UK Election

[culloty82]

Much thanks to Gather round for his post - covered everything fairly comprehensively. Lots of sites around that turn polls into predictions, when you put today's figures (40, 32, 18) into a swingometer, you get the following:

Tories 314
Labour 266
Lib Dems 39
Others (including NI) 31

Cameron would probably rather avoid the regional parties, but if this was the final result, they'd be his easier route to becoming PM.

[Angus]

Lads, one local dynamic. I work in the IFSC which employs 9,000 people directly and thousands more in indirect employment. Forget the stereotype - this is a huge employment sector for normal people.

The EU have introduced a proposed Directive, the AIFM (Alternative Investment Fund Managers), which is, quite frankly, idiotic. It would make it immeasurably more difficult for US fund managers to do business in Europe - good old fashioned protectionism.

Anyway, the Tories are talking up opposition to this thing while the current Labour government is weak. There is now a serious rump of IFSC types praying for a Tory government

[Dodge]

Oooh fund managers think about a party with a liberal attitude to financial regulation. Controversial....

[Angus]

Oooh fund managers think about a party with a liberal attitude to financial regulation. Controversial....

Yes, good point - but if those fund managers, admittedly with a conflict of interest, decide to not do business in Ireland, then we can wave bye bye to 5 or 6 thousand jobs

[OneRedArmy]

Lads, one local dynamic. I work in the IFSC which employs 9,000 people directly and thousands more in indirect employment. Forget the stereotype - this is a huge employment sector for normal people.

The EU have introduced a proposed Directive, the AIFM (Alternative Investment Fund Managers), which is, quite frankly, idiotic. It would make it immeasurably more difficult for US fund managers to do business in Europe - good old fashioned protectionism.

Anyway, the Tories are talking up opposition to this thing while the current Labour government is weak. There is now a serious rump of IFSC types praying for a Tory government

Whilst the Directive isn't perfect the status quo isn't acceptable. I would imagine you would struggle to argue hedge funds have on balance been a force for good in the last 5 years?

Personally, if I was running a fund administrator in the IFSC I'd be welcoming legislation to try to improve Ireland's reputation as a financial Wild West.

Anyway, I digress... Getting back to the political angle, Tories being close to big finance, who'd have thunk it?

[Angus]

Whilst the Directive isn't perfect the status quo isn't acceptable. I would imagine you would struggle to argue hedge funds have on balance been a force for good in the last 5 years?

Personally, if I was running a fund administrator in the IFSC I'd be welcoming legislation to try to improve Ireland's reputation as a financial Wild West.

Anyway, I digress... Getting back to the political angle, Tories being close to big finance, who'd have thunk it?

In fact, yes I would argue that they are broadly positive. The one exception, and it is an exception, being the excessive manipulation of short sellers. Acknowledging that there are market abuses on the way up as well as the way down, on the way down, they are particularly exacerbated.

The flip argument being that short sellers actually keep companies honest. But we digress - I would argue that there is nothing wrong with the status quo. Investors into hedge funds are by and large, large institutions or professional investors, who are supposed to be able to run due diligence.

The small private investors is generally restricted from investing. And for years, those professional investors have had the option of a "regulated" fund, in ireland or Luxembourg, and have voted with their feet to the Caribbean.

Of the many many many things broken in the financial world, this is not one of them

ps - you are right on the last point. More regulation in our financial world generally is a good thing, as the environment is crazy - but in this space, where the people we are protecting do not want it, and are specifically supposed to be professionals and have minimum investments of $10m +, I am struggling to worry about them. However, I am clearly in favour of protecting folks who are, for example, desperate to get their first home and need protection from aggressive lenders etc

[culloty82]

Scotland could well play a key role after the election, Labour as always will finish miles ahead of the others, but the SNP have been running the Scottish Parliament for three years and have set a target of 20 MPs. In the likely event of a hung parliament, their main demand will be a referendum on Scottish independence, and while only a third of people would be likely to say Yes, the Scots are entitled to decide on the issue for themselves.

