point lead, Labour to improve and LD to fall back to around 25%.
I am struggling to get enthusiastic about the Lib Dems. Everything we know from previous elections is that the LD's poll well early but then enough people get buyers remorse to vote for the "safe" option. He didn't win the debate - he won the battle of relative expectations
A very long way to go
DB Cooper is alive !
Yeah, the unionists in bed with the Tories;as bigoted, paranoid, arrogant and detached from reality as each other.....
But could see that right enough.
On the current polling figures the likely outcome would be that the Lib dems would be in a coalition with Labour, able to extract a lot of concessions because of their 100+ seats. Clegg hasn't really moved the party towards the centre in my view - they're still quite leftist on a lot of issues, and their headline support for tax reform, scrapping tuition fees and homosexual marriage (as opposed to civil partnership) would sit better with Labour than the Tories.
That said, current figures are likely to change. I'd be surprised if the Lib Dems retained their current ratings throughout the campaign. Also, at the death, people will go with their instincts and so a lot of people are likely to switch at the last minute back ot Labour or the Tories.
A good result for the Lib Dems would be to establish themselves as serious contenders, even if that means finishing third. 25%+ of the vote would still be a good result considering that they usually poll no more than 21%.
"Life is like a hair on a toilet seat. Sooner or later you are bound to get pi$$ed off."
"In this league, a draw is sometimes as good as a win" - Steve Morison
I'll be sticking my vote down for whoever stands for the UUP/Tories. Purely through a process of elimination, the rest of the candidates do not appeal to me at all.
UTV putting their NI leaders debate head-to-head against the Sky News one- whether that's brave or just plain daft is another question.
I imagine most people will watch the NI one cause people in NI cannot vote for the mainland parties (except in the UUP/Tories case but that's different).
There's a limited audience for political discussion programs, even in Northern Ireland. UTV's timing risks losing that proportion of it which looks wider than the single-issue headcount applying here.
Some NI parties have formal or looser links with larger national parties (Alliance-LibDem and TUV-UKIP, as well as the UUP/ Conservatives).
http://twitpic.com/1he6lp
But in many ways, it's Brown who really needs a clear win in today's debate. Cameron and Clegg just need to break even to maintain their support while Labour have been third all week. A weak performance could see voters defect to the other two parties, throwing tomorrow's polls into chaos.
The second debate appears to have made no impact- the Tories have made progress but would still have fewer seats than Labour, the Lib Dems have consolidated the previous week's gains, while Labour are still on course to be largest despite making little headway. The polls are reflecting this, varying little over recent days as voters are actively chosing a hung parliament.
You mean 'programmes'....
Lol.
And my Nordy-based contacts tell me it's the LD's & the SDLP. The Alliance Party have no relevance in British (or even probably in a notional UI one) elections, given their support is so tiny.
Your Nordy "contacts" are wrong. The Alliance Party are linked with the Liberal Democrats and are members of Liberal International and the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party. Whereas the SDLP is affiliated to the Socialist International and a member of the Party of European Socialists (which is largely misleading since they're recognised by everyone in NI as a nationalist party whose basic aim is to abolish the border , but hey. That doesn't make them LibDems).
There is currently an Alliance mayor of Belfast. Their support, though small can be influential as a balance between larger blocs.The Alliance Party have no relevance in British (or even probably in a notional UI one) elections, given their support is so tiny
Not sure what you mean by this. They've always been in the center in the sense of being the balance between two larger blocs, and also in coming second to either Labour or Tory in large parts of Britain. Where, depending on their main opponent, they can variously pretend to be either anti-one or the other.
Last edited by Gather round; 25/04/2010 at 10:37 AM.
They might be affiliated, but the policies of the LD's are closer to those of the SDLP (despite the typical paranoid illusions!).
And the Alliance Party, beyond an occasional ceremonial role, are a largely irrelevant nonentity in the context of Westminster, for reasons which should be obvious, even to you FFS.
And it's "centre".....
The horsetrading has begun in earnest already - Cameron has sent out feelers to the Lib Dems by saying he was open to PR, before changing his mind 24 hrs later, while Clegg said on the Beeb that he wouldn't vote for Brown if Labour finished third. This is just tactics as many marginals are between the Tories and Lib Dems, so denying the vote Clegg get Brown argument is all about attracting floating voters.
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