[Gather round]

Much thanks to Gather round for his post - covered everything fairly comprehensively

Thanks- you're far too kind

Cameron would probably rather avoid the regional parties, but if this was the final result, they'd be his easier route to becoming PM

I wouldn't call them 'regional' parties down Edinburgh or Cardiff way, the locals might be upset. The (10 or 11) Ulster unionists would do Cameron if he was just short. Unlike SNP and PC, they're all broadly conservative, and unlike the LibDems they wouldn't insist on influence over wider policy.

the SNP have been running the Scottish Parliament for three years and have set a target of 20 MPs

They're likely to win only 9-12.

In the likely event of a hung parliament

It isn't that likely- the bookies say only a 35% chance.

[Den Perry]

Are the BNP still gaining in popularity?

[culloty82]

With the FPTP system, they're unlikely to win a seat. Nick Griffin, their leader, was on BBC News running for a seat in Yorkshire, but like with UKIP, the far-right voters tend to drift back to the Tories for general elections. Will be interesting tomorrow to hear reaction to the debate, a good performance from Brown should see Labour get within striking distance, while the Lib Dems will get credit for sharing airtime with the big two, so by Monday could be back to the 3-5 percent gap that was seen at the start of the week.

[dantheman]

My predictions FWIW!

Northern Ireland:

Lagan Valley
DUP hold by 4000-5000 (safest DUp seat)
East Antrim
DUP hold by 3000-4000
East Londonderry
North Belfast
Strangford
Upper Bann
North Antrim
DUP hold by 1000-2000

East Belfast
South Belfast
UUP gain by under 1000
South Antrim
UUP gain by 1000-2000

North Down
Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Independent Unionists by 1000-2000

FoyleSDLP hold by 2000-3000
South Down
SDLP hold by 8000+ (ruane not popular)

West Belfast
Mid Ulster
Newry and Armagh
West Tyrone
SF hold by 7000+

UK:
Tory + Lib Dem coalition government (all independents discarded)

[Macy]

Didn't get to see last nights debate, but a three way debate seemed to work based on the reports. If the opinion polls here stay as they are, surely our "debate" has to include Gilmore too? Maybe we could even have an independent chair next time too, who actually stops the incumbent shouting down the other speaker(s)!

[culloty82]

Pretty much agree about the North, except I'll go for McDonnell to hold South Belfast.

In something of a surprise result, Nick Clegg was declared the winner of the first debate - he communicated his message well, but at times looked nervous and repeated himself. As for the real contenders, Brown was solid but not spectacular, stuck to facts and landed a few verbal digs, whereas Cameron was wooden, had no great ideas and didn't manage to score many points during the 90 minutes. The momentum seems to be slipping away from him, so I'd say put your money on a Labour-Lib Dem coalition.

[Dodge]

Betfair had a chart up last night showing how their market went during the debate. Conservatives slipped considerably, Labour went up. Lib Dem total seats went up a fair bit too

[bennocelt]

Looked at about 40 mins of it and I did think Clegg was on top. But what is with all the references to people they have met on the street, etc..........................

[Mr A]

Looked at about 40 mins of it and I did think Clegg was on top. But what is with all the references to people they have met on the street, etc..........................

Joe the plumber all over again?

[endabob1]

http://www.votematch.org.uk/2010/

I did mine and it matched my voting preference last time out, no longer living in the UK but it's still an interesting tool.

[Pauro 76]

And a lot of mention of their families too....

[bennocelt]

I am a UKIP voter!!!!!

[Aberdonian Stu]

I've watched about half of it (watching now on YouTube). From the opening half it's Clegg by a distance, Brown comfortably in second with Cameron a poor third. I'm quite surprised Cameron agreed to three debates, he would know from his generally not great performances in the Commons that this is an aspect of an election contest he's not very good at